Where's rraley???

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Check it out my fine young man!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It's changing every day but may I direct your attention to the state between Pennsylvania and Virginia as of today???

Maryland, my Maryland!

[huntr1]

WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!! Lets Go BUSH!!!!!!!!!!

[ylexot (Premo)]

I just like how Edwards' home state is going towards Bush.

[willie]

Delaware surprises me. It is supported by business but is Democratic?

[SamSpade]

Originally Posted by willie

Delaware surprises me. It is supported by business but is Democratic?

Delaware is usually Democratic. The northern area near Philly and Wilmington, especially, which is where most of its population is.

[SamSpade]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

Check it out my fine young man!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It's changing every day but may I direct your attention to the state between Pennsylvania and Virginia as of today???

Maryland, my Maryland!

I take it that you, like me, go there every day to check the latest polls.

I've also notest *massive* shifts in electoral tallies, because the webmaster uses different (but the 'latest') polls, which use different sampling methods and have vastly different results.

I'm not sure I believe a lot of it except to say that the *trend* at least is going in Bush's favor.

[Kain99]

Great Bookmark! Thanks!

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

...you know this numbers, polls and methedology stuff way better than I do.

Yeah, I look at it every day or so but I am biased as hell. Anything that trends towards Bush makes sense to me, anything towards Kerry is gotta be BS.

They talk on that site about cell phone people who never get polled, overseas ballots and, apparently, there is a huge amount of simple lying that goes on.

So, add it all up, throw in the fact that half the Democrats I know personally, Nader/Clinton voters, who say they are voting FOR Bush and I'm looking for a stampede at the end pushing Maryland and maybe New York and maybe even California for Bush.

Non ideological people, aka 'the undecideds' simply like voting for a winner and Kerry is a bigger loser than Mondale and Dukakis put together.

He's gonna walk out there in the debates and try to out flank Bush. He's gonna look like he always does; snide, fake smile and that annoying head nod he does and it will all be over. The simple truth is that he will be in WORSE shape when his record in the Senate finally takes center stage.

People don't like extremists. Bush's legislation runs from tax cuts to medicaire running wild. Kerry is one way.

Landslide.

[SamSpade]

*MOST* polls the last few days before the election in 2000 had Bush up by several points, but in fact, he lost the so-called 'popular' vote. This has happened before. In 1980, the race was seen to be neck and neck, until after the election, when Reagan beat the crap out of Carter.

The pattern seen repeatedly is that undecideds almost always go against the incumbent at the last minute. So if you're rooting for Bush, a good healthy lead in the polls might translate into a slim win at the ballot.

I'm not terribly sure anymore that polls tell us anything. But I do believe the webmaster has a valid point - polling procedures have become less accurate. You can no longer be sure about the sample you get from random telephone polling because in a close race, things like absentee ballots and overseas ballots actually change the outcome.

I don't know how accurate this statement is historically, but it always seems like the Democrat gets a tiny bounce before the election. So to me, the only way Bush wins is if he wins BIG.

I *love* the story that I first read in a George Will column about the chessmaster Nimzovich losing to someone he considered intellectually inferior. He jumped on the table, kicked off the pieces and screamed "how can I lose to this IDIOT?". Simple, you conceited moron - he's NOT an idiot. That kind of arrogance is all over Kerry - and he'll still fall prey to it even KNOWING about it going in to the debates. Kerry IS an idiot - like so many people I know, he believes that knowing a couple facts on a subject makes him an expert. I really can't believe his four point plan almost exactly mirrors Bush's. (You should read David Limbaugh's latest - he really skewers Kerry on the war).

No, experience says that a whole state doesn't shift ten points in just one week. Something's not accurate. It's nice to see Bush get a few "wins" on that site, but I've been following it for weeks, and it keeps going back and forth. So I'm not sure that it's worth 'believing'.

[rraley]

I'm here...it's been awhile but school has been hectic lately. As for the Maryland poll...if you believe it, then man, you got some issues. Survey USA is not a credible polling organization...I am maintaining my belief that Maryland falls Kerry's way by 10-15%. As for North Carolina going Bush's way, of course it will...he carried it by 13 points last time out. Where Edwards' presence on the ticket is really helping in North Carolina is in the gubernatorial and senatorial races, both which show solid leads for the Democratic candidates.

Bush is currently leading by about 3% based on my observation of all the polls, which is much lower than where he should be, and when we look at polling numbers a little deeper, we see a trend that should cause John Kerry to be leading (but he's got some serious issues himself and has run a terrible campaign since the DNC). 54% believe that America is headed on the wrong track and according to John Zogby, 52% have an unfavorable opinion of George W. Bush's job performance. Only 38% believe that Iraq was worth the casualities and the financial costs. According to NBC, 58% of Americans want a hypothetical second Bush term to be "drastically different" from his first. I mean the dynamics are there and if Kerry, who has sharpened his message lately, is able to finally reach out to voters, then my guy is gonna pull out a close victory. Remember, undecideds go to the challenger and remember, the 5% that Ralph Nader is receiving right now will slip back to 1-2% once people realize the importance of this election. And also recall the "late" nature of Democratic-inclined voters to make decisions later in the campaign cycle than GOPers.

So, what I am saying is, I am still confident that John Kerry and John Edwards will win this November.