| Negative attack ads work for one simple reason. National elections are not about convincing people to choose you over the other person. They are about getting as many of the people who would choose you over the other person to actually cast a vote.
National elections are about turnout and little else. There are relatively few people that are sincerely undecided after the conventions. And, the majority of people who fall into that category aren't going to vote anyway. It's all about getting your people to vote. Included in that are the people who definitely wouldn't vote for the other candidate, but aren't in love with you enough to feel compelled to vote for you either. You have to convince them that they need to vote against the other person by voting for you. That's what attack ads do. They make you mad at someone. They make you scared of someone.
That's why candidates that try to run to the middle and appear conciliatory, in order to collect as many of the undecideds as they can are making a huge mistake. In the end, the undecideds will pretty much be a wash, and their numbers are usually too few to be irrelevant anyway. You have to fire up your base. You have to throw them red meat. You have to impassion them. You have to convince them that their vote is of immeasurable importance.
The reason why Obama was the worst possible candidate from a Republican perspective is that turnout is king. There is little question that if there was 100% turnout, the Democratic candidate would win. Obama taps into a heretofore unrealized wealth of voters - young people and minorities. They are groups that have traditionally turned out in relatively low numbers; but to the extent that they do vote, they vote heavily Democratic. They believe that voting for Obama makes them cool. He's convinced them that they can be a part of something, that they can take control of the machine and steer it where they want to go; whereas, in the past they didn't feel like they were part of the process and thought they couldn't have any meaningful control. Obama has channeled JFK and hopes to ride a wave of 'hipness' into the White House. Bringing this enormous new source of support into the equation creates a change in the dynamic that represents an almost insurmountable hurdle for any Republican candidate. Frankly, in light of this, it's surprising that the race has lasted this long.
If McCain does still have any hope left it is because of something that polls can't account for - Fear is a greater motivator to action than Anger is. The Democrats are angry at the perceived ineptness and misdirection of the Republicans. This is an anger that the Democratic machine has worked tirelessly to instill and perpetuate in recent years. Democrats may have articulated some small degree of fear, but they never seemed to actually feel any. Anger is a great motivator, but it ain't fear.
On the other hand, the one thing McCain has going for him is the fear his supportors have of Obama. Republican supporters aren't just angry at Obama, they are sincerely scared. They fear what kind of a world will be left for their children if he is allowed to run roughshod over this nation for 4 or 8 years. And their fear isn't contrived, or taught, or coerced, or artificially propagated. It is organically born. It is sincere. And it is pervasive.
Obama's campaign has figured out that that fear is what has given McCain a shot in this election. That is why he has turned of late to attack ads, trying to cultivate a sensation of fear among his supporters.
Anger moves people to rhetoric. Fear moves them to action.
If McCain wants to have any chance, he needs to go on the attack now. He needs to come out with both guns blazing and show his supporters that he is just as scared of what an Obama led America will look like as they are. Don't worry about 'turning off' a few people that might still be on the fence. Fire up the troops you have. | 
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Digg this Thread!
Add Thread to del.icio.us
Bookmark in Technorati
Furl this Thread!
Add Thread to Facebook