April Employment Report

[Tilted (Premo)]

April Nonfarm Payrolls: +115,000

March Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to +154,000 from +120,000

February Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to +259,000 from +240,000

Unemployment Rate: 8.1% (from 8.2%)

Participation Rate: 63.6% (from 63.8%)

Average Hourly Earnings: +0.0%

Private Sector April Payrolls: +130,000

Alternate underemployment measures:

U-4: 8.7% (from 8.7%)
U-5: 9.5% (from 9.6%)
U-6: 14.5% (from 14.5%)

Link to the report.


This is a second consecutive not real good report, though there were upward revisions to the February and March payroll numbers. The drop in the unemployment rate was, like last month, the bad kind. The number of employed people (i.e. in the Household Survey) fell by 169,000 even though the number of unemployed people fell 173,000, meaning that the drop in the headline unemployment rate came from people falling out of the labor force (-342,000) rather than from people on-net finding employment. It seems pretty clear that we've reached a point where a lot of people are finally losing their unemployment benefits and, since they didn't need to keep looking for work to keep getting the benefits, have stopped looking for work. How many of those really wanted work and how many were just doing so in order to get the benefits? Who knows, but I'd think if you really wanted and needed work that losing your benefits would make you look even harder than you had been, not stop looking altogether. At any rate, that doesn't change the reality that this month's improvement in the headline unemployment rate isn't really an improvement.

Looking over some of the more specific data in this report, I think the general consensus about what the last couple of reports are telling us is mostly correct. The unusually good weather this winter pulled forward some of the employment gains that traditionally come in the Spring. So, those really good employment reports from the prior months (e.g. January, February) weren't quite as good as they seemed to be and these last couple of reports are suffering from some of the weather benefit having been shifted onto those prior reports. If you take all the reports as a whole (which is the only way they really matter, individual reports don't really give a full picture), as well as look at other indicators, you see that the employment situation is generally trending in the right direction but it's moving agonizingly slow. The situation is neither as rosy as prior reports had painted it nor as disappointing as the last couple of reports have suggested.

[philibusters]

I always appreciate your balance analysis.

[Sweet 16]

Originally Posted by Tilted

April Nonfarm Payrolls: +115,000

March Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to +154,000 from +120,000

February Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to +259,000 from +240,000

Unemployment Rate: 8.1% (from 8.2%)

Participation Rate: 63.6% (from 63.8%)

Average Hourly Earnings: +0.0%

Private Sector April Payrolls: +130,000

Alternate underemployment measures:

U-4: 8.7% (from 8.7%)
U-5: 9.5% (from 9.6%)
U-6: 14.5% (from 14.5%)

Link to the report.


This is a second consecutive not real good report, though there were upward revisions to the February and March payroll numbers. The drop in the unemployment rate was, like last month, the bad kind. The number of employed people (i.e. in the Household Survey) fell by 169,000 even though the number of unemployed people fell 173,000, meaning that the drop in the headline unemployment rate came from people falling out of the labor force (-342,000) rather than from people on-net finding employment. It seems pretty clear that we've reached a point where a lot of people are finally losing their unemployment benefits and, since they didn't need to keep looking for work to keep getting the benefits, have stopped looking for work. How many of those really wanted work and how many were just doing so in order to get the benefits? Who knows, but I'd think if you really wanted and needed work that losing your benefits would make you look even harder than you had been, not stop looking altogether. At any rate, that doesn't change the reality that this month's improvement in the headline unemployment rate isn't really an improvement.

Looking over some of the more specific data in this report, I think the general consensus about what the last couple of reports are telling us is mostly correct. The unusually good weather this winter pulled forward some of the employment gains that traditionally come in the Spring. So, those really good employment reports from the prior months (e.g. January, February) weren't quite as good as they seemed to be and these last couple of reports are suffering from some of the weather benefit having been shifted onto those prior reports. If you take all the reports as a whole (which is the only way they really matter, individual reports don't really give a full picture), as well as look at other indicators, you see that the employment situation is generally trending in the right direction but it's moving agonizingly slow. The situation is neither as rosy as prior reports had painted it nor as disappointing as the last couple of reports have suggested.

I don't get this either, although I suppose if you've been looking for over a year and haven't gotten a job, you might be inclined to take a break as it can be exhausting and very frustrating. Just like a real job!

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by philibusters

I always appreciate your balance analysis.

Thank you, and you're welcome.

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Sweet 16

I don't get this either, although I suppose if you've been looking for over a year and haven't gotten a job, you might be inclined to take a break as it can be exhausting and very frustrating. Just like a real job!

That's a good point.

The thing is though, it takes very little to qualify as looking for work (i.e. for purposes of the Household Employment Survey, not when it comes to being able to collect unemployment benefits). If you had made one phone call to ask if someone was hiring within the previous 4 week period, you qualified as in the labor force (i.e. as unemployed).