Truth About Energy

[vegmom]

The Seven Myths of Energy Independence

Quite an eye opening article - 3 pages. Got me pretty fired up.

Why is it we can never get the truth about energy? This guy is no different. He talks about how we get 60% of our oil from foreign countries, then talks about Saudi Arabia. The lion's share of our imported oil comes from Canada and Mexico. Saudi Arabia is back in third position. Neither Canada nor Mexico are in danger of going to war, suffer from civil war or other political instability, don't require long shipping distances, etc. If we can up US production, and rely just on Canada, Mexico, and soon, Brazil, to meet all our foreign needs, then we can reduce the need for oil from despots.

I keep seeing all the fingerpointing going on about gas prices, and the prime point seems to be "there's no one single cause of high gas prices". That's true, there are many, but there are some that are far more significant than others. I heard an analyst defending the speculators today by saying that speculators aren't to blame. The problem is regional conflicts, bad weather, and other factors that impact supply. The problem here is not conflicts and weather, it's speculators driving up prices based on fears of conflicts and weather! A war doesn't have to wipe out a refinery to cause prices to go up. All you need is a rumour that a war could, might, possibly start, and the speculators drive the price up. That's the problem.

I'm also hearing these guys blaming "soaring" demand for oil in India and China. I've heard several times about how India's demand is growing at a huge 5.5% while China is growing at 7.5%, while the rest of the industrializzed world is growng at 1% or less. Those numbers sound impressive until you put them in perspective. India's demand for oil is all of about 2.45 million barrels per day... that's a little more than what we import from Mexico on a given day. On the grand scale of things it's next to nothing! China is only about 7 million BPD. The US consumes close to 23 million BPD. A five or seven percent increase in US consumption would be huge, but those numbers for India and China are large as a percentage, but fairly insignificant as an actual number of barrels needed.

The other thing I keep hearing about is how all the SUVs on the road keep driving demand up and up. SUV and truck sales have been on the decline since 2004! They were single digits until last year and now they are into double digits. The peak of SUV and truck sales was in 2003, so for five years the number of them coming onto the road has been going steadilly downward. So how is it that they can be responsible for increasing demand every year up to and including now?

What I think the truth about energy independence is it is possible. We have enough oil in shale deposits to meet all of the US demand for 60 years, which would be more than enough time for folks to come up with an alternative fuel system that doesn't starve people or cost more than oil. The down side is that there will be lots of economic woes from the folks who got our billions in the past, but that can be worked out politically.

[vegmom]

Even if we were to tap into all these reserves they are not going to last forever. We need to put some serious R&D into alternatives now or we'll be stuck with inferior technology and gas prices that will make today's prices look microscopic.

[This_person]

Originally Posted by vegmom

Even if we were to tap into all these reserves they are not going to last forever. We need to put some serious R&D into alternatives now or we'll be stuck with inferior technology and gas prices that will make today's prices look microscopic.

Larry makes an excellant point about this - use it up. Don't artificially bring on high prices with taxes and speculation, use all the fossil fuel up. When that happens, then there will be incentive for a new distribution system of a new type of fuel. Until then, it's still the best option. That's just how capitalism works.

[vegmom]

Originally Posted by This_person

Larry makes an excellant point about this - use it up. Don't artificially bring on high prices with taxes and speculation, use all the fossil fuel up. When that happens, then there will be incentive for a new distribution system of a new type of fuel. Until then, it's still the best option. That's just how capitalism works.

If we did that it could bring serious consequences. We should be working to make the oil we can get at last as long as possible whilst looking for viable alternatives. Sure there's shale, oil sands, heavy oil, etc but that is going to be harder to extract and alot is full of contaminants. Production would be expensive and awful for the environment (I'm speaking in terms of the toixc byproducts of production, not squirrels and trees here).

A concerted effort towards more energy efficiency + alternatives will mitigate any castatrophic effects that could come from a sudden and sharp drop in global oil supplies. And these are going to take time to develop and implement.

[This_person]

Originally Posted by vegmom

If we did that it could bring serious consequences. We should be working to make the oil we can get at last as long as possible whilst looking for viable alternatives. Sure there's shale, oil sands, heavy oil, etc but that is going to be harder to extract and alot is full of contaminants. A concerted effort towards more energy efficiency + alternatives will mitigate any castatrophic effects that could come from a sudden and sharp drop in global oil supplies.

That's the whole point. No one's going to be seriously looking for these alternatives (though they are looking, it's just not a strong look) until it becomes economically useful to do so. As long as there's an over-abundance of oil, and a strong distribution system for that oil, it will be hard to overcome that and make anything else, starting from scratch, worthwhile.

[Mojo]

Originally Posted by vegmom

Quite an eye opening article

Nope, didn't help

[Jameo (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Mojo

Nope, didn't help

[vegmom]

Originally Posted by This_person

That's the whole point. No one's going to be seriously looking for these alternatives (though they are looking, it's just not a strong look) until it becomes economically useful to do so. As long as there's an over-abundance of oil, and a strong distribution system for that oil, it will be hard to overcome that and make anything else, starting from scratch, worthwhile.

What over abunance of oil? Many experts say we've already reached "peak oil" in non-OPEC countries. The Saudis will in about 10 years. Iran hit their's in the 70s.

I've always been what I call "double green" as in I care about the impact on the environment and my wallet. What things are better for the environment? Using less electricity, less gas, buying in larger containers instead of tiny individual packs, rechargeable batteries, reusable containers, etc. which all have positive effects on your household's bottom line.

Some things are expensive to get started with, such as putting solar panels on your house or buying a hybrid, but they pay off in the long term. Same goes with alternative energy. It's going to be expensive and it's going to take a while to fully perfect, but the long term benefit to the environment and our economy will be great.

[This_person]

Originally Posted by vegmom

What over abunance of oil? Many experts say we've already reached "peak oil" in non-OPEC countries. The Saudis will in about 10 years. Iran hit their's in the 70s.

I've always been what I call "double green" as in I care about the impact on the environment and my wallet. What things are better for the environment? Using less electricity, less gas, buying in larger containers instead of tiny individual packs, rechargeable batteries, reusable containers, etc. which all have positive effects on your household's bottom line.

Some things are expensive to get started with, such as putting solar panels on your house or buying a hybrid, but they pay off in the long term. Same goes with alternative energy. It's going to be expensive and it's going to take a while to fully perfect, but the long term benefit to the environment and our economy will be great.

Other than questioning that we have an abundance (I don't see how we don't - the problem is refinery capacity, not supply), I don't disagree with anything you said. You basically agreed with what I was saying - there's a financial bottom line to it. When the financial bottom line of a new source of energy is worthwhile, it will become our new source of energy.