Making Decisions

[nhboy (Premo)]

"I’m fascinated by how people make decisions when faced with lots of unknowns, such as when they pick a presidential candidate to support.

The usual method, as far as I can tell, is to pick what you think is the most important of the unknowns, take your best guess about it, and base your entire decision on that one factor. For example, you might say, “That candidate would be better at boosting the economy.” But you don’t really know. Even the experts don’t know.

The “guessing about unknowns” approach makes sense if you can reliable assign odds to the unknown. In reality, that’s rarely the case. So I take a different approach. I make my decision entirely on the elements I know for sure.

Take the war in Iraq as an example for this method of decision making. While I have a preference for leaving soon, I have no way of knowing whether that makes the world a safer or more dangerous place in the long run. I’ve heard good arguments both ways. But I do know for certain that fewer American soldiers would be targets if they left. And I know that staying is a lot more expensive than leaving. Anything else I think I “know” about Iraq is a hunch at best. So based on what I know for sure, I favor an early pull-out.

On the economy, immigration, health care, and the handling of special interest groups, I have no idea if Obama or Clinton or McCain would handle things better. I don’t even know if the liberals would raise my taxes more than the conservative. Those are all complete unknowns to me.

So what are the knowns? Here’s my starter list:"

LINK

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

...is why we have a declaration of independence, a constitution, the bill of rights and our amendments and an amendment process; they provide a backbone of reason to work against for any given idea or policy.

Which is why it is so important that public education be so weak in these areas because most of the ideas our politicians come up with are so far outside the framework of our basic ideas and principles.

[vraiblonde]

Originally Posted by nhboy

"I’m fascinated by how people make decisions when faced with lots of unknowns, such as when they pick a presidential candidate to support.

It's actually pretty simple, and in the information age there is no excuse for ignorance.

Every candidate has a plethora of information about them on the internet, from their personal life to their voting record to legislation they have supported. Then, of course, there are the speeches and other things they say in public that can be easily googled or youtubed.

If you have a basic idea of what you'd like to see happen with our beloved Motherland, it's a fairly easy process to determine which candidate would come closest to your vision.

[kwillia]

Originally Posted by vraiblonde

It's actually pretty simple, and in the information age there is no excuse for ignorance.

Every candidate has a plethora of information about them on the internet, from their personal life to their voting record to legislation they have supported. Then, of course, there are the speeches and other things they say in public that can be easily googled or youtubed.

If you have a basic idea of what you'd like to see happen with our beloved Motherland, it's a fairly easy process to determine which candidate would come closest to your vision.

I'm no expert at politics, but I surf regularly to see if my choice stays the same as time goes by and more fodder to chew becomes available... so far I feel most secure with McCain. I will continue to watch, read and listen tho.

[SamSpade]

Best place I know is OnTheIssues.org

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by kwillia

: stays the same as time goes by .

...as though it were some dead, lifeless, meaningless hunk of plastic?

[kwillia]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

...as though it were some dead, lifeless, meaningless hunk of plastic?

You should see my new hanging plant... It never needs watering... just dusting once in a while...

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by kwillia

You should see my new hanging plant... It never needs watering... just dusting once in a while...

...if it's not a 'plant' and it's not, what is it? "Look at my nice new creative use of hydro-carbon waste products! Isn't it 'home-y'?"