Never Frikin' Fails

[GWguy]

There were reports of the stock market not doing well as a result of the indecision over the fiscal cliff discussions. So I waited until the last minute, and it sounded grim, so I moved all my 401k assets into a 'safe' zone, very low risk, but also very low gain.

So what happens? Stocks are up over 200 points right now.

But the day isn't over yet....


I feel like Larry buying fuel oil.

[kwillia]

Originally Posted by GWguy

I feel like Larry buying fuel oil.

Perfect analogy...

[huntr1]

Originally Posted by GWguy

There were reports of the stock market not doing well as a result of the indecision over the fiscal cliff discussions. So I waited until the last minute, and it sounded grim, so I moved all my 401k assets into a 'safe' zone, very low risk, but also very low gain.

So what happens? Stocks are up over 200 points right now.

But the day isn't over yet....


I feel like Larry buying fuel oil.

Mine has been in the G fund (99%) and F fund (1%) since before Thanksgiving. I'm not making much interest, but I am not losing any $$ either. I am leaving it there for a while longer. 2, or maybe even 3, months of solid increases in the C, S & I funds before I will put my money back in any of them.

[Graymatter]

I'm killing it in my TSP. Ohh, and I didn't change anything

[itsbob]

Originally Posted by Graymatter

I'm killing it in my TSP. Ohh, and I didn't change anything

I wish it would go further in the crapper so I could accumulate MANY, MANY more shares..

[czygvtwkr]

Same here, got really lucky in 2009 after the big dip I put most of my money back into the C fund.

You take money out of stocks after a big run up and put it back in after a big dip, otherwise your just chasing the market and your going to loose.

[MMDad]

Originally Posted by czygvtwkr

Same here, got really lucky in 2009 after the big dip I put most of my money back into the C fund.

You take money out of stocks after a big run up and put it back in after a big dip, otherwise your just chasing the market and your going to loose.

Yep. I got lucky with my timing in '08-'09. Got out at around Dow 14,000, bought back in after the crash. Rode it up, and got back out at 13,000.

The current level of the Dow seems to be a bubble, and I think it will pop. The rise today was about the big players making tons of money, mixed with irrational exuberance. I'm staying out until it falls. The only question is when to get back in.

For those who are uncertain, remember that the only thing that counts is buy low and sell high. Do not wait for a fund to make solid gains before you buy in - that's called buying high. Instead do some research, look at the market stability, and try to figure out which way the market is headed. When you think it's low, buy. When you think it's high, sell.

If you ride the crash down, DO NOT sell. That's the time to be buying as much as you can.

[czygvtwkr]

Originally Posted by MMDad

If you ride the crash down, DO NOT sell. That's the time to be buying as much as you can.

Never understood how otherwise smart people could fall into that trap.

A good strategy is to set a target % for each type of fund you want to be in say 50% stocks, 25% cash and 25% bonds. If stocks took a beating your % in stocks would be less than 50% so it would be time to rebalance go get to your 50%, if stocks went on a big run and are more than 50% rebalance by moving money into cash and bonds to get to your target percentages.

My 50/25/25 was just an example, your target depends on how much risk you are willing to take.

[MMDad]

Originally Posted by czygvtwkr

Never understood how otherwise smart people could fall into that trap.

A good strategy is to set a target % for each type of fund you want to be in say 50% stocks, 25% cash and 25% bonds. If stocks took a beating your % in stocks would be less than 50% so it would be time to rebalance go get to your 50%, if stocks went on a big run and are more than 50% rebalance by moving money into cash and bonds to get to your target percentages.

My 50/25/25 was just an example, your target depends on how much risk you are willing to take.

Yep. That's a good way to do it. Trying to time the market takes a lot of research that most of us don't have the time or desire to do.

But the one simple rule everyone should live by is buy low and sell high. No matter what, don't sell low. And don't buy high unless you have solid evidence that it will continue to grow.

There's no way I'd buy gold right now unless I wanted to hold it for at least ten years. It's high now, and I don't think it will continue it's rise.

[GWguy]

Our 401k is broken up into various investment groupings, so you can mix and match from stable funds to very aggressive funds. I usually have a split of 40/40/20, the 20 being our company stock options which have done really well this year.

Overall, I gained about $90k since Jan. Waiting for todays numbers to be posted to see what happened.