The Trade Deficit

[Tilted]

According to this morning's joint release from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

The U.S. trade deficit for 2010 was $497.8 Billion, up $122.9 Billion from 2009. That was on $2,329.7 Billion worth of imports and $1,831.8 Billion worth of exports.

Our goods trade deficit was $646.5 Billion. Our services trade surplus was $148.7 Billion.


Some of our biggest net export goods categories: soybeans, corn, semiconductors, civilian aircraft, civilian aircraft engines, plastic materials, organic chemicals, newsprint

Some of our biggest net import goods categories: natural gas; computers; computer accessories; telecommunications equipment; apparel; pharmaceutical preparations; toys, games and sporting goods; TV's, VCR's, etc.; furniture; footwear; household appliances; other household goods... oh, and crude oil.


Okay, here comes the fun part: What net import goods category accounts for the largest portion of the trade deficit, and how much does it account for? Hint: Oil.

Our petroleum deficit was $265.1 Billion in 2010. Our non-petroleum goods deficit combined with our services surplus was $220.1 Billion (*). The ratio for 2009 favors the petroleum portion of the deficit even more (though only slightly). The non-crude oil categories of petroleum (e.g. fuel oil, other refined products, LPG) balance out, in the aggregate, to a significant degree. So, the overwhelming bulk of that petroleum deficit - $250.7 Billion - is from crude oil.

Our much referenced trade deficit problem is, in very large part, a crude oil import problem. That's the reality of the matter. The sooner we get serious about confronting and mitigating that reality, the sooner we can move on to deal with the even scarier aspect of the trade imbalance: our $10 Billion per year fish and shellfish trade deficit.

I'll log out at let Tilted have his username back now.



(*) There are some net adjustments ($12.6 Billion worth) required by the methodology used for the measurements that account for the difference between the sum of those two numbers and the total trade deficit of $497.8 Billion.

 

[ImnoMensa]

According to this morning's joint release from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

The U.S. trade deficit for 2010 was $497.8 Billion, up $122.9 Billion from 2009. That was on $2,329.7 Billion worth of imports and $1,831.8 Billion worth of exports.

Our goods trade deficit was $646.5 Billion. Our services trade surplus was $148.7 Billion.


Some of our biggest net export goods categories: soybeans, corn, semiconductors, civilian aircraft, civilian aircraft engines, plastic materials, organic chemicals, newsprint

Some of our biggest net import goods categories: natural gas; computers; computer accessories; telecommunications equipment; apparel; pharmaceutical preparations; toys, games and sporting goods; TV's, VCR's, etc.; furniture; footwear; household appliances; other household goods... oh, and crude oil.


Okay, here comes the fun part: What net import goods category accounts for the largest portion of the trade deficit, and how much does it account for? Hint: Oil.

Our petroleum deficit was $265.1 Billion in 2010. Our non-petroleum goods deficit combined with our services surplus was $220.1 Billion (*). The ratio for 2009 favors the petroleum portion of the deficit even more (though only slightly). The non-crude oil categories of petroleum (e.g. fuel oil, other refined products, LPG) balance out, in the aggregate, to a significant degree. So, the overwhelming bulk of that petroleum deficit - $250.7 Billion - is from crude oil.

Our much referenced trade deficit problem is, in very large part, a crude oil import problem. That's the reality of the matter. The sooner we get serious about confronting and mitigating that reality, the sooner we can move on to deal with the even scarier aspect of the trade imbalance: our $10 Billion per year fish and shellfish trade deficit.

I'll log out at let Tilted have his username back now.



(*) There are some net adjustments ($12.6 Billion worth) required by the methodology used for the measurements that account for the difference between the sum of those two numbers and the total trade deficit of $497.8 Billion.

Drill Baby Drill

Windmills, Solar Power, Electric cars just aint going to cut the mustard.

 

[Tilted]

Drill Baby Drill

Windmills, Solar Power, Electric cars just aint going to cut the mustard.

We do need to be more aggressive about tapping domestic sources of crude, but drill baby drill alone aint going to cut the mustard either. We need to address this problem from both the supply and demand side... in earnest... starting yesterday.

We aren't going to be able to cut our dependence on foreign oil to (what I would consider) comfortable levels just by drilling more, but it would certainly help.

 

[Pushrod]

I really think we are past the point of being able to address this meaningfully. We should have started addressing this in the '70's and maybe we would have an energy policy that would mitigate the situation we (and the world) are in now. I believe we are in an ever increasing spiral down the proverbial tube. In other words we are fu(ked!

I was surprised about the net import of Natural Gas, I thought we were sitting on some of the biggest reserves in the world.

 

[Lenny]

I really think we are past the point of being able to address this meaningfully. We should have started addressing this in the '70's and maybe we would have an energy policy that would mitigate the situation we (and the world) are in now. I believe we are in an ever increasing spiral down the proverbial tube. In other words we are fu(ked!

I was surprised about the net import of Natural Gas, I thought we were sitting on some of the biggest reserves in the world.

Operative phrase is 'sitting on.'

 

[Tilted]

I really think we are past the point of being able to address this meaningfully. We should have started addressing this in the '70's and maybe we would have an energy policy that would mitigate the situation we (and the world) are in now. I believe we are in an ever increasing spiral down the proverbial tube. In other words we are fu(ked!

I was surprised about the net import of Natural Gas, I thought we were sitting on some of the biggest reserves in the world.

We 'benefited' from cheap oil for too long, and that's played a large part in our being where we are today - not as well prepared and situated as we could be both with regard to maximizing production ability and diminishing our reliance on oil as an energy source.

When oil is less than $30 a barrel, which it was as recently as 2003, there's not as much (apparent) need to think about, e.g. increasing fuel efficiency or finding other ways to heat our houses. At those levels, gasoline and fuel oil are so cheap that consumers don't have to care too much. At the same time, it doesn't make as much fiscal sense for energy companies to expend huge amounts of capital on speculative endeavors seeking to either (1) develop alternative sources of energy or (2) develop alternative sources of oil (e.g. from shale, deep sea wells, coal-to-oil conversion). Often, those endeavors wouldn't have potential to pay off for many years, and then only (sufficiently in light of various risks) if oil prices rose considerably. Luckily, many energy companies did invest large amounts of speculative capital with the expectation that oil prices would rise considerably, or we'd be in even worse shape than we are now.

As for natural gas - it's more an infrastructure driven demand story than oil is. Sometimes export and import realities are more a function of existing (and proximate) infrastructure, and less a function of overall production potential.

 

[Tilted]

According to yesterday's release, the U.S. trade deficit was $46.3 Billion in January, up from $40.3 Billion in December and $34.6 Billion in January of 2010. That was on $214.1 Billion worth of imports and $167.7 Billion worth of exports.

Our petroleum deficit: $26.7 Billion
Our crude oil deficit: $25.3 Billion

That last number equates to $800+ Million / day or $2.60+ / day for each man, each woman, each child, and each other. Maybe we should all set out an 'oil jar' and toss 2-1/2 bucks in it each day for each member of our household, to get a sense of how much money we are paying the foreign interests that provide us with our daily black gold fix.

 

[Tilted]

For giggles, the the monthly data for July (the latest reported):


Our trade deficit: $44.8 Billion

Our goods deficit: $60.6 Billion
Our services surplus: $15.8 Billion

Our petroleum deficit: $25.6 Billion
Our crude oil deficit: $26.3 Billion


So, our net importing of crude oil accounted for 59% of our total trade deficit and 43% of our goods trade deficit. Again: Our much referenced trade deficit problem is, in very large part, a crude oil import problem.

 

[Tilted]

Revisiting these numbers for the heck of it, here's the latest monthly report. The July 2013 numbers for comparison with the July 2011 numbers from post #8 (which were later revised slightly):

Our trade deficit: $39.1 Billion

Our goods deficit: $58.6 Billion
Our services surplus: $19.4 Billion

Our petroleum deficit: $18.8 Billion
Our crude oil deficit: $23.1 Billion


So, the monthly deficit is a bit smaller, but crude oil still accounts for 59% of it (and 39% of the goods deficit).

 

[Tilted]

And here are the 2012 numbers to compare with the 2010 numbers from the first post:

The U.S. trade deficit for 2012 was $534.7 Billion. That was on $2,745.2 Billion worth of imports and $2,210.6 Billion worth of exports.

Our goods trade deficit was $741.5 Billion. Our services trade surplus was $206.8 Billion.

Our petroleum deficit was $291.3 Billion in 2012. The crude oil deficit was likely a little more than that - north of $300 Billion. I'd have to pull an older report to get an exact number.