Russia Stands at the Crossroads

[Nonno (Premo)]

Information Dissemination: Russia Stands at the Crossroads

The world has sent a signal to Russia, your strategic objectives are acceptable. There does not appear to be any view from any particular nation suggesting opposition other than rhetoric in regards to the Russian occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The only questions yet to to find answers are in regards to what other objectives Russia may have, and if they intend to follow through in achieving all of those objectives?

With Russia in complete command of the campaign, the questions we ask differ from those of Stratfor. Stratfor is suggesting the conflict is shifting from military to political. With forces still flowing towards Georgia, we tend to think Russia has a slightly different option. Up until this point all objectives for Russia have been strategic, essentially you can describe the entire strategic intent of Russia as to secure the southern flank of Russia. The question not answered is whether objectives are also economic. In other words, rather than a shift from military objectives to political objectives for Russia as Stratfor is suggesting, we are now curious whether Russia transitions from strategic objectives towards economic objectives.

As observers looking at the strategic implications, it seems to us Russia's strategic objectives of consolidating the provinces are within the context of acceptable outcomes from the worlds point of view, but if this campaign shifts towards economic objectives specific to the oil pipelines and oil and gas regions of Georgia, one would think that is when we begin discussing red lines.