Tomorrow's Employment Report

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Report is due out tomorrow morning. Estimates for the benchmark Nonfarm Payrolls number vary, but the market is looking for something in the area of -300,000. The June report showed a loss of 467,000 Nonfarm Payrolls and an Unemployment Rate of 9.5%.

It seems to me that the markets are anxiously looking to this particular report to help settle the debate between those who think the economy is well down the road to recovery and those who think the economic situation remains dire. I suspect any lose of more than 400,000 will be received very poorly.

We got some rather bleak assessments from TrimTabs, an investment research firm, yesterday. They estimate that the U.S. economy actually lost 488,000 jobs in July. More importantly though, they suggest that new data will force the BLS to revise its job loss numbers, for the first half of 2009, significantly upward. There has been criticism to the effect that their reports have painted an employment picture that is rosier than reality.

It will be interesting to see what the numbers are tomorrow.

 

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The report is in:

July Nonfarm Payrolls: -247,000

June Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to -443,000 from -467,000

May Nonfarm Payrolls revision: to -303,000 from -322,000

Unemployment Rate: 9.4% (down from 9.5%)

Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%



This report is much better than what was expected. It will no doubt draw criticism as not painting an accurate picture of reality.

Look for the Administration to tout this report as evidence that its policies are working, and that it has turned the economic tide.

 

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Obama: Jobs Data Shows The Worst May Be Behind Us

President Barack Obama said Friday the latest U.S. unemployment figures showed the worst may be over in the economic crisis but acknowledged there was more work to be done to put the economy back on track.

"This morning we receive additional signs that the worst may be behind us," Obama said in an appearance in the White House Rose Garden after a government report that the U.S. jobless rate in July fell for the first time in 15 months.

Obama sought to cast in the best possible light the latest economic data despite economists view that economy has a long way to go to recover from one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Earlier, however, the White House said that the president still expects unemployment to hit 10 percent sometime later this year.

Obama's speech came at the end of a week in which a Quinnipiac University poll showed his job approval rating had dropped to 50 percent as Americans express doubt about his handling of the U.S. economy and health care.

"I'm convinced that we can see a light at the end of the tunnel," Obama declared, saying his policies had helped unfreeze credit and a rising market was restoring value to battered 401K savings plans.

"We've pulled the economy back from the brink," he said. But he added, "We have a lot further to go. We will not have a true recovery while we are still losing jobs."