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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1193
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA AND CNTRL/NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040418Z - 040545Z
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NRN MOUNTAINS/ERN PNHDL OF WV SINCE 03Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A
PSEUDO-BOWING LINE SEGMENT TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NE OF
KEKN. UPSTREAM...STRONGER STORMS EXIST...WHERE LLJ WAS FEEDING VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NE INTO SRN OH/WV.
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 00Z SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED SOMEWHAT IN WAKE OF THE AFTN MCS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN BUOYANCY NWD INTO CNTRL/WRN VA. INCREASING
CONVECTION...BOTH UPSTREAM...AND OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF THIS PROCESS. STERLING AND ROANOKE VWPS SHOW A
STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE WITH MODEST WNW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE
1-2 KM AND ABOUT 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS. MOREOVER...THE 0-1KM SRH HAD INCREASED TO OVER 250 M2/S2
OWING TO ENHANCED SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT...ANY SUSTAINED
SFC-BASED STORM MAY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH TIME OF DAY
IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY OR ANY
ATTEMPT AT FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOTED...A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.
..RACY.. 06/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
39428069 39057755 38927675 38877640 38497620 37977610
37327616 37297675 37467866 38358176
-------------------------------------------------------------
The map also shows parts of Lower Southern PG County and all of Southern Maryland. "WW" is short for Weather Watch!!!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA AND CNTRL/NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040418Z - 040545Z
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NRN MOUNTAINS/ERN PNHDL OF WV SINCE 03Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A
PSEUDO-BOWING LINE SEGMENT TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NE OF
KEKN. UPSTREAM...STRONGER STORMS EXIST...WHERE LLJ WAS FEEDING VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NE INTO SRN OH/WV.
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 00Z SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED SOMEWHAT IN WAKE OF THE AFTN MCS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN BUOYANCY NWD INTO CNTRL/WRN VA. INCREASING
CONVECTION...BOTH UPSTREAM...AND OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF THIS PROCESS. STERLING AND ROANOKE VWPS SHOW A
STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE WITH MODEST WNW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE
1-2 KM AND ABOUT 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS. MOREOVER...THE 0-1KM SRH HAD INCREASED TO OVER 250 M2/S2
OWING TO ENHANCED SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT...ANY SUSTAINED
SFC-BASED STORM MAY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH TIME OF DAY
IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY OR ANY
ATTEMPT AT FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOTED...A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.
..RACY.. 06/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
39428069 39057755 38927675 38877640 38497620 37977610
37327616 37297675 37467866 38358176
-------------------------------------------------------------
The map also shows parts of Lower Southern PG County and all of Southern Maryland. "WW" is short for Weather Watch!!!!