Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

nhboy

Ubi bene ibi patria
Link to original article.

"The term “momentum” is used very often in political coverage — but reporters and analysts seldom pause to consider what it means.

Let me tell you what I think it ought to mean: that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. That is, it ought to imply that a candidate is gaining ground in the race — and, furthermore, that he is likely to continue to gain ground.

As a thesis or prediction about how polls behave, this notion is a bit dubious, especially in general elections. In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.

(Where might there be clearer evidence for momentum, as I’ve defined it? In primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates in the race and voters are behaving tactically in choosing among them. But there is little evidence of it in general elections.)

The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)

But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.

Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.

Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls."
 

Dontel58

New Member
Mr. Boy, the female gender gap is gonnnnnnne, Ohio is tied and Romney is gaining ground with Michigan and Pennsylvania. Oh, I forgot most polls have Romney with double digit lead with independents, translation the undecided. Also, you have a Democrat Congressman's son in trouble for showing O'Keefe how to commit voter fraud in Virginia and threatening letters in Florida not to vote for Romney.

This is starting to look like this is Romney's election to lose but I will not celebrating until Obama concedes to Romney. Even though he may have to be forced to by the Supreme Court.
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Looking at Gallup today, they show...

Among registered voters Obama: 48% Romney: 47%.
Among likely voters Romney: 50% Obama 47%.

We shall see. A lot can happen in two weeks.
 

bresamil

wandering aimlessly
blog. its a blog, not an article. it may be associated with the nytimes but its still a blog, not an article.
 
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