An October Surprise? Tell it to the Marines...

[Bann]

More & more attention focused everyday on this race. It's getting very interesting.

With the general election less than a month away and the Democrats reeling from one bad poll after another, the time is ripe for them to spring an “October surprise” in an attempt to shift the odds in their favor. This time, however, the surprise might be on them, judging from the surging candidacies of two GOP hopefuls engaged in races against two of the House’s most entrenched incumbents, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the House Majority Leader.

What do both challengers have in common besides party affiliation and races against tough incumbents? Both are businessmen who understand first-hand the impact of our current economic uncertainty on business growth and job creation.

And both are Marines. They are trained and ready to fight.

...
Further south, another Marine is taking aim at the number two man in the House, Rep. Steny Hoyer. Hoyer has been in Congress for nearly 30 years, and a staple in Maryland politics since 1966. His opponent, Charles Lollar, was not yet born.

Lollar is a Marine who served in combat in Kosovo and is also currently a Major in the Marine Corps Reserves. He burst onto the scene as a charismatic speaker at Tea Party rallies in Maryland and across the nation. The 39-year old businessman decided to take on Hoyer because of his leadership role in advancing a radical liberal agenda under President Obama and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Lollar believes Rep. Hoyer has betrayed the values of a significant portion of Maryland’s 5th Congressional District, and no longer views himself as accountable to them.

Hoyer’s strength is in the most populous county in the district, which is predominantly black. But Lollar, a black conservative with an engaging personality, has appealed directly and personally to people who Republicans have not typically approached, asking them for their vote – and they are responding.

National political pundit Dick Morris last week declared the race “winnable” for Lollar, and his campaign has seen a surge of national attention since then, including the endorsement of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Some will say these races are long shots, but this hasn’t been a normal political season, and establishment Republicans and Democrats have gotten their comeuppance at the polls this year. Both Frank and Hoyer have huge targets on their backs for leading us to trillion dollar deficits and government-run health care, and bagging one or both would be a fine trophy for Republicans this November.

And, as they say, there’s something about a Marine.

An October Surprise? Tell It to the Marines - Ken Blackwell - Townhall Conservative

 

[thurley42]

More & more attention focused everyday on this race. It's getting very interesting.

great story!

 

[BernieP]

great story!

The one thing everybody forgets is that liberals believe they are in the right, and that because they own the truth the ends justify the means. I expect and October suprise, what I also expect is that Hoyer will remain aloof and the out of town surrogates will come into the district, primarily PG county and attack Lollar.
Loolar will get trashed like other conservative blacks, the campaign against him will be an ugly personal attack. Because a real black cannot be a republican or conservative.

Also remember, 91% if blacks think Obama is doing a good job while the country as a whole is less then 50%. If you support the President, you'll support Steny Hoyer.

And that my friends is what the campaign will be about. It won't be about Hoyer's political agenda or Obama's failures or his political agenda. It will be a referendum on Charles Lollars blackness.

 

[PsyOps]

Also remember, 91% if blacks think Obama is doing a good job while the country as a whole is less then 50%. If you support the President, you'll support Steny Hoyer.

Mid-term elections typically have weak turn-out for black voters. I don't expect the black vote to be nearly the factor it was in the presidential election. However, Hoyer has held this seat since 1981. People of the 5th district seem to vote with what's comfortable and I don't see Lollar winning based on these records.

So, given that these are unusual times with an ongoing porr economy, are the people of the 5th angry enough to dump Hoyer? Or will they just remain complacent and vote the status quo?

 

[BernieP]

as I recall Hoyer runs as two different people; in PG county he is the liberal democrat, in the So MD area he is the pro defense conservative (democrat).


It's hard to unseat the incumbent congressman, people might disagree with his politics (when they see it on the news) but what they remember is the constituent service his office provides. He'll also remind his district how much money / jobs he's brought in. That's what people vote on, what has Charles Lollar done for me today?

 

[PsyOps]

as I recall Hoyer runs as two different people; in PG county he is the liberal democrat, in the So MD area he is the pro defense conservative (democrat).


It's hard to unseat the incumbent congressman, people might disagree with his politics (when they see it on the news) but what they remember is the constituent service his office provides. He'll also remind his district how much money / jobs he's brought in. That's what people vote on, what has Charles Lollar done for me today?

I think the driving factor is going to be jobs. Although the 5th is relatively high in the respective unemployment rates, it is lower than the national rate:

AnneArundel 6.8%
Calvert 6.3%
Charles 6.3%
Prince Georges 7.4%
St. Mary's 6.1%

I'm just not sure Marylanders are feeling the pinch like the rest of the country. And Obamacare hasn't really hit people squarely in the eyes to realize the negative impact by election time.

I'm just not confident Lollar can overcome the long-standing incumbency of Hoyer. As much as I hate thinking this would be a factor, I think the only thing Lollar has going for himself is that he's black, in a majority black disctrict.

 

[Bann]

The one thing everybody forgets is that liberals believe they are in the right, and that because they own the truth the ends justify the means. I expect and October suprise, what I also expect is that Hoyer will remain aloof and the out of town surrogates will come into the district, primarily PG county and attack Lollar.
Loolar will get trashed like other conservative blacks, the campaign against him will be an ugly personal attack. Because a real black cannot be a republican or conservative.

Also remember, 91% if blacks think Obama is doing a good job while the country as a whole is less then 50%. If you support the President, you'll support Steny Hoyer.

And that my friends is what the campaign will be about. It won't be about Hoyer's political agenda or Obama's failures or his political agenda. It will be a referendum on Charles Lollars blackness.

Mid-term elections typically have weak turn-out for black voters. I don't expect the black vote to be nearly the factor it was in the presidential election. However, Hoyer has held this seat since 1981. People of the 5th district seem to vote with what's comfortable and I don't see Lollar winning based on these records.

So, given that these are unusual times with an ongoing porr economy, are the people of the 5th angry enough to dump Hoyer? Or will they just remain complacent and vote the status quo?

as I recall Hoyer runs as two different people; in PG county he is the liberal democrat, in the So MD area he is the pro defense conservative (democrat).


It's hard to unseat the incumbent congressman, people might disagree with his politics (when they see it on the news) but what they remember is the constituent service his office provides. He'll also remind his district how much money / jobs he's brought in. That's what people vote on, what has Charles Lollar done for me today?

I think the driving factor is going to be jobs. Although the 5th is relatively high in the respective unemployment rates, it is lower than the national rate:

AnneArundel 6.8%
Calvert 6.3%
Charles 6.3%
Prince Georges 7.4%
St. Mary's 6.1%

I'm just not sure Marylanders are feeling the pinch like the rest of the country. And Obamacare hasn't really hit people squarely in the eyes to realize the negative impact by election time.

I'm just not confident Lollar can overcome the long-standing incumbency of Hoyer. As much as I hate thinking this would be a factor, I think the only thing Lollar has going for himself is that he's black, in a majority black disctrict.

Every person who thinks they know how a race is going to be won ought to be getting out there and volunteering so they can say they helped do their part in defeating the "unbeatable" incumbent.

 

[PsyOps]

Every person who thinks they know how a race is going to be won ought to be getting out there and volunteering so they can say they helped do their part in defeating the "unbeatable" incumbent.

I don't think I know how the race is going to be won. In fact I think my comments have asserted that this could go either way. I'm just throwing in some very amateur analysis on how these things play out. Lollar has a very good position right now with all the anti-incumbent sentiment running around; I’m just not sure that is the sentiments of the 5th district.

I currently don't have the time to volunteer. I think you might have an idea of my situation. I have donated to Lollar’s campaign and I do my part by doing a lot talking wherever I go.

 

[mAlice]

The one thing everybody forgets is that liberals believe they are in the right, .

You keep telling yourself that. I hear of more and more unhappy liberals every day. They realize that they've made a mistake with Obama, and the tide is turning. People want to take their country back, and they aren't going down without a fight, regardless of their party.

 

[mAlice]

what has Charles Lollar done for me today?

What did Steny do before he was a politician?

 

[Rommey]

As much as I hate thinking this would be a factor, I think the only thing Lollar has going for himself is that he's black, in a majority black disctrict.

District 5 is not a majority black district. There's roughly 100K more whites than blacks.

 

[PsyOps]

What did Steny do before he was a politician?

He is a career politician. He jumped right into being an intern in the early '60s until he got elected into the MD State Senate in '66. He held that office until '78. He lost a bid for Lt Gov in 78. He served on the MD Board of Education until 81 when he got elected to congress at which he has polished a nasty butt print into an expensive leather seat ever since.

 

[Bann]

I don't think I know how the race is going to be won. In fact I think my comments have asserted that this could go either way. I'm just throwing in some very amateur analysis on how these things play out. Lollar has a very good position right now with all the anti-incumbent sentiment running around; I’m just not sure that is the sentiments of the 5th district.

I currently don't have the time to volunteer. I think you might have an idea of my situation. I have donated to Lollar’s campaign and I do my part by doing a lot talking wherever I go.

Thank you! He appreciates everything people do for this team effort! Indeed, I do know about your situation. You've got a lot on your plate. I have a very full plate myself, Psyops (and it recently became overflowing, unfortunately) But I am eeking out an afternoon here or an hour there, as I can. It's just that important.

As a reminder to everyone - the Southern Maryland Victory call center is located in Prince Frederick, in the Kaine Office building on Duke Street. Wed. (and I think Thurs.) nights are Lollar calling nights. 6-8pm. The calls are automated, as well.

 

[PsyOps]

District 5 is not a majority black district. There's roughly 100K more whites than blacks.

You are correct. Thank you. I should have fact-checked first.

Some other interesting facts to note:

In '08 Hoyer won 74% of the vote
In '06 Hoyer won 83%
In '04 Hoyer won 69%
In '02 Hoyer won 60%

The median income in the 5th is $83,780 as compared to $52,172 in the US
Poverty rate is 3.5% vs. 9.6% in the US

As of Aug 25 Hoyer has raised $3.8 million; Lollar $261k.

These things don't bode well for Lollar.

 

[Bann]

You are correct. Thank you. I should have fact-checked first.

Some other interesting facts to note:

In '08 Hoyer won 74% of the vote
In '06 Hoyer won 83%
In '04 Hoyer won 69%
In '02 Hoyer won 60%

The median income in the 5th is $83,780 as compared to $52,172 in the US
Poverty rate is 3.5% vs. 9.6% in the US

As of Aug 25 Hoyer has raised $3.8 million; Lollar $261k.

These things don't bode well for Lollar.

Yeah, those statistics look pretty gloomy when you're only counting numbers.

With all due respect, Psyops - those numbers don't include the numbers of people in the 5th District who have changed their party affiliations from D to R in order to vote in the primary FOR LOLLAR. Nor do they show the HUGE number of people who live in PG County who have told Lollar they were unable to vote for him in the primary, but they've "got his back" in November. We will call those people "Democrats for Lollar" -and there is a growing number of them - every day.

Your numbers don't count the people (noticed at the events and appearances Lollar makes) who have signed on to this extraordinary man's campaign to help him defeat the incumbent. The numbers don't count the people who ignore Steny at an event when Lollar is present, even though Steny arrived with his entourage in tow like the 2nd coming of "you know who" and Lollar arrives with just the one person who normally drives him so he can work while en route to his next stop.

The numbers do not tell you that Lollar is literally on the road of this district from morning to night just about every single day. He is working this district the old fashioned way. He is beating the pavement, knocking on doors, being invited into people's homes where he talks to 5, 10, 20 people at a time and listens to THEIR problems and concerns. And he's ASKING for their vote. Steny is not.

Does any of what I say mean Lollar is going to beat Steny? No. But those numbers you posted do not tell a whole lot either, they really don't.

 

[ImnoMensa]

Yeah, those statistics look pretty gloomy when you're only counting numbers.

With all due respect, Psyops - those numbers don't include the numbers of people in the 5th District who have changed their party affiliations from D to R in order to vote in the primary FOR LOLLAR. Nor do they show the HUGE number of people who live in PG County who have told Lollar they were unable to vote for him in the primary, but they've "got his back" in November. We will call those people "Democrats for Lollar" -and there is a growing number of them - every day.

Your numbers don't count the people (noticed at the events and appearances Lollar makes) who have signed on to this extraordinary man's campaign to help him defeat the incumbent. The numbers don't count the people who ignore Steny at an event when Lollar is present, even though Steny arrived with his entourage in tow like the 2nd coming of "you know who" and Lollar arrives with just the one person who normally drives him so he can work while en route to his next stop.

The numbers do not tell you that Lollar is literally on the road of this district from morning to night just about every single day. He is working this district the old fashioned way. He is beating the pavement, knocking on doors, being invited into people's homes where he talks to 5, 10, 20 people at a time and listens to THEIR problems and concerns. And he's ASKING for their vote. Steny is not.

Does any of what I say mean Lollar is going to beat Steny? No. But those numbers you posted do not tell a whole lot either, they really don't.

Unfortunately there are many Democrats in the 5th district that would vote for Jiffy John if he was placed on the ballot with a D behind his name.

Lollar has much more going for him than he is given credit for. Anyone who has met him will tell you that.

 

[PsyOps]

Yeah, those statistics look pretty gloomy when you're only counting numbers.

With all due respect, Psyops - those numbers don't include the numbers of people in the 5th District who have changed their party affiliations from D to R in order to vote in the primary FOR LOLLAR. Nor do they show the HUGE number of people who live in PG County who have told Lollar they were unable to vote for him in the primary, but they've "got his back" in November. We will call those people "Democrats for Lollar" -and there is a growing number of them - every day.

Your numbers don't count the people (noticed at the events and appearances Lollar makes) who have signed on to this extraordinary man's campaign to help him defeat the incumbent. The numbers don't count the people who ignore Steny at an event when Lollar is present, even though Steny arrived with his entourage in tow like the 2nd coming of "you know who" and Lollar arrives with just the one person who normally drives him so he can work while en route to his next stop.

The numbers do not tell you that Lollar is literally on the road of this district from morning to night just about every single day. He is working this district the old fashioned way. He is beating the pavement, knocking on doors, being invited into people's homes where he talks to 5, 10, 20 people at a time and listens to THEIR problems and concerns. And he's ASKING for their vote. Steny is not.

Does any of what I say mean Lollar is going to beat Steny? No. But those numbers you posted do not tell a whole lot either, they really don't.

I’m certainly not trying to tell a whole story and not trying to predict who’s going to win. You know who I want to win. I’m just throwing a few historical facts to let folks know what we are up against in this election. Given this history I’m not convinced that 5th voters are ready to make the leap to remove what they probably view as what has made their district relatively successful in spite of the crappy economy.

I can’t find much online on polls or sentiments of 5th district voters. Are they angry and ready got REAL change? I’m trying to find that silver lining. The more I search the more reality hits me in the face. I’m the kind of person that wants to know the reality of things instead of being hugely disappointed.

 

[acommondisaster]

I think the Democrat October surprise will come in November - in the form of voter fraud in close races.

 

[Bann]

I’m certainly not trying to tell a whole story and not trying to predict who’s going to win. You know who I want to win. I’m just throwing a few historical facts to let folks know what we are up against in this election. Given this history I’m not convinced that 5th voters are ready to make the leap to remove what they probably view as what has made their district relatively successful in spite of the crappy economy.

I can’t find much online on polls or sentiments of 5th district voters. Are they angry and ready got REAL change? I’m trying to find that silver lining. The more I search the more reality hits me in the face. I’m the kind of person that wants to know the reality of things instead of being hugely disappointed.

And this surprises you?! I'm sure I can figure out why there aren't any polls of our district.

The Victory Call Center is making calls all the time & they ARE polling people. You could check them out (they're in the Kaine Building on Duke Street in PF) on Lollar Wednesdays for an hour and talk to Kara Wheeler.

 

[SamSpade]

I think the Democrat October surprise will come in November - in the form of voter fraud in close races.

Since they've done that often, there's no reason to believe they won't try it again. They have too much to lose.

The biggest weapon the Republicans have on their side now is the slightly wavering overconfidence of the Democrats, who still insist they will keep the House (even though all data pretty much says it's been lost since spring) and that they might even win governorships like Texas (where Perry has had a comfortable lead since February, and it's growing). They still believe their recent successes are a shift in voter sentiment to their entire plan for government. Only an overconfident Democrat can see Obama winning in '08 with 53% of the vote, call it a landslide and a mandate for change, but see a 51% win in 2004 for Bush and see it as close.