Here Comes Newt

[ylexot (Premo)]

Got this in email from Dick Morris...

To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.

To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.

In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign. But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.

As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.

Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.

Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.

Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.

Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.

But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.

The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.

[Kyle (Premo)]

Not sure he could win but I've always like him.


Go Newt!

If only Fred Thompson would run...

[FireBrand (Premo)]

NEWT 08 !!!!

[Bruzilla]

I don't see Newt running because, like Hillary, he's unelectable. The difference is... he knows it. Newt is in a perfect position right now. As a potential candidate he's in demand on the talk shows and other forums, he gets top dollar in speaker fees, his books get lots of attention, and people are always asking for his opinion. If he runs, and loses, he's just going to be seen as a loser - just ask Bob Dole, and be quickly forgotten.

[Cletus_Vandam (Premo)]

Unfortunately any Republican has a snowball's chance in he!! in being elected to the presidency in '08. They could have Jesus Christ on the ballot and he wouldn't get 10% of the vote.

I will vote republican regardless, but I know where the majority of US is today and how they feel. They all think that Bush has screwed things up royally. Not just with the war, but just about any and everything he has touched in the past four years....

The most recent elections show how much Bush has hurt all of the republicans who were running for office. You don't have to look far, just look who's living at the Governor's mansion here in MD.

[Bruzilla]

I don't see how you tie Bush to the MD governor's mansion. I know a lot of folks who thought that Ehrlich was an effective governor... at least as effective as a Republican governor in a Blue state can be, but I thought he was pathetic. I thought his problems started on election night. You had a record high number of Republican voters, record lows of Democrat voters, and Ehrlich barely winning. After the election you had all of the usual suspects in the MD Democrat party rushing out to say that Ehrlich owed his victory to Democrats which was total BS. If Democrats had come out and voted for Ehrlich in any numbers his margin of victory would have been higher than it was. If the Democrats were right, that would mean that many of that record number of Republicans voted for KKT, which wasn't very likely.

So there you have Ehrlich cowtowing to the Democrats, and not pushing for any of the things he camapigned on, like repealing gun control laws, and getting railroaded by Dems because he thinks they're going to support him. What a putz!

O'Malley is in office because Republicans were so disappointed in the lackluster performance of Ehrlich that they stayed home rather than turn out the way they did when they put Ehrlich in office.

[BuddyLee]

Didn't the Pubs systematically throw Newt out way back when? Would they open their arms to him again?

[Cletus_Vandam (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Bruzilla

I don't see how you tie Bush to the MD governor's mansion. I know a lot of folks who thought that Ehrlich was an effective governor... at least as effective as a Republican governor in a Blue state can be, but I thought he was pathetic. I thought his problems started on election night. You had a record high number of Republican voters, record lows of Democrat voters, and Ehrlich barely winning. After the election you had all of the usual suspects in the MD Democrat party rushing out to say that Ehrlich owed his victory to Democrats which was total BS. If Democrats had come out and voted for Ehrlich in any numbers his margin of victory would have been higher than it was. If the Democrats were right, that would mean that many of that record number of Republicans voted for KKT, which wasn't very likely.

So there you have Ehrlich cowtowing to the Democrats, and not pushing for any of the things he camapigned on, like repealing gun control laws, and getting railroaded by Dems because he thinks they're going to support him. What a putz!

O'Malley is in office because Republicans were so disappointed in the lackluster performance of Ehrlich that they stayed home rather than turn out the way they did when they put Ehrlich in office.

What you say makes sense, but look at things from my point of view...

Across the board a lot of republicans lost their post or lost close elections. Bush is getting a lot of mixed reviews, even from those who he has supported-democrat and republican as well. You have to think that there are a lot of fence sitters who didn't vote republican because of Bush.

[Bird Dog]

Originally Posted by BuddyLee

Didn't the Pubs systematically throw Newt out way back when? Would they open their arms to him again?

Never threw him out, he was railroaded by the Dems.
Probably the only candidate that can pass the US Citizens exam