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Old 02-01-2008, 03:35 PM   #21 (permalink)
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This is going to be the most screwed up election I've ever seen.

If it helps, the Democrats are no better off. The only way that Hillary can win is if she really ticks off the blacks, and blacks have longer memories than conservatives when it comes to remembering who's ticked them off. So if Hillary wins, she loses a major segment of black voters who will sit the election out (shades of KKT's election.) If Obama wins, the women will be ticked (but they'll get over it) but the real loss will be the Hispanic vote. The Hispanic and Black communities have been at odds for decades as they both vie for the same entitlement money, and the distrust between the two groups is immense. So Hillary is going to lose the blacks, and Obama will lose the Hispanics.
 
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:37 PM   #22 (permalink)
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This is going to be the most screwed up election I've ever seen.
From my point of view, I'm in a no-lose situation from here on out.

First, no matter who gets elected, they're still going to be better than Bush. So the situation's already improved, automatically.

Secondly, the Republicans who really would have annoyed me are out of the running...so I don't have to stress that.

Third, if it does end up being Hillary vs. McCain...it's going to be really fun to watch the Righties implode with disgust. I'm even expecting at least a few to suffer a Britneyesque meltdown.

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Old 02-01-2008, 03:42 PM   #23 (permalink)
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I don't think you're going to see much breaking down. A lot of the conservatives I talk to have already decided that we need to write-off 2008, and focus on 2012. I'm hoping that by then we can have Condi Rice, George Allen, or Matt Blunt warmed up and ready to go.
 
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:43 PM   #24 (permalink)
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If it helps, the Democrats are no better off. The only way that Hillary can win is if she really ticks off the blacks, and blacks have longer memories than conservatives when it comes to remembering who's ticked them off. So if Hillary wins, she loses a major segment of black voters who will sit the election out (shades of KKT's election.) If Obama wins, the women will be ticked (but they'll get over it) but the real loss will be the Hispanic vote. The Hispanic and Black communities have been at odds for decades as they both vie for the same entitlement money, and the distrust between the two groups is immense. So Hillary is going to lose the blacks, and Obama will lose the Hispanics.
There is the possibility that if Hillary wins, Obama could be her running mate. That ticket would be unstoppable, as Democrats who may not have wanted to vote for Hillary may do so with Barrack on board. Plus both of their strong bases will be combined.

It also sets Obama up very nicely to run for President after his stint as VP.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:26 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I think she has finally lost her mind. Must be the anorexia.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:28 PM   #26 (permalink)
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I'll be voting in the primary, I always do. I will be voting for Romney.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:29 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I don't think you're going to see much breaking down. A lot of the conservatives I talk to have already decided that we need to write-off 2008, and focus on 2012. I'm hoping that by then we can have Condi Rice, George Allen, or Matt Blunt warmed up and ready to go.
Condi's going to have a whole lotta 'splainin' to do if she ever even thinks of running for president. She's connected at the hip (among other things... ) to Dubya and his policies.

You think Hillary's having problems defending her vote authorizing military force against Iraq? That's a walk in the park compared to what Condi would have to explain away.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:31 PM   #28 (permalink)
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It also sets Obama up very nicely to run for President after his stint as VP.
I don't see that happening. Although I hate to admit it, there are still a lot of folks in the country who aren't happy with the idea of a woman president or a black president. Hillary knows this, as does Obama, so I can't see them selecting one another as running mates as it would cost them too many votes. Only the really hardcore Dems think Clinton/Obama is a dream ticket.

Also, the reality for Obama is whether he picks Hillary, or Hillary picks him, Bill is coming along for the ride. If Obama is VP, he's gonna get bullied around and be irrelevent. If he wins, he'll have to always be answering the question "did you run this past President Clinton? What does he think?" I can't see Obama giving up on being the new leader of black americans to become a "boy" to Bill/Hill.

I can see Hillary picking Evan Bayh or Mark Warner, probably Warner. That would give her a popular, moderate, governor for a running mate, which would offset her woman and senate-only experience issues. Either man would also be a good pick for Obama as well.
 
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:35 PM   #29 (permalink)
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You think Hillary's having problems defending her vote authorizing military force against Iraq? That's a walk in the park compared to what Condi would have to explain away.
What problem is Hillary having? She's been all over the board on Iraq, and everyone knows she's not going to pull the troops out if she's elected.... yet she's still the frontrunner.

The only place in the country where a majority of Americans are opposed to the war is in the papers. In the real World, most folks are glad we're there and taking the war to the enemy. Condi's been a rock-solid supporter of being agressive with terrorists, and that resonates with more voters than anti-war messages.
 
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:41 PM   #30 (permalink)
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I don't see that happening. Although I hate to admit it, there are still a lot of folks in the country who aren't happy with the idea of a woman president or a black president. Hillary knows this, as does Obama, so I can't see them selecting one another as running mates as it would cost them too many votes. Only the really hardcore Dems think Clinton/Obama is a dream ticket.

Also, the reality for Obama is whether he picks Hillary, or Hillary picks him, Bill is coming along for the ride. If Obama is VP, he's gonna get bullied around and be irrelevent. If he wins, he'll have to always be answering the question "did you run this past President Clinton? What does he think?" I can't see Obama giving up on being the new leader of black americans to become a "boy" to Bill/Hill.

I can see Hillary picking Evan Bayh or Mark Warner, probably Warner. That would give her a popular, moderate, governor for a running mate, which would offset her woman and senate-only experience issues. Either man would also be a good pick for Obama as well.
It would have to be a Clinton/Obama ticket. Hillary's ego would never allow her to run as anybody's VP. Plus, if she's ever going to be President, it's got to be this year. I think if the Bush-Clinton-Bush cycle is broken, it's done.

You're right about the folks that would never vote for a black or a woman...but they're predominantly Republican, and would never have voted for either of them, anyways.

I'm not black...so I can't address how they may view Barrack as playing "boy" to Hillary as her VP. But, I don't think it would take much to get them to see him as America's first black VP, instead as being Hillary's subordinate.

Also, his stint as VP would automatically eliminate the experience argument from his opponents' playbooks. Experience is his only major weakness in this year's election.
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