wintersprings
New Member
Today on his show, Hoyer's vulnerability was specifically talked about.
Even Rush says Hoyers Job is in play
- Thread starter wintersprings
- Start date
I think it's exciting that our li'l ol' burg is making national news, and Charles Lollar is doing it, no less. Nobody even heard of this guy before, but he's been working his butt off, getting his name out there, attending every meet & greet he possibly can. Listening and paying attention.
Even if he loses, the media on this has really been something.
Even if he loses, the media on this has really been something.
Tilted
..
I think Rush is either kidding himself or, more likely, doing what you do in campaigns - talk up the chances of the person you want to see win, especially if they're an underdog. Doing that tends to be self-fulfilling. You act and talk like the person has a chance to win, and that creates energy and excitement, and it's that energy and excitement that pounds the pavement in search of more votes. And, those votes are easier to find and convince if they believe there's a chance they'll be going to a winner. Even if a candidate thinks they have no shot or very little shot, they need to act otherwise to increase their chances of doing better.
Is it possible that Lollar could win? Sure, but it is still an extreme longshot. This election cycle could represent an electoral tidal wave for Republicans (though I don't think it will as much so as many think), and that's what moves his chances into the fringe of plausibility so that his hard work and apparently charming personality have at least some chance of mattering.
My skepticism isn't just based on Hoyer's historic electoral record and longstanding incumbency - the former actually points to some vulnerability in times of Republican electoral momentum (he got less than 60% of the vote from '92 - '96). Rather, my skepticism is based in significant part on the primary results. I looked at the present results from Prince George's County and compared them to the results of the last 4 election cycles. I was looking for signs that Hoyer was particularly and sufficiently vulnerable this year - indications of far less Democratic interest in voting or of an anti-Hoyer sentiment among Democrats. For Lollar to win, he has to either get his supporters out in much greater numbers than Hoyer does, or capture a meaningful number of traditional Hoyer voters (new anti-Hoyer votes), and probably both. I've little doubt he'll do both of those things to some extent, the question is whether it'll be enough.
So, what about Democratic opposition to Hoyer. I just didn't see it. There were two other options on the Democratic ballot for Congressional District 5, and Hoyer still got 89% of the votes cast in that race (in PG County). Let's compare that to 2008 when he got only 81% of such votes cast even though there was only one other option on the ballot. And who was that other option? Do I really need to remind everyone? Let's go back to 2002, the next previous year in which there was another name on the Democratic primary ballot. Steny got 88% of the primary votes cast that year - still marginally worse than he did this year.
I was looking for indication that some of Hoyer's base, or even some of his previously marginal supporters, were ready to abandon him. It wasn't there. I was looking for him to at least do worse than he did in 2008. He did much better. Were both of his opponents really worse options than JPC was? Let's face it, a large number of people in St. Mary's and Calvert County, and a large number of Republicans and conservatives, may be feed up with Mr. Hoyer, but I've seen little evidence that PG County, and Democrats and liberals in general, are. He's delivered for them.
Turning to primary turnout, there we see some reason for optimism - but I don't think it's enough. Votes cast in the CD5 Democratic primary (again, in PG County) were down 36% from 2008 while those cast in the CD5 Republican primary were down just 19% (2008 was a Presidential election, so we'd expect a drop off - what is meaningful is the comparison there of between parties). It's tough to find much meaning in the 2 previous primary cycles, as Hoyer was unopposed in both (which tends to suppress votes cast totals, and which would actually make the numbers in 2010 look stronger), and there wasn't even anyone on the Republican ballot in 2006. Further, I'm not sure what to make of a comparison to 2002 - but at least there's some consistency there, both ballots reflected one unopposed candidate (Hoyer(D) and Crawford(R)). As far as 2010 participation as compared with that of 2002 goes, Democratic votes cast were up 5% while Republican votes cast were actually down 3%.
So, while it appears that Republicans in PG County are meaningfully more energized than Democrats this time around as compared to 2008 (at least with regard to CD5), that might not hold as true when we take a broader snapshot. 2008 was always going to be a bad comparison for Democrats, as they were fired up and out for blood then (just as we assume Republicans and conservatives are this time around).
All that said, I strongly suspect (and some of the numbers hint) that Mr. Lollar has been successful in creating passion and winning votes - even in PG County. The turnout numbers for Republicans in the CD5 primary no doubt also benefited from renewed Republican interest in general. But, I just don't see enough there there. Hoyer got 74% of the general election vote in 2008, he got 69% in both 2002 and 2004 (he got 83% in 2006, but that's somewhat misleading as regards this year because there was no Republican party candidate listed). The comparisons for 2010 with regard to relative voter turnouts and internal support lost (for Hoyer) have to be overwhelming (in favor of Lollar) in order to overcome those kinds of margins. The primary results - of limited predictive power though they may be - just don't point to sufficiently overwhelming dynamic shifts, in my opinion. I'd be shocked if Hoyer doesn't win another election. But, if he doesn't, I'll happily return here and acknowledge my whiff - and then proceed to try to figure out what it was that I failed to recognize.
Is it possible that Lollar could win? Sure, but it is still an extreme longshot. This election cycle could represent an electoral tidal wave for Republicans (though I don't think it will as much so as many think), and that's what moves his chances into the fringe of plausibility so that his hard work and apparently charming personality have at least some chance of mattering.
My skepticism isn't just based on Hoyer's historic electoral record and longstanding incumbency - the former actually points to some vulnerability in times of Republican electoral momentum (he got less than 60% of the vote from '92 - '96). Rather, my skepticism is based in significant part on the primary results. I looked at the present results from Prince George's County and compared them to the results of the last 4 election cycles. I was looking for signs that Hoyer was particularly and sufficiently vulnerable this year - indications of far less Democratic interest in voting or of an anti-Hoyer sentiment among Democrats. For Lollar to win, he has to either get his supporters out in much greater numbers than Hoyer does, or capture a meaningful number of traditional Hoyer voters (new anti-Hoyer votes), and probably both. I've little doubt he'll do both of those things to some extent, the question is whether it'll be enough.
So, what about Democratic opposition to Hoyer. I just didn't see it. There were two other options on the Democratic ballot for Congressional District 5, and Hoyer still got 89% of the votes cast in that race (in PG County). Let's compare that to 2008 when he got only 81% of such votes cast even though there was only one other option on the ballot. And who was that other option? Do I really need to remind everyone? Let's go back to 2002, the next previous year in which there was another name on the Democratic primary ballot. Steny got 88% of the primary votes cast that year - still marginally worse than he did this year.
I was looking for indication that some of Hoyer's base, or even some of his previously marginal supporters, were ready to abandon him. It wasn't there. I was looking for him to at least do worse than he did in 2008. He did much better. Were both of his opponents really worse options than JPC was? Let's face it, a large number of people in St. Mary's and Calvert County, and a large number of Republicans and conservatives, may be feed up with Mr. Hoyer, but I've seen little evidence that PG County, and Democrats and liberals in general, are. He's delivered for them.
Turning to primary turnout, there we see some reason for optimism - but I don't think it's enough. Votes cast in the CD5 Democratic primary (again, in PG County) were down 36% from 2008 while those cast in the CD5 Republican primary were down just 19% (2008 was a Presidential election, so we'd expect a drop off - what is meaningful is the comparison there of between parties). It's tough to find much meaning in the 2 previous primary cycles, as Hoyer was unopposed in both (which tends to suppress votes cast totals, and which would actually make the numbers in 2010 look stronger), and there wasn't even anyone on the Republican ballot in 2006. Further, I'm not sure what to make of a comparison to 2002 - but at least there's some consistency there, both ballots reflected one unopposed candidate (Hoyer(D) and Crawford(R)). As far as 2010 participation as compared with that of 2002 goes, Democratic votes cast were up 5% while Republican votes cast were actually down 3%.
So, while it appears that Republicans in PG County are meaningfully more energized than Democrats this time around as compared to 2008 (at least with regard to CD5), that might not hold as true when we take a broader snapshot. 2008 was always going to be a bad comparison for Democrats, as they were fired up and out for blood then (just as we assume Republicans and conservatives are this time around).
All that said, I strongly suspect (and some of the numbers hint) that Mr. Lollar has been successful in creating passion and winning votes - even in PG County. The turnout numbers for Republicans in the CD5 primary no doubt also benefited from renewed Republican interest in general. But, I just don't see enough there there. Hoyer got 74% of the general election vote in 2008, he got 69% in both 2002 and 2004 (he got 83% in 2006, but that's somewhat misleading as regards this year because there was no Republican party candidate listed). The comparisons for 2010 with regard to relative voter turnouts and internal support lost (for Hoyer) have to be overwhelming (in favor of Lollar) in order to overcome those kinds of margins. The primary results - of limited predictive power though they may be - just don't point to sufficiently overwhelming dynamic shifts, in my opinion. I'd be shocked if Hoyer doesn't win another election. But, if he doesn't, I'll happily return here and acknowledge my whiff - and then proceed to try to figure out what it was that I failed to recognize.
Tilted
..
I post separately to say that none of what I said in the previous post is meant to suggest that Lollar shouldn't keep fighting his guts out. It's not to suggest that supporters should stop believing in him or hoping for a miracle. It's not to suggest that Bann should abandon her enthusiasm, stop trying to get the word out, stop posting about his events, stop spreading the message, stop getting excited about the positive coverage Mr. Lollar gets or the generally positive reactions people seem to have to him when they meet him.
For one thing, in life, it's the process - the journey - that really matters. On a less philosophical note, Mr. Lollar and his supporters' efforts will matter even if he doesn't win. Perhaps he can get 40% of the vote. Maybe he can even hold Hoyer under 55% for the first time ever. Those probably aren't his goals right now - he probably wants to actually win - but they would be considerable accomplishments and, in hindsight, I think he would recognize them as measures of success. The strength of his run will matter somewhere down the road - whether it be for him personally, for the next person that challenges Steny, or with regard to Steny's actions in office.
Finally, Lollar and his supporters should keep on doing what they're doing (and being passionate about it), and believing in what's possible because, well, Tilted isn't the final vote tally and it's true what they say - it ain't over til it's over.
For one thing, in life, it's the process - the journey - that really matters. On a less philosophical note, Mr. Lollar and his supporters' efforts will matter even if he doesn't win. Perhaps he can get 40% of the vote. Maybe he can even hold Hoyer under 55% for the first time ever. Those probably aren't his goals right now - he probably wants to actually win - but they would be considerable accomplishments and, in hindsight, I think he would recognize them as measures of success. The strength of his run will matter somewhere down the road - whether it be for him personally, for the next person that challenges Steny, or with regard to Steny's actions in office.
Finally, Lollar and his supporters should keep on doing what they're doing (and being passionate about it), and believing in what's possible because, well, Tilted isn't the final vote tally and it's true what they say - it ain't over til it's over.
acommondisaster
Active Member
Steny sent all four of the registered Repubs at this house a flyer yesterday. Keep wastin' your money, Stenjob.
Lollar had an interview on Sean Hannity's show today. I was running errands so I only got the hear the tail end of it. The part I heard was very interesting. I think Sean asked Lollar about Palin coming out to campaign & Lollar said something about that would be fine with him. And then Hannity said well, "If the Annointed One was going to campaign for Steny - then it would be only right to have Palin come out for Lollar".
The Podcast of the Hannity show is not out yet, so can't confirm this.
But if Obama is going to campaign for Hoyer - that is pretty significant news.
Anyway, no matter. Lollar's Facebook page has just exploded with postings since the interview. People ALL OVER the US are posting and saying they are contributing to the campaign - even if they can't vote for him. It's really quite incredible to read the support from people all over - not just Maryland. AND they're sending money!
Also, Huckabee just added his endorsement of Lollar.
(I think he already has Romney & Paul)
The Podcast of the Hannity show is not out yet, so can't confirm this.
But if Obama is going to campaign for Hoyer - that is pretty significant news.
Anyway, no matter. Lollar's Facebook page has just exploded with postings since the interview. People ALL OVER the US are posting and saying they are contributing to the campaign - even if they can't vote for him. It's really quite incredible to read the support from people all over - not just Maryland. AND they're sending money!
Also, Huckabee just added his endorsement of Lollar.
(I think he already has Romney & Paul)
acommondisaster
Active Member
He's showing up for a rally at Bowie State with Hoyer. I believe the date is the 16th....I could be wrong on the date.
Lollar says he has about 400k to Stendog's 5M.
Lollar says he has about 400k to Stendog's 5M.
S
shagger
Guest
In today's Enterprise, an informal online survey done by the Enterprise showed 79% support for Lollar vs 21% for Hoyer.....not sure if I got the number exact but it was a huge favor for Lollar. The poll was not scientific.
Tilted
..
Ooh I'm glad I have your permission to put my support behind whomever I choose!
Oh come on now Bann, you know that's not how I meant that. In writing the previous post, you naturally came to mind as you're obviously active in supporting Mr. Lollar. I just didn't want people to take my comments as trying to be Debbie Downer or defeatist.
Now you've made me feel like an ass.
kom526
They call me ... Sarcasmo
Hey Bann. remember what I told you what happened on Friday night? Looks like there was some truth to it!
I agree with what Tilted wrote in regards to PG County. There are a LOT of registered Democrats there and they, for the most part, vote party.
This is a race where EVERY REGISTERED VOTER needs to VOTE - not just assume Lollar will take Hoyer. Lollar will need those votes. It will be very close.
This is a race where EVERY REGISTERED VOTER needs to VOTE - not just assume Lollar will take Hoyer. Lollar will need those votes. It will be very close.
Aerogal
USMC 1983-1995
Tilted - I understand your analysis, but I can't help but feel the primary numbers don't really point to a big vote support for Hoyer on the 2nd. No big surprise he got a big percentage in the primary voter block - it's expected. I know a lot of democrats (not necessarily liberals or entitlement class) who vote republican, just haven't bothered changing their affiliation. I also know that Lollar has the attention of a lot of dem voters throughout the 5th district. Name recognition is a plus in my book.
The thing with a 'Rush Plug" - every person he names get a big boost in contributions. Look at what happened with the GOP nominee in Delaware - her own party turned on her (kind of like the DNC did to the guy in Carolina(?)), he goes to her defense, chastises the GOP and now she has over $2m in her 'war chest'. Big money doesn't guarantee a win, as we have seen, but it can't hurt.
The thing with a 'Rush Plug" - every person he names get a big boost in contributions. Look at what happened with the GOP nominee in Delaware - her own party turned on her (kind of like the DNC did to the guy in Carolina(?)), he goes to her defense, chastises the GOP and now she has over $2m in her 'war chest'. Big money doesn't guarantee a win, as we have seen, but it can't hurt.
Tilted
..
What I was looking to find in the PG County primary numbers was indication that some of the Democratic voters had been turned off to Hoyer and were at least looking for another Democratic option (or, even just casting a 'wake-up' vote for a different candidate). I was a bit surprised that Steny got an even larger percentage of the Democratic votes cast than he had when his opponent was JPC. Now, if I were to put on my intensely-searching-for-possible-alternate-causation hat, I have an idea that might partially explain that - but not enough so. It just doesn't appear his core voters are fed up with him and looking for change.
That being the case, as bresamil alluded, it's all about turnout for Lollar. He needs to have incredible turnout to have any chance. He needs to have every single person that is inclined to vote for him actually show up and vote. Then he needs to hope for heavy rain in PG County.
Oh come on now Bann, you know that's not how I meant that. In writing the previous post, you naturally came to mind as you're obviously active in supporting Mr. Lollar. I just didn't want people to take my comments as trying to be Debbie Downer or defeatist.
Now you've made me feel like an ass.
I'm sorry. I didn't mean to.
Please accept my apology.Honestly - the numbers, statistics and polls are not showing the real picture. They never do. But in this case, this year, this election - they really don't.
I can't explain it because I'm not a political science type. I am not a numbers person - I don't get into the nitty gritty of statistics and such.
I just know what I am seeing and observing about Charles and the people of our district who are seeking to speak to him whenever I am at *any* event Mr. Lollar attends. You can't measure that, and I'm not sure I can even articulate what I see.
And I realize that on November 2, if Lollar should lose -then Nov. 3rd I'll be the number one target from every Liberal, every naysayer and Negative Nellie on the forums! I'm sure they can't wait to say "I told you so". But hey - I've chosen to put myself way out on the line here and that's the nature of the beast. So be it, because I don't regret one minute. Following Charles Lollar's campaign and watching his rise in this whole Tea Party movement has been a great honor and a sight to behold. I'm glad I've been able to know a little about him and his family, to be able to meet his daughters & lovely wife.
And it's been one of the best experiences I've ever had getting involved in politics - having the pleasure and honor to campaign for someone who is such a strong conservative with solid morals & values and is out there working toward bringing this country back to the way we used to be.
But don't worry - the naysayers will have to wait - because he won't lose.
mAlice
professional daydreamer
Ooh I'm glad I have your permission to put my support behind whomever I choose!
Bann, I believe that was a disclaimer. Get over it already.
I've written elsewhere on the politics forum about this - don't have time to search for it.
Lollar's campaign has been reporting since the Primary that a LOT of registered Dems in the PG county area of our district are telling the campaign they are for him, they will be voting for him in November. They are NOT voting party this time around, they haven't changed their affiliation. They are just not feeling the love for Steny. And this is not about being Democrat or about being Black.
I can't quantify those numbers. But knowing Lollar's modus operandi - he is a very humble and levelheaded man. He doesn't throw numbers around and is not a braggart. No one that I've talked to in his campaign is, for that matter. And I know a great many of his coordinators by name and have spent time talking to them. Now - does this mean those numbers are high enough to overcome that phenomenon of the PG County Dems voting the party? I'm not sure, since I'm not a numbers person. But again - the regular school of thought here really doesn't apply this year.
I'll tell you all this much: if you're ever at a Lollar event and see the young gentleman who accompanies Lollar - find a little time and go up and speak to him. Very low-key, nonchalant type of guy. His name is Trevor. He drives Lollar around and is also an assistant to him. He has seen a wholllllllle lot!
