January Employment Report

[SamSpade]

Originally Posted by Tilted

That's where the different unemployment measures come in. None of them, taken alone, paints a complete picture of the situation, and all of them can be individually misleading for various reasons. It is all of them, considered as a mosaic and given appropriate respective weight depending on the circumstances and the context of the consideration, that paints the most meaningful picture - though that picture can still be somewhat misleading.

See, the observation that article made was that growth in the labor force tends to be linear, even if slow. When you have a line with a relatively constant slope beginning to slope downward, you ARE dealing with a portion of the population that isn't going to get work. It's disturbing to think the "new normal" involves as many as 5 million or more jobs that aren't going to come back at all.

In my area, we actually do produce a number at the end of our work that estimates the labor force (mainly as a check on the accuracy of the other data we publish - if it agrees with the BLS data, for example, we know we didn't miss anything). It's been basically flat for quite a while now.

[SamSpade]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

That would not be a good policy.

The White Rabbit put on his spectacles. 'Where shall I begin, please your Majesty?' he asked.
'Begin at the beginning,' the King said gravely, 'and go on till you come to the end: then stop.'




The key to brevity is in observing the last two words.

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by SamSpade

It's disturbing to think the "new normal" involves as many as 5 million or more jobs that aren't going to come back at all.

That presumes we continue to do what is NOT working for the nation as a whole; excess government.

Which seems a pretty safe bet.

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by SamSpade

See, the observation that article made was that growth in the labor force tends to be linear, even if slow. When you have a line with a relatively constant slope beginning to slope downward, you ARE dealing with a portion of the population that isn't going to get work. It's disturbing to think the "new normal" involves as many as 5 million or more jobs that aren't going to come back at all.

In my area, we actually do produce a number at the end of our work that estimates the labor force (mainly as a check on the accuracy of the other data we publish - if it agrees with the BLS data, for example, we know we didn't miss anything). It's been basically flat for quite a while now.

I suspect we are going to see a new normal going forward with regard to the participation rate. However, it should probably be noted that this new normal would be replacing an old normal that itself wasn't all that old (20 or so years). Prior to about 1970, the participation rate remained around or below 60%. Over the course of the next 2 decades, it climbed steadily to where it essentially plateaued during the boom that was much of the 90's and 00's (i.e. 66-67%). At its current level (about 64%), it is still well above its pre-1970 level.

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Tilted

I suspect we are going to see a new normal going forward with regard to the participation rate. However, it should probably be noted that this new normal would be replacing an old normal that itself wasn't all that old (20 or so years). Prior to about 1970, the participation rate remained around or below 60%. Over the course of the next 2 decades, it climbed steadily to where it essentially plateaued during the boom that was much of the 90's and 00's (i.e. 66-67%). At its current level (about 64%), it is still well above its pre-1970 level.

Could there be a better example than that of why the fed needs to focus on the dollar, protecting it, and enough with this jobs business?

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

Could there be a better example than that of why the fed needs to focus on the dollar, protecting it, and enough with this jobs business?

You obviously aren't going to find a sparring partner in me on this one.

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Tilted

You obviously aren't going to find a sparring partner in me on this one.

There's a platform for us; Fed policy should be about protecting the dollar as a store of value for the citizen.

[Tilted (Premo)]

Market's Dirty Little Secret: 9% Unemployment Just Fine

This article makes several important points, and I agree with all of them (not to include the specific Goldman estimates).