Dow 14,198?

[Tilted (Premo)]

The DJIA just crossed 14,000 for the first time since 2007. Its all-time closing high is 14,165 and its all-time intra-day high is 14,198. My question is, do you think the DJIA will take out that intra-day high sometime soon (e.g. in the next week or month) or will this rally peter out before it's able to do so?

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Like oil when it first crossed $100, someone(s) will push it over just for the novelty of it. Then, everyone's purient interest satisfied, it will recede.

This is the one thing Obama did that he decided he HAD to have in his first term; stock market recovery. That was Geithner's sole job; just make sure everyone with money is satiated. There will be enough opposition as it is but, if the market is percieved to be doing well, never mind the reasons behind it, then, I can move forward.

He did enough to keep the savages calm enough.

[MMDad]

Originally Posted by Tilted

The DJIA just crossed 14,000 for the first time since 2007. Its all-time closing high is 14,165 and its all-time intra-day high is 14,198. My question is, do you think the DJIA will take out that intra-day high sometime soon (e.g. in the next week or month) or will this rally peter out before it's able to do so?

Yes it will, because there are so many people who don't understand the concept of buy low and sell high. The uninformed will see the markets where they are and increase their stakes. They'll try to ride what they think is a trend.

The smart investors will sell to the dumb ones and make the big bucks. Then when this house of cards tumbles, the people will sell low since they still don't understand that they are supposed to buy when the markets are low.

Then it will start all over again, with the smart investors buying what the dumb investors are unloading, then riding it back to the top again.

I'm convinced that this roller coaster is going to get wilder as we go, the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer. Not because the system is flawed, but because stupid people never learn from their mistakes.

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Larry Gude

Like oil when it first crossed $100, someone(s) will push it over just for the novelty of it. Then, everyone's purient interest satisfied, it will recede.

This is the one thing Obama did that he decided he HAD to have in his first term; stock market recovery. That was Geithner's sole job; just make sure everyone with money is satiated. There will be enough opposition as it is but, if the market is percieved to be doing well, never mind the reasons behind it, then, I can move forward.

He did enough to keep the savages calm enough.

You've been paying attention to oil prices lately I'm sure - not going the right direction. They really are tied, more so than ever, to broader economic conditions (or, more accurately, expectations there for).

[Tilted (Premo)]

Originally Posted by MMDad

Yes it will, because there are so many people who don't understand the concept of buy low and sell high. The uninformed will see the markets where they are and increase their stakes. They'll try to ride what they think is a trend.

The smart investors will sell to the dumb ones and make the big bucks. Then when this house of cards tumbles, the people will sell low since they still don't understand that they are supposed to buy when the markets are low.

Then it will start all over again, with the smart investors buying what the dumb investors are unloading, then riding it back to the top again.

I'm convinced that this roller coaster is going to get wilder as we go, the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer. Not because the system is flawed, but because stupid people never learn from their mistakes.

Equity markets have indeed been a wild ride lately - lots of short-term irrationality (and crazy valuations in both directions). It's presented great money making opportunities for those brave enough to stick their hand into the fan blade housing. Unfortunately for me, ever since that 'go ahead, I dare you incident' in my youth, I've been reluctant to stick my hand in there.

[Larry Gude (Premo)]

Originally Posted by Tilted

You've been paying attention to oil prices lately I'm sure - not going the right direction. They really are tied, more so than ever, to broader economic conditions (or, more accurately, expectations there for).

One of the more stunning economic stories to be written about Bush, Obama and oil is just how consistent prices have been the last, what, 6-8 years. Other than the little blip as Obama took office, all the fluctuations are gone. There is no more March/April dip, no big uptick in late fall. Janaury is about the same as July these days.

[MMDad]

Originally Posted by Tilted

Equity markets have indeed been a wild ride lately - lots of short-term irrationality (and crazy valuations in both directions). It's presented great money making opportunities for those brave enough to stick their hand into the fan blade housing. Unfortunately for me, ever since that 'go ahead, I dare you incident' in my youth, I've been reluctant to stick my hand in there.

Yeah, I have an institutional index fund with my 401(K) that I was lucky enough to be mostly out of in Fall '08 (accidentally awesome timing) and got back into it after the crash. I rode that up and made a good chunk. I've seen the market as ready for a crash for a while now, and put 90% into a guaranteed 3% fund. Not making much right now, and I've missed the latest rally, but if I don't have the stomach for the drop I think is coming I shouldn't expose myself to it.

[PsyOps (Premo)]

The DOW/stock market.......... one thing I can assure you 13+ million Americans don't give a damn about right now.

[philibusters]

I think the S&P will break 1550 and the NASDAQ will hit an all time high this year. People seem to be optimistic in this market. What will eventually happen is inflation will start to rise (but probably not until 2014) which will raise interest rates and that we lead to the market having lower P/E ratios as the market P/E's ratios will ahve to fall to match the return on buying bonds at 6% interest. However, until interest rates rise I see the market being fairly volatile with the volatility generally leading to slightly higher prices on the whole.

[Gilligan (Premo)]

Today was a good day.