SMCM Profs Predict Election Outcome

[David (Premo)]

Who Will Win? St. Mary’s College of Maryland Experts Weigh In on 2012 Elections

The 2012 elections will be tight according to faculty of the political science department at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, who are issuing their predictions for Nov. 6.

Regardless of whom they predict to win the presidency, faculty members project a narrower margin of victory for the winner than in the 2008 election. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands and the Senate will remain in Democratic hands, but narrowly, they predict. One faculty member foresees a 50-50 split in the Senate, in which case the vice president would deliver the tie-breaking vote.

See individual predictions and comments from faculty below. If you would like to get further comments from the political science department faculty before or after the elections, please contact Sahar Shafqat (c-301-655-0245) or Arminta Stanfield at 240-895-3073.



Diana Boros, assistant professor

President: Obama 288, Romney 250 (electoral votes)

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority



Michael Cain, professor

President: Obama 277, Romney 261

Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

House: Republicans 238, Democrats 197



Todd Eberly, assistant professor: “Prepare to relive Florida 2000, just not in Florida.” (Eberly provides further insight into his predictions on his blog, “The Free Stater.”)

President: Romney 279, Obama 259

Senate: Republicans 50, Democrats 50

House: Republicans 234, Democrats 201



Matt Fehrs, assistant professor

President: Obama 281, Romney 257

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority



Susan Grogan, professor

President: Obama 323, Romney 215

Senate: Democrats 52, Republican 48

House: Republican majority



Walter Hill, professor: “I would not be surprised if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College, but given the performance in the third debate, I now put Obama at 50.5% of the two party vote.”

President: Obama 303, Romney 235

Senate: Democratic majority

House: Republicans 230, Democrats 205



Kate Martin, visiting assistant professor

President: Obama 290, Romney 248

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority



Shan Sappleton, visiting assistant professor

President: Obama 290, Romney 248

Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

House: Republican majority



Sahar Shafqat, associate professor and chair: “This election will come down to Ohio, much as the 2004 election did.”

President: Romney 270, Barack Obama 268

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority

[migtig]

I love all these predictions.

So there are a total of 538 electoral votes. Some states give all their votes to one candidate, other states divide it among who got the votes.

Everybody, with all their fabulous and smart precitions, from how the electoral colleges will be split, to the popular vote precentages 49.3% to 49.7% seems to be forgetting one very important thing...

Third party candidates.

On average all the third party candidates take 5% of the popular vote. That's not being reflected at all in this year's predictions.

Ross Perot scored over 18% of the popular vote in '92. Wonder what Gary Johnson will do?

Start factoring in that, and all these predictions will change drastically.

[awpitt]

Originally Posted by migtig

I love all these predictions.

So there are a total of 538 electoral votes. Some states give all their votes to one candidate, other states divide it among who got the votes.

Everybody, with all their fabulous and smart precitions, from how the electoral colleges will be split, to the popular vote precentages 49.3% to 49.7% seems to be forgetting one very important thing...

Third party candidates.

On average all the third party candidates take 5% of the popular vote. That's not being reflected at all in this year's predictions.

Ross Perot scored over 18% of the popular vote in '92. Wonder what Gary Johnson will do?

Start factoring in that, and all these predictions will change drastically.

ME and NE split their votes. All other states are winner take all. All thrid party candidates combined will be less than 5%.

[migtig]

Originally Posted by awpitt

ME and NE split teir votes. All other states are winner take all. All thrid party candidates combined will be less than 5%.

Want to wager on that? Because on average, throughout history, total third party "no name" "not really" running candidates score 5% plus of the popular vote. When it's a bigger name third party candidate, well, the other third party candidates garner the 5% while that odd ball garners a lot more.

Ross Perot score 18.9%. Wallace scored 13.5%.

And independent polls right now are showing that Johnson is garnering 74% of the vote from 18-29 year olds. Not to mention Jill Stein is doing whatever she can, including arrest, to get her name out there.

I think this election is going to be quite interesting when the actual numbers start showing.

The mainstream polls and predictions aren't counting even the 5% for third party candidates. The numbers and predictions are flawed.

Personally, I can't wait until all these election predictors are interviewed afterwards and they are all open mouthed and slack jawed. Then they will blame Johnson and Stein for their candidate not winning. The flaw, imho, is the two party system as it stands right now.

[jrt_ms1995]

Originally Posted by migtig

Want to wager on that?

A virtual beer?

While I would like to see a Johnson landslide, he will receive less than 1,000,000 total votes, and the other "third" party candidates even fewer. Probably closer to 700,000 than 1 million for Johnson; about average for a Libertarian candidate for President. Whether or not these other candidates total 5% will depend on the apathy of the near-certain D and R supporters.

[migtig]

Originally Posted by jrt_ms1995

A virtual beer?

While I would like to see a Johnson landslide, he will receive less than 1,000,000 total votes, and the other "third" party candidates even fewer. Probably closer to 700,000 than 1 million for Johnson; about average for a Libertarian candidate for President. Whether or not these other candidates total 5% will depend on the apathy of the near-certain D and R supporters.

A virtual beer it is then.

I like numbers and history, and factoring them in, I think all the pollsters have been inaccurate in their counts.

Will Johnson win? No. I'm not stupid, though it is a nice dream. I just think he has thrown a monkey wrench into the political machine that is mostly being ignored.

[awpitt]

Originally Posted by migtig

Want to wager on that? Because on average, throughout history, total third party "no name" "not really" running candidates score 5% plus of the popular vote. When it's a bigger name third party candidate, well, the other third party candidates garner the 5% while that odd ball garners a lot more.

Ross Perot score 18.9%. Wallace scored 13.5%.

And independent polls right now are showing that Johnson is garnering 74% of the vote from 18-29 year olds. Not to mention Jill Stein is doing whatever she can, including arrest, to get her name out there.

I think this election is going to be quite interesting when the actual numbers start showing.

The mainstream polls and predictions aren't counting even the 5% for third party candidates. The numbers and predictions are flawed.

Personally, I can't wait until all these election predictors are interviewed afterwards and they are all open mouthed and slack jawed. Then they will blame Johnson and Stein for their candidate not winning. The flaw, imho, is the two party system as it stands right now.

I'll do a virtual beer wager as well. All third party candidates combined will not exceed 5%.

[jrt_ms1995]

Warning: Virtual A-B, Coors, Miller, p*ss-like-that beers will not be accepted!

This will be my 9th presidential election, and I don't think I've voted for a major party candidate in any of them (I'm sure of every one but '88).

[jrt_ms1995]

Well, looks like I owe you that virtual beer, as the Libertarian Party is reporting this morning that Johnson received more total votes that any other Libertarian Party presidential candidate in the past, with over 1.1 million. A virtual home-brewed porter is on its way to you electronically.

Governor Gary Johnson Wins Highest Vote Total Ever for Libertarian for President | Libertarian Party

[migtig]

I got you this virtual beer because nobody is actually talking about the impact it made on the election outcome.

Stone Sublimely Self-Righteous Ale



I was going to pick the AB but I thought it probably sent the wrong message.