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View Poll Results: What will the Supreme Court do?
Uphold the individual mandate. 5 12.82%
Throw out the mandate but keep the rest of the PPACA. 4 10.26%
Throw out the mandate and part, but not all, of the PPACA. 8 20.51%
Throw out the mandate and all of the PPACA. 22 56.41%
Voters: 39. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-20-2012, 08:22 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by PsyOps View Post
I completely disagree. Finding Obamacare unconstitutional shows how fatally flawed Obama’s policies and philosophies are. It would show Americans (at least it should) how defiant he is against adhering to the constitution.
I think that's quite naive. Almost no one is going to change their mind about whether they want the PPACA based on whether the Supreme Court throws it out. If they support it, they'll be upset at the Supreme Court for throwing it out not at the President for helping to get it passed. On the other hand, if it is upheld people that oppose it won't all of a sudden support it. They'll be upset at the Supreme Court for upholding it (as well as still upset at the Congress and President that enacted it) rather than start praising the President for helping to get it passed.

Look at the Citizens United decision. People that supported the unequally applied limits on political speech in question there didn't suddenly realize the folly of their position when those unConstitutional limits were thrown out. Rather, they've been vilifying the Court for it ever since. Had the decision gone the other way, I'd not have changed my mind and started thinking the law was advisable or Constitutional. I'd have been disappointed in the Supreme Court for making what I knew to be a wrong decision and disheartened that we still had those horrible, unequally applied, speech limits in place. The Citizens United ruling fired up supporters of those limits and gave them (misleading) talking points with which to fire up others, it didn't cause them to change their mind about whether we should have the limits.

What's in play here, with regard to the health care rulings, are people's passions not their positions. Their level of interest, the intensity of their motivation, the importance of this issue to them in the upcoming elections is what might be affected. If the entire PPACA is thrown out, that will be one less arrow in Mr. Romney's quiver to motivate supporters to come to the polls and people on the fence to land on his side. It takes the 'I'll repeal Obamacare' message away from him, at least to a large degree. At the same time, it gives President Obama another arrow to stir up his base. 'Look at this activist Court overturning the will of the people, we can't afford to let them put more conservatives on the Court in the next four years.' 'I'll push for something to replace the PPACA and provide health care to the millions of Americans who now won't have it because of what the Court did.'

Whichever way the health care decisions go, people on one side of the issue or the other are going to be hot about it. For the most part, they aren't going to change sides realizing that their position - their support or opposition - had been wrong. Let me ask you: If the Supreme Court upholds the mandate, is that going to make you realize that Congress and the President didn't do anything wrong in passing the PPACA - that it's a solid, Constitutional law? Even more to the point, is it going to make you more likely to support President Obama realizing that he isn't the great defier of the Constitution that you believe him to be?
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Old 06-20-2012, 08:25 AM   #52
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I say they will wait till Friday since people are in a better mood and news coverage is watered down over the weekend!
If the decision comes this week, it won't be on Friday it will be on Thursday. The Supreme Court advises ahead of time as to what days it will be releasing opinions (though not which opinions it will be releasing). It's going to release opinions tomorrow.
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Old 06-20-2012, 09:18 AM   #53
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If the decision comes this week, it won't be on Friday it will be on Thursday. The Supreme Court advises ahead of time as to what days it will be releasing opinions (though not which opinions it will be releasing). It's going to release opinions tomorrow.
Will it definitely be this week? Won't there be more releases after this week?
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Old 06-20-2012, 09:31 AM   #54
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Will it definitely be this week? Won't there be more releases after this week?
No and yes. I think it's more likely that it comes next week, but tomorrow is possible. There are still about 10 decisions due in addition to the health care decision(s). One of them is in Arizona v. U.S., the case relating to Arizona's illegal immigration law (S.B. 1070). That case will probably create some buzz as well.
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Old 06-20-2012, 10:23 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by Tilted View Post
I think that's quite naive. Almost no one is going to change their mind about whether they want the PPACA based on whether the Supreme Court throws it out. If they support it, they'll be upset at the Supreme Court for throwing it out not at the President for helping to get it passed. On the other hand, if it is upheld people that oppose it won't all of a sudden support it. They'll be upset at the Supreme Court for upholding it (as well as still upset at the Congress and President that enacted it) rather than start praising the President for helping to get it passed.
Perhaps I am naïve. Or perhaps it’s naïve to believe most folks out there bother to educate themselves on this enough to know in any definitive way about the constitutionality of Obamacare. Maybe folks are waiting for what the Supreme Court is going to decide and go with that. When only about half of voters bother to vote in presidential elections and about 27% bother to vote in off elections, I think there is a pretty high level of complacency among voters and allow things like this to help them make their minds up about things.

That’s not really my point… I think people need more convincing about who Obama is. For as many things he has done to show what a socialist he is, he is still very popular. When you have a president that can unilaterally nix existing law (immigrations law) without congress, and people are still supporting him, shows me there are an awful lot of people that remain uninformed. When you look at what Holder is doing, our chief law enforcement officer, can you honestly say Obama should be anywhere near as popular as he is? Can anyone, with an ounce of honesty, say this president has our laws and the constitution in his best interest?

I just don’t get that people are paying that much attention; because if they were, his poll numbers would be in the dirt.
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Old 06-20-2012, 10:33 AM   #56
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And the Supreme Court rules against the administration it will energize Obama's liberal base.
He already has his liberal base. He doesn't need to energize them. If he wants to win the election, he needs to attract the centrists.
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Old 06-20-2012, 11:21 AM   #57
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He already has his liberal base. He doesn't need to energize them. If he wants to win the election, he needs to attract the centrists.
Wasn't there a lot of discussion recently that the non-black liberal base was suffering buyer's remorse or even malaise over their foolish mistake in 2008? Didn't they predict a lower turnout for the not-racially-energized left? Wouldn't a defeat of another entitlement by the Supreme Court give the liberals who don't claim historical slavery as the root of all evil some motivation to get that half-white President reelected?
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Old 06-20-2012, 01:28 PM   #58
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He already has his liberal base. He doesn't need to energize them. If he wants to win the election, he needs to attract the centrists.
I can tell just from facebook that the his 2008 is not as excited. For example one group that was very supportive of him in 2008 was people under 30 and there is not near as much excitement about 2012 campaign as his 2008 campaign. Having a boogeyman on the healthcare issue in the form of the Supreme Court along with his recent immigration announcement to energize hispanic voters may help him with two groups that went strongly for him in 2008.
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Old 06-21-2012, 08:47 AM   #59
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Perhaps I am naïve. Or perhaps it’s naïve to believe most folks out there bother to educate themselves on this enough to know in any definitive way about the constitutionality of Obamacare. Maybe folks are waiting for what the Supreme Court is going to decide and go with that. When only about half of voters bother to vote in presidential elections and about 27% bother to vote in off elections, I think there is a pretty high level of complacency among voters and allow things like this to help them make their minds up about things.

That’s not really my point… I think people need more convincing about who Obama is. For as many things he has done to show what a socialist he is, he is still very popular. When you have a president that can unilaterally nix existing law (immigrations law) without congress, and people are still supporting him, shows me there are an awful lot of people that remain uninformed. When you look at what Holder is doing, our chief law enforcement officer, can you honestly say Obama should be anywhere near as popular as he is? Can anyone, with an ounce of honesty, say this president has our laws and the constitution in his best interest?

I just don’t get that people are paying that much attention; because if they were, his poll numbers would be in the dirt.
Sure. A lot of people don't have much respect for the Constitution. Heck, many people that are ardent in their supposed respect for our Constitution in the abstract belie that respect when discussing specifics. Many people claim to want to see it adhered to then disregard it, or offer some ridiculous interpretation of it, when it would rightfully get in the way of their policy preferences. I would not exalt President Obama's respect for our Constitution, but many of his critics are guilty of not respecting it themselves - their general rhetoric purports reverence for it, but their actions and policy positions reveal apathy or even disdain. We see it everywhere in the realm of politics, including here in these forums. There doesn't seem to be a lot of sincere allegiance to the Constitution, even among those that discuss such things.

None of that alters the accuracy of what I said, which you disagreed with, though. Do you really believe that a meaningful number of people will change their mind about whether they support the PPACA (in its entirety, not just the mandate) based on what the Supreme Court rules? That they'd decide President Obama was wrong to have pushed for it because the Supreme Court throws it out? I'll ask of you again: If the Supreme Court says that the mandate is indeed Constitutional, will that redeem his respect for our Constitution in your eyes? Or will you think that the Supreme Court got it wrong? Will it improve your opinion of President Obama? Supreme Court decisions, to the extent they sway hearts and minds with regard to the propriety of policy at all, only do so over time, e.g., as with the Brown v. Board decision.

Moving off the original topic (i.e. whether the Supreme Court striking down the PPACA would help President Obama's reelection chances) and back to what you're talking about now, I'd make a couple of points in response to what you said. As I've already suggested, I wouldn't hold President Obama up as a great respecter of our Constitution, I'd argue to the contrary. But the PPACA isn't a great illustration to the contrary, at least not to the extent that we're going to respect the Supreme Court's authority with regard to Constitutional interpretation and expect him to do the same. The advocates of the PPACA (i.e. the mandate in particular) had good reason to believe that the mandate didn't violate the Constitution so far as the Court was concerned. The basic rationale that the Court has carved out over the years probably supports the mandate's Constitutionality more than it refutes it. The Supreme Court may well decide now that the mandate violates the Constitution, but in doing so it will be creating new rules not merely applying the existing ones objectively.

It was reasonable for the President to think that the mandate was allowable. The past reasoning of the Supreme Court, with regard to the Commerce and Necessary and Proper Clauses, is in my view wrong and pretty clearly so. But it has been the reasoning of the Supreme Court, supposedly the ultimate decider-er, nonetheless. President Obama has been disrespectful of the Supreme Court at times and he should be criticized for that. But in this instance his position is not disrespectful of the Court, it's deferential to it (not based on some grand principle or inherent respect for the Court I think, but based on convenience - in this case, accepting what the Court has said is convenient to what President Obama wants as a matter of policy). It is we that oppose the mandate and the PPACA that are asking the high Court to change its mind about what the Constitution allows (and, in doing so, expecting Justices Scalia and Kennedy to demonstrate a bit of intellectual hypocrisy, btw).

And the second point: What immigration laws are you suggesting President Obama has nixed? I'd assume you're referring to the recent announcement about not deporting illegal aliens that were brought here as minors? I had this conversation somewhere with ETC a few days ago, so I won't rehash it here. I'll just ask (what is mostly a rhetorical question): Have you read the laws which you suggest the President has nixed so that you know what they actually say, or are you just assuming that they say what you hope (or would think) that they say? I'm guessing what they actually say isn't what you hope (and seem to assume) that they say. President Obama may be nixing, or bypassing, or failing to enforce, what you hope our immigration laws say; but I don't see where he's doing those things with regard to what our immigration laws actually do say.

I suggest this sincerely, read the immigration chapter yourself (Chapter 12 of Title 8 of U.S. Code) so that you know for yourself what it says and doesn't say. If you don't like what it says, argue for changes that you think need to be made. But if we're going to take positions and make assertions based on what our laws say, it would help for us to know what our laws say. I suggest this to you only because I think you are among a too small number that would prefer to be fair and accurate in your arguments and positions. A lot of people don't seem to care, they'd rather be ignorant if that means being able to make specious arguments in support of their desires or positions, or against people they don't like. I wouldn't waste my time (sincerely) suggesting that they actually figure out what they're talking about before they spout off about it. For some, specific ignorance seems to be a feature rather than a bug.

I don't see that being the case with you and I hope I've not offended you with my comments, that is not my intent.
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Old 06-21-2012, 09:36 AM   #60
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Okay, I flipped a coin. I'm going with option #1 - the mandate is upheld. If we get a bunch of opinions today and health care isn't among them, I may change my prediction based on who authored today's majority opinions (and thus who is left without a majority opinion from the March sitting).

So, here are my guesses on the main questions:

(1) Does the Anti-Injunction Act bar a pre-enforcement challenge to the mandate? No.

(2) If no for (1), is the mandate Constitutional? Yes.

(3) If no for (2), how much of the PPACA is to be thrown out? The mandate and related provisions (e.g. community rating, must-issue) are thrown out, much of the law is left in force.

(4) Is the Medicaid expansion Constitutional? Yes.

(5) If no for (4), is the rest of the PPACA to be thrown out. No, just the Medicaid provisions.

I'm gonna speculate wildly and guess that Justice Kennedy writes the majority opinion. In essence, he says that mandates are almost never Constitutional but that this one is because of some unusual / exceptional circumstances. He fumbles over establishing principles whereby future mandates would be considered with the takeaway being this message to Congress: Okay, you get this one, but no more - most any other mandate you try to enact will not pass muster. Justices Scalia and Thomas write separate dissents. Chief Justice Roberts writes another dissent that reads only: "Seriously? You have got to be kidding me." Justice Scalia's opinion is the primary dissent being joined by the Chief Justice and Justice Alito and, maybe, Justice Thomas. Either Justice Ginsburg or Justice Breyer writes a concurrence joined by the other and Justices Sotomayor and Kagan.

Of course, all of that changes if the vote goes the other way - if the mandate is struck down. One thing I think is close to certain - Justice Thomas will write an opinion but it won't be the majority opinion. If the mandate is struck down, it will be an unjoined concurrence. If the mandate is upheld, it will be a dissent that is either unjoined or joined by only Justice Scalia.

I also think there's a fair chance that we get a separate majority opinion (and dissent if there is any) for the Medicaid issue.
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You have it all wrong President Obama... The risk of death isn't the price we pay for liberty, the risk of death is the price we pay for life. The price we pay for liberty is being accountable for our own actions - that, and the burden of holding others individually accountable for theirs.
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