Right now, the headlines are dominated with stories about the deep and thorough dysfunction of the federally-built Obamacare insurance exchange. It’s a serious problem. If the exchanges aren’t fixed soon, the likely outcome is that older, sicker, and poorer people sign up, while everyone else goes without coverage. That, in turn, will imbalance the insurance pool in the exchanges, making its products more expensive and subsidy-dependent. Those facing cancellation of their existing coverage face the greatest risk under the worst-case scenario.
But there is a best-case scenario, especially from the standpoint of the law’s supporters. It’s that the exchanges eventually get fixed, and turn out to be popular, even among the young men—the “bros”—who bear the steepest costs under the new system. If they do, not only will Obamacare be here to stay, but the law could end up evolving into an effective replacement for our older, single-payer health-care entitlements, Medicare and Medicaid.
From where we stand today, unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that the Obama administration has a handle on the problems with the federal exchange. Young men seem no more likely to buy a costlier insurance product than they were to buy one, pre-Obamacare, that was more affordable. And so we should remain concerned about the likelihood of the law’s ultimate success.
