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Ken King
03-08-2005, 06:58 PM
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I am delinquent once again on getting an article up, but it seems to be getting harder and harder to come up with something fresh and new that I think would be of interest to you guys. Maybe because I don't do this for a living and I am not a professional writer (good thing, huh :lmao:) probably plays into that some, but mostly it’s just becoming difficult to come up with a subject/topic that catches my interest and hopefully yours.

Well today I was sitting around with a couple of coworkers, not much flying going on in this weird weather, and we were talking about a multitude of topics; work, weather, Social Security, taxes, and winning the Lotto. Then it hit me, since many states already make considerable funds off the Lotto, why couldn’t the nation get into the act with a national lotto with proceeds pumping up the Social Security system?

I even have a name for the game; they could call it “The American Dream”. Heck, they could even place the Lotto machines in popular Federal buildings, such as the Post Offices as there are fairly close to every community thereby making it convenient for everyone to play that wanted to. As for the initial pay out they could probably start off with a $10 million or better guaranteed minimum first prize based on the vast number of potential players that could participate in a nationwide game. I suspect that something along the lines of $50 million wouldn’t be unheard of and it certainly would generate tremendous interest amongst potential players.

It could even become so popular that the current withholdings for Social Security from our paychecks could be reduced or eliminated completely. Now wouldn’t that be something, a voluntary program that benefits us all either by reducing our withholdings or simply boosting the funds available for the benefits under current law.

To check the feasibility of this concept I looked into the state data to see the kind of money the states were making from the gaming. For those states with games it looks like in FY2002 they took in $42.4 billion in sales and reaped $13.4 billion in profit with $29 billion used for administration of the programs and winnings. FY2003 shows $45.2 billion in sales with $14.1 billion in profit with $30 billion and some change for running the games and payoffs to winners. Last year, FY2004, the states sold $48.8 billion and made $13.9 billion with $35 billion going to winnings and operations. So in just these three years the states have reaped a little more than $40 billion from gaming techniques (and there are ten states that don’t even play). Imagine what could be reaped if a Federal Lotto was developed. You know we could even allow foreign players to participate further boosting the profit margin and if a foreigner was to win we could tax the Hell out of those winnings.

I wonder why this hasn’t been proposed within our House of Representatives as a means of raising revenue. After all, it seems that lotteries aren’t new to this nation. I understand that the first lottery in “America” when the English authorized a lottery to finance the Jamestown Settlement in Virginia. Colonial lotteries used to be quite popular and successful for raising revenue for all sorts of public projects like roads, bridges, and buildings. Why not return to them or at least give them a try instead of just taking from the paychecks of hardworking Americans? I know I would prefer to voluntarily participate with a chance of becoming a “big winner” then to have more of my money just taken from me and pumped into a system that might not even survive throughout my retirement.

What do you guys think, could something like this be helpful if done on the Federal level?

mAlice
03-08-2005, 07:07 PM
I thought this was going to be an article about the cost of housing. I got as far as Lotto/Social Security and the first thing that came to mind was 'pipe dream'. I couldn't read anymore.

willie
03-08-2005, 08:51 PM
Not now. Haven't you heard the Libs cry enough?

pvineswinger
03-08-2005, 09:50 PM
I thought this was going to be an article about the cost of housing.
:yeahthat:
I know a bunch of people who are looking for homes around here.

HollowSoul
03-08-2005, 10:07 PM
i'm just guessing here, but since lotto is state run, the state it'self controlles where the profit is placed schools/roads/ect. i believe it falls completely on the state treasurer.
A national lotto i would expect would fall into the hands of the IRS:shrug: and therefore it's profits would probably end up eventually in the hands of the government and then to the war fund..."just like social security"
If it were legit though, i would play...even though i dont play state lotto's.
The "weekly" jackpots would multiply enormously! when i was in va. a few years back, i seen the payout allmost double in less than 2 weeks...and that was just va. If the national lotto was to start out at 50mil....i wouldn't be supprised if it jumped to 300mil in a similar 2 week timeframe.

Larry Gude
03-08-2005, 10:46 PM
Annual SS cost is now some 4 1/2% of GDP or somewhere around $450-500 billion dollars. It's suppossed to grow to 6%+ in the midst of the boomer surge.

Your numbers show about 25%, $13 bill, as net profit after winnings and over head on $40 some odd billion in gross receipts. SS would have to be paid out of the net end or some 40 times more than the present state numbers. Is that right?

That would be 40 times gross receipts as well or $1.6 TRILLION in ticket sales. The whole damn federal budget is only $2.5 trillion. SS (or payroll) taxes are a lot less than that now, about $500 bill +/-.

Now, if the states claim they netted $13 billion on $42 bil in sales, what you've revealed is MASSIVE fraud. There is no, zero, way that a friggin lottery only has a ROI of 25%. That means they are spending on overhead and winnings $.75 on every $1.00 they take it.

There's your story; states lying about their lottery take or being robbed. A lottery should be near reverse those numbers. They can't possibly be paying vendors any more than 20% and that's stealing. Call it another 5% to make the tickets and administer the thing.

In any event, even if the lottery turns around to 75/25 profit to expense then you'd still have to take in 25% more in gross receipts assuming zero federal over head.

Which leads to another question; I wonder how much of the 100% taken in in payroll taxes gets lost in the process?

Ken King
03-09-2005, 08:05 AM
i'm just guessing here, but since lotto is state run, the state it'self controlles where the profit is placed schools/roads/ect. i believe it falls completely on the state treasurer.
A national lotto i would expect would fall into the hands of the IRS:shrug: and therefore it's profits would probably end up eventually in the hands of the government and then to the war fund..."just like social security"
If it were legit though, i would play...even though i dont play state lotto's.
The "weekly" jackpots would multiply enormously! when i was in va. a few years back, i seen the payout allmost double in less than 2 weeks...and that was just va. If the national lotto was to start out at 50mil....i wouldn't be supprised if it jumped to 300mil in a similar 2 week timeframe.
Wouldn't it depend on how the legislation was written as to who or how the funds would be spent? This "thought" (and it is nothing more than that) was a means to supplement the Social Security funding via a voluntary means versus increased payroll taxes, reduced benefit, or any other such adverse effect.

Kain99
03-09-2005, 08:11 AM
I think this idea is pure genius! :huggy:

Ken King
03-09-2005, 08:11 AM
Annual SS cost is now some 4 1/2% of GDP or somewhere around $450-500 billion dollars. It's suppossed to grow to 6%+ in the midst of the boomer surge.

Your numbers show about 25%, $13 bill, as net profit after winnings and over head on $40 some odd billion in gross receipts. SS would have to be paid out of the net end or some 40 times more than the present state numbers. Is that right?

That would be 40 times gross receipts as well or $1.6 TRILLION in ticket sales. The whole damn federal budget is only $2.5 trillion. SS (or payroll) taxes are a lot less than that now, about $500 bill +/-.

Now, if the states claim they netted $13 billion on $42 bil in sales, what you've revealed is MASSIVE fraud. There is no, zero, way that a friggin lottery only has a ROI of 25%. That means they are spending on overhead and winnings $.75 on every $1.00 they take it.

There's your story; states lying about their lottery take or being robbed. A lottery should be near reverse those numbers. They can't possibly be paying vendors any more than 20% and that's stealing. Call it another 5% to make the tickets and administer the thing.

In any event, even if the lottery turns around to 75/25 profit to expense then you'd still have to take in 25% more in gross receipts assuming zero federal over head.

Which leads to another question; I wonder how much of the 100% taken in in payroll taxes gets lost in the process?
Larry,

Maybe that is a story that should be looked into. I found the data here http://www.naspl.org/sales&profits.html . My thoughts weren't even looking towards fraud within the various state run lottos. The site lists them by the states that run them and it looks like some are more efficient then others but they all seem to be expensive endeavors.

Ken King
03-09-2005, 08:13 AM
I think this idea is pure genius! :huggy:
:huggy: Back at you.

Larry Gude
03-09-2005, 08:30 AM
...at it's finest; shake the trees, see what falls out!

they all seem to be expensive endeavors.

Now that I have a calculator handy, $13 bil is 31% of 42 bil, so they are returning 31%. Pretty healthy in and of itself.

BUT that means 69% is 'spent' in winnings and overhead. I think we can safely say that there is NOTHING like 69% returned to gamblers...oops, I'm sorry, 'taxpayers'. I've bought lottery tickets maybe a handful of times and gambled at casinos a few more.

For, say, $10 worth of tickets, I'd have to win $7 and I don't. I win nothing to maybe a $1. Typical, right? Lottery ticket buyers HELP ME OUT HERE. What's typical?

I know casinos run odds in the neighborhood of 30-35% in the players favor meaning 65-70% against which should work out, over time, to the house keeping roughly 65% of ever dollar wagered. Casinos spend a ####load to keep people happy. I'd guess their net is around 20%, give or take 5-10% and Trump proved they can fail.

I think the people who run the lottery's for states are making a pizz pot of money. Way more than a casino and I think that is horse####.

I'm not sure how many people are represented by the $13 billion net but if it was JUST Marylanders, 5 mil of us, that's ONLY a tax increase of $260 per person to eliminate the sham ithink we're proving lotteries are.

And it'd be a hell of a lot more honest if a politician had to ask us for the dough instead if waving fantasies in our face to get it.

Larry Gude
03-09-2005, 08:52 AM
http://www.lottery.state.tx.us/info/FinancialStatementsFinal.pdf#search='lottery%20accounting'

in: 2.6 bil
out: 1.6 bil of which 1.3 bil was winnings so 300 mil in expenses

net: 1 bil for the state

So, Texas earns 38% on a dollar and gives back $.50 on the dollar.

Interesting.

They had some 20,000,000 citizens in 1999 so taxes would have had to been...

FIFTY STINKING DOLLARS PER PERSON MORE THAT YEAR sans lottery.

So, $300,000,000 is being spent ($15 per head) to avoid raising taxes $50.

dems4me
03-09-2005, 05:10 PM
:yeahthat:
I know a bunch of people who are looking for homes around here.


:yeahthat: I'm looking too but not just for a home I'm looking for an "afordable" home around here that a one income salary can pay for... :ohwell:

crabcake
03-09-2005, 10:38 PM
:yeahthat: I'm looking too but not just for a home I'm looking for an "afordable" home around here that a one income salary can pay for... :ohwell:
Good luck! Looking at housing costs in this area, I doubt I could afford to buy the lot my house sits on right now if I had to. :ohwell:

I know you don't wanna hear it, but unless there's a severe depression in this area, you're pretty much gonna be SOL unless you get a serious fixer-upper or move out of the area. :shrug:

dems4me
03-10-2005, 10:50 AM
Good luck! Looking at housing costs in this area, I doubt I could afford to buy the lot my house sits on right now if I had to. :ohwell:

I know you don't wanna hear it, but unless there's a severe depression in this area, you're pretty much gonna be SOL unless you get a serious fixer-upper or move out of the area. :shrug:


Thanks - sadly I'm aware of this fact... the boat came and left and I was looking the other direction :frown:

In all honesty... I had a shot to buy a house when I switched jobs about 7 years ago and cashed in my lucrative 401K instead of rolling it over... I was just too young at the time and wasn't ready for home ownership, let alone deciding where to buy a home -- all my family is in VA where I was born and raised, my work is in DC and my heart is in SoMd with the water, crabbing, fishing, pool halls and grity somd men. :shrug:

I don't want anyone to get the wrong idea and feel sorry for me. I claim full responsibility for my actions and my current shortcommings... Its not like life dropped me on my head while I was bee bopping down life's path. I made my bed by not investing in a home (as preached by my Grandfather) and now I'm having to lie in it.

I'm just feeling this ------> :whack: from time to time and thinking about the proverb of a "fool and his money". I'm just taking things one day at a time and maybe I'll eventually meet the right guy for me and we can have a shared income or maybe the raises will start getting better at work... the raises are so far not even near keeping up with the cost of living... especially for the SoMd areas rapid increase.

Unrelated, does anyone know what the minimum wage is if you were to get a job in Southern Maryland? I applied for a parttime job last night at a local Texaco and was wondering what the pay would be at rock bottom if I was to get it. Thanks! :huggy:

somdcrab
03-26-2005, 05:12 PM
:tool:


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