First quarter GDP now estimated to have shrank 2.9%

[Tilted]

The GDP for the first quarter has been revised to -2.9%. I note this for a couple of reasons that make it interesting to me. First, this is the biggest third estimate revision in almost 40 years. Second, this would make the first quarter GDP change the worst outside of a recession in nearly 60 years. And, no, I don't think we're back in (what would most commonly technically be considered) a recession. For one thing, I think the second quarter GDP is going to rebound greatly. I say that based on what many businesses report seeing and based on a multitude of economic indicators that have been pointing to a much better second quarter. I also say that based on what many businesses reported regarding the first quarter - e.g., that they saw large weather effects in that quarter (or the earlier part of that quarter).


[h=1]Bad to worse: US economy shrank more than expected in Q1[/h]
And here is this morning's BEA release.

 

[tommyjo]

Nice to see someone post a rational, fact based report on GDP.

How unusual.

 

[somdwatch]

Nice to see someone post a rational, fact based report on GDP.

How unusual.

How Biased and Pessimistic!

 

[MMDad]

Nice to see someone post a rational, fact based report on GDP.

How unusual.

You could start being rational and set an example. You know, instead of just dropping by to insult people and never providing any actual facts.

 

[Larry Gude]

The GDP for the first quarter has been revised to -2.9%. I note this for a couple of reasons that make it interesting to me. First, this is the biggest third estimate revision in almost 40 years. Second, this would make the first quarter GDP change the worst outside of a recession in nearly 60 years. And, no, I don't think we're back in (what would most commonly technically be considered) a recession. For one thing, I think the second quarter GDP is going to rebound greatly. I say that based on what many businesses report seeing and based on a multitude of economic indicators that have been pointing to a much better second quarter. I also say that based on what many businesses reported regarding the first quarter - e.g., that they saw large weather effects in that quarter (or the earlier part of that quarter).


[h=1]Bad to worse: US economy shrank more than expected in Q1[/h]
And here is this morning's BEA release.

In the mean time QE is still providing an artificial 6% to GDP...

 

[Gilligan]

Nice to see someone post a rational, fact based report on GDP.

How unusual.

I liked this part the best. Same for you, sweet cheeks?

First, this is the biggest third estimate revision in almost 40 years. Second, this would make the first quarter GDP change the worst outside of a recession in nearly 60 years

 

[Tilted]

This first quarter GDP number was just revised to -2.1% while the first estimate for second quarter GDP is 4.0%. I think that will put expectations for the full year in the 2.5% neighborhood.

Here's the BEA release.


EDIT: To fix link.

 

[Lurk]

This first quarter GDP number was just revised to -2.1% while the first estimate for second quarter GDP is 4.0%. I think that will put expectations for the full year in the 2.5% neighborhood.

Here's the BEA release.

Linkie no workie. Wonder if Obama supporters are blocking the public from reading the continuing bad news.

 

[Hijinx]

You could start being rational and set an example. You know, instead of just dropping by to insult people and never providing any actual facts.

Amen Brother.

 

[Tilted]

Linkie no workie. Wonder if Obama supporters are blocking the public from reading the continuing bad news.

Thanks. It's fixed now, error was on my end.

 

[Baja28]

Nice to see someone post a rational, fact based report on GDP.

How unusual.

You do this to everyone you speak to.