Why McCain Will Win

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

McCain's biggest weakness, with his right, is actually a strength with those who will decide this thing; moderates.

That may not be the case in this election. The traditional L/R/C distribution is 30/30/40, with the assumption being that the Democrat will score the 30% Left vote, the Republican getting the 30% right vote, and the center 40% determining the winner. McCain can capture a large segment of the center and still lose as he's unlikely to get more than about half of the Right vote. I think the real determiner will be the 30% Left vote, and how many of them vote for Obama.

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Bruzilla

That may not be the case in this election. The traditional L/R/C distribution is 30/30/40, with the assumption being that the Democrat will score the 30% Left vote, the Republican getting the 30% right vote, and the center 40% determining the winner. McCain can capture a large segment of the center and still lose as he's unlikely to get more than about half of the Right vote. I think the real determiner will be the 30% Left vote, and how many of them vote for Obama.

...you're wrong about the right.

What is 'the right'? Religious conservatives, fiscal conservatives and cultural conservatives. The majority of Republicans are not conservatives. They are people who aren't for more taxes, but don't get too worked up about it when taxes and government expand. They are people who have faith but don't feel persecuted. They are people who see some social problems but aren't doom and gloomers about it. They are not radical, they are not extreme and they are not hard and fast about every issue. They are going to look at a first term Senator with not one single thing they can think of that he's ever done and they are going to look at a long serving national figure like McCain and they are going to vote McCain.

If the right, in your argument, is 30% of the voting total, and I think in years past that is very accurate, he gets 80-90% of that vote. He also gets a great deal of the center and bits and pieces of the left. The support for Obama is mile's wide and inches deep. McCain has none of the flash and excitement, but, at the end of the cycle, people are going to step into that booth and then it's decision time; style or substance?

We can argue endlessly, as we should, over McCain's substance and Obama's substance and their respective styles, but, the bottom line is that Obama is a flashy noob and McCain isn't. A great many Republicans, including the right, are still gonna vote for him. he will be missing the last 10-20% of the party, but that is easily made up in the center.

As Obama tries more and more to move to the center in an effort to lessen discomfort with him with the center, he risks de-animating his teeming throngs of excited college kids and the hard core left. McCain is already alienated from the hard right, so, he is free, or free-er, to go after the center, where he is already established and strong.

Bush won twice by maximizing the right. McCain can NOT get them. Once he accepts this, there is his chance. Obama has already maxed out the left and he needs the center. There is his chance also, yet also his greatest challenge; he is NOT a centrist. McCain has been for 20 some odd years.

[wintersprings]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

...you're wrong about the right.

Bush won twice by maximizing the right. McCain can NOT get them. Once he accepts this, there is his chance. Obama has already maxed out the left and he needs the center. There is his chance also, yet also his greatest challenge; he is NOT a centrist. McCain has been for 20 some odd years.
.

Its the economy stupid. that will decide the vote. It always has. If the Dems keep up a no drill policy, then Obama sinks with Nancy.

Watch them change their No drill policy soon.
....

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by wintersprings

Its the economy stupid. that will decide the vote. It always has. If the Dems keep up a no drill policy, then Obama sinks with Nancy.

Watch them change their No drill policy soon.
....

...a couple things to consider; Most people don't think Nancy Pelosi is running for president. Most people don't think the economy is her fault. Most people don't think it's Obama's fault. Most people think it's Bush's fault, so, if it stays iffy or is thought to be not so good, that benefits Obama, right?

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

Originally Posted by wintersprings

Its the economy stupid. that will decide the vote. It always has. If the Dems keep up a no drill policy, then Obama sinks with Nancy.

Watch them change their No drill policy soon.
....

Even the Right will admit drilling will have a minor affect on gas prices though. And it won't affect us for 5-10 years.

Now, the right has to explain why they want to continue giving oil companies tax breaks (which I am not opposed to, but most Americans are) after recording record profits yesterday.

[bcp (Premo)]

Originally Posted by AndyMarquisLIVE

Even the Right will admit drilling will have a minor affect on gas prices though. And it won't affect us for 5-10 years.

Now, the right has to explain why they want to continue giving oil companies tax breaks (which I am not opposed to, but most Americans are) after recording record profits yesterday.

It might not have a major effect on prices as far as bringing them down, (but it might) but it could keep them from going up any more, or at least not going up 10 cent a day.
and you are correct, it may not be of noticable value for 5-10 years, basically the same thing the boy wonder Clinton said 15 years ago. looking back at that now and realizing that we would have been bringing up the new crude about the same time that the prices started going wild,, well, I just got to say, did we not learn? why miss the boat agian?

untill new technologies are in place to reduce our use of oil, we really have no choice but to continue to supply what we currently have.

good thing you all arent farmers, would be no need to plant a crop since it would not benefit us for another few months.

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

If the right, in your argument, is 30% of the voting total, and I think in years past that is very accurate, he gets 80-90% of that vote.

McCain received less than 1/3rd of the Right vote throughout the primaries... even after everyone else had dropped out. Many times he couldn't get more than a quarter of the vote. About 60% of Republicans are just not in favor of McCain. I'm sure some of these will be the nose-holders who will change their tune and vote for McCain out of desperation, but I think the prediction that some 80% of these folks will be nose holders is a bit optimistic.

[bcp (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Bruzilla

McCain received less than 1/3rd of the Right vote throughout the primaries... even after everyone else had dropped out. Many times he couldn't get more than a quarter of the vote. About 60% of Republicans are just not in favor of McCain. I'm sure some of these will be the nose-holders who will change their tune and vote for McCain out of desperation, but I think the prediction that some 80% of these folks will be nose holders is a bit optimistic.

everyone I know that I have personally talked to plans to hold the nose and vote for McCain.

personally if not for a few issues, I would prefer curious george over McCain

[Baja28]

Originally Posted by bcp

everyone I know that I have personally talked to plans to hold the nose and vote for McCain.

personally if not for a few issues, I would prefer curious george over McCain

[bcp (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Baja28

cool looks like they are letting the duallies in too.

seriously though, I challenge anyone to show me a thriving city or country that has been run by a liberal black man.