Stocks

[GWguy]

So, all day the stock market has been hovering around 0% change +/- a few points.

Boehner gets re-appoint as speaker, stocks suddenly down about 40 points.

 

[thatguy]

Wirelessly posted

So, all day the stock market has been hovering around 0% change +/- a few points.

Boehner gets re-appoint as speaker, stocks suddenly down about 40 points.

Obviously, it's Obamas fault.

 

[Tilted]

So, all day the stock market has been hovering around 0% change +/- a few points.

Boehner gets re-appoint as speaker, stocks suddenly down about 40 points.

It was actually the release of the Fed minutes that caused that noticeable downturn at about 2:00 PM EST. Speaker Boehner had been reelected about 20 minutes earlier and the surety of that reelection was probably apparent some minutes before that.

I was surprised that the equity markets didn't react even more to the (craved after) hints from the Fed minutes, what with the Federal Reserve's farts and the anticipation thereof being the major drivers of equity markets that they are. Bond markets reacted pretty suddenly as well.

The line from the minutes that caught the markets' attention was this one:

Several [members of the FOMC] thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet.

In other words, more than one (and probably more than 2 or 3) of the current Committee's members seem to think that we may have primed the money pump about enough. The more than one part represents a change.

Compare these passages from the respective minutes from the two most recent FOMC meetings.

Mid-December meeting:

In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, all members but one judged that continued provision of monetary accommodation was warranted in order to support further progress toward the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judged that such accommodation should be provided in part by continuing to purchase MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and by purchasing longer-term Treasury securities, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month, following the completion of the maturity extension program at the end of the year. The Committee also maintained its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS and decided that, starting in January, it will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. While almost all members thought that the asset purchase program begun in September had been effective and supportive of growth, they also generally saw that the benefits of ongoing purchases were uncertain and that the potential costs could rise as the size of the balance sheet increased. Various members stressed the importance of a continuing assessment of labor market developments and reviews of the program’s efficacy and costs at upcoming FOMC meetings. In considering the outlook for the labor market and the broader economy, a few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013, while a few others emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases. Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet. One member viewed any additional purchases as unwarranted.

Late-October meeting:

In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting. Accordingly, all but one member judged that maintaining the current, highly accommodative stance of monetary policy was warranted in order to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. The Committee judged that continuing both the purchases of MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and the existing program to extend the average maturity of its Treasury securities holdings remained appropriate. The Committee also agreed to maintain its policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS. One member opposed further asset purchases because he viewed them as unlikely to help the Committee achieve its goals and because he thought that purchases of MBS represented inappropriate credit allocation. Many members saw the adjustments in the Committee’s forward guidance at the September meeting as having been effective in communicating its intention to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens and judged that the guidance remained appropriate at this meeting. However, one member continued to object to the calendar-date-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate.