Why Does Obama Want Everyone to Clean Toilets or Flip Burger

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
Why Does Obama Want Everyone to Clean Toilets or Flip Burgers at McDonalds?


My new book, “The Murder of the Middle Class” laments the loss of well-paying jobs that form the foundation of the famous American Dream. This is not happening by accident, mistake or coincidence. This is a purposeful plan to create equality. Unfortunately, Obama’s version of “equality” translates to “shared misery.” We’re all going to be equal, but living in poverty, misery and malaise.

First, that creates “social justice.” In Obama’s mind, it’s fair. Secondly it creates a two-class society – with both the top class (the super rich and corporate elite) and the bottom class (the poor) dependent on government.

Who’s in the middle? No one. The middle class is eliminated.

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Exhibit A is the June jobs report. What you heard from the media and the truth are two completely different things. The mainstream media trumpeted the June jobs report as good news. The truth is you are being lied to. The report was a disaster – as bad as it gets.

Let’s look beyond the headlines that said 288,000 new jobs were created. But no one bothered to explain what kind of jobs were created. The net positive 288,000 jobs breaks down to 523,000 full-time jobs lost and about 800,000 part-time jobs gained.
 

RPMDAD

Well-Known Member
Why Does Obama Want Everyone to Clean Toilets or Flip Burger

Because, that is what he is actually qualified to do.
 

tommyjo

New Member
Christ...so now you are stealth posting from Zerohedge? They proved in 2011 in that CAN'T READ THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT. Did you feel it was necessary to show that they STILL CAN'T READ THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT?!

Your idiotic Zerohedge source uses the part time FOR NON_ECONOMIC number from the household survey to make his 880k point and your idiot Wayne Root uses it to make the same ignorant point. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Maybe you should read the definition of part time for NON-ECONOMIC???? That's too much trouble, huh? It means the individuals WANTED part time work. Gee who might WANT part time work starting in June? Hmmm...go ahead see if you can figure it out.

If your idiotic source wanted to make hay out of part time jobs numbers, then he should look at part time for economic reasons. But those numbers aren't as large...now are they?

Why do you keep posting garbage when it is so easily shown to be wrong or so misleading as to be pointless?
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Christ...so now you are stealth posting from Zerohedge? They proved in 2011 in that CAN'T READ THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT. Did you feel it was necessary to show that they STILL CAN'T READ THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT?!

Your idiotic Zerohedge source uses the part time FOR NON_ECONOMIC number from the household survey to make his 880k point and your idiot Wayne Root uses it to make the same ignorant point. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Maybe you should read the definition of part time for NON-ECONOMIC???? That's too much trouble, huh? It means the individuals WANTED part time work. Gee who might WANT part time work starting in June? Hmmm...go ahead see if you can figure it out.

If your idiotic source wanted to make hay out of part time jobs numbers, then he should look at part time for economic reasons. But those numbers aren't as large...now are they?

Why do you keep posting garbage when it is so easily shown to be wrong or so misleading as to be pointless?

Why don't you respond to Tilted in the other thread?
 

mamatutu

mama to two
Why don't you respond to Tilted in the other thread?

:lol: She knows she could not hold her own. And, Tilted has been nothing but kind in trying to respond to her answers in other threads, even though I could tell he wanted to let loose on her. He is forever the gentleman. :lol: IMO, TJ is like a Pelosi or Reid. They are hit and run also. I wonder if TJ is as old as they are. My husband was commenting tonight after reading an article about how many approaching octogenarians there are in our government at this point. I hope some of them die soon. I will die, too, someday, so I can say that.
 
GURPS - In this case I think it's The Blaze that's trying to pull the wool over people's eyes - when it comes to that Exhibit A that is, as I'm not talking about the job quality / Obama's nefarious plans point (on that, well, it is what it is - the guy's trying to sell a book). Recent employment reports have been quite good - that's not a lie, it isnt spin, it's the truth. June's report was not a disaster, that's an absolutely absurd assertion (an AAA).

In any given Employment Report, no matter how good it is on the whole - I mean actually good, not just seemingly good (though I don't mean to suggest that recent reports have been spectacular, certainly not historically) - you can always find some numbers on which to base a strained argument that it's actually bad. There are so many measures within the BLS's reporting, and so many different ways of measuring similar things, that there will always be single data points - some of which are anomalous, some of which are otherwise misleading - that seem to cut a particular way, especially if someone doesn't investigate the methodology and meaning behind the numbers. There really is a lot of information in those Employment Reports, typical news reporting only covers a tiny portion of it. And narrative peddlers typically only pay attention to the pieces which, in a given month, can be drawn out as supporting the narrative they're peddling. What makes the practices of some of them even more disingenuous is that they'll pay attention to (i.e. draw the attention of their marks to) different things from different reports - the measures that they suggest one month are important because they seem to cut a particular way will be completely ignored in other months when they seem to cut a different way. And in those months some data point which previously apparently shouldn't have been given much weight becomes what really matters. This kind of rhetoric, this kind of narrative-driven myopia, is sad and quite comical at the same time.

Back from the general to the specific at hand, here The Blaze is trying to correspond things that don't correspond to each other. They're confounding metrics that measure different things and do so in very different ways (i.e. particular measures from the Establishment Survey and particular measures from the Household Survey that don't, and aren't supposed to, line up - they're pretending that they do). Further, I think they're doing so to paint a picture that's more Munch than Rembrandt.

So anyway... to address the numbers they offered up in the piece: They're referring to measures from Table A9 of the report. In particular they're referring to measurements of (1) the number of employed people who usually work 35 plus hours per week and (2) the number of employed people who usually work less than 35 hours per week, regardless of why they work less (i.e. whether for economic or noneconomic reasons).

I'd note a few things about the part-time measure referred to here. It is different than other part-time measures that are sometimes referred to and is not the one which factors into the broadest underemployment measure (U-6). This one doesn't depend on what the person in question did in the most recent reference week, it depends on what they usually do. So it doesn't count someone that usually works full-time but didn't during this past month (i.e. during the one week in the past month that is looked at) for whatever reason. This measure does however count people who work part-time for reasons such as familial obligations, school, or semi-retirement. Such noneconomic reasons account for something like 70% of the part-timers currently in this measure.

Perhaps more important than those things though, at least when it comes to how much attention we should pay to monthly moves in these measures, is that they are part of the Household Survey. That's a sample survey. A sampling of people are interviewed and asked various questions about their employment situation. From that sampling various measures for the population at large are extrapolated. One result of this method is that measures found in the Household Survey tend to bounce around, and not necessarily as a result of actual changes over a given month in what they are trying to measure. Those measures can vibrate around reality, so to speak; looking at them month-to-month they can be noisy even when reality is quiet - or, in the alternative, not move much in a given month even when what they are trying to measure actually does. They will however, when looked at over a long enough period of time, mirror the trends found in reality and even as single data points they offer a pretty fair estimate of the actual counts they represent.

I've tried to make this point over and over, we shouldn't read too much into single month movements in Household Survey measures - whether they're good, bad or indifferent. That's especially true when they indicate an outsized move or seem anomalous relative to other aspects of the Employment Report or other information that's available. The Household Survey data is far more useful, and paints a picture that more consistently reflects reality, when it is looked at over time. It sometimes lies, even when we consider it in detail rather than just as the headline numbers, when we look at month-to-month moves; it generally tells the truth, at least when we consider and understand the details, when we look at it over 6 months or a year.

It's happened before - it wasn't too long ago as I recall - that pundits found a large spike over a month or two in the part-time numbers and raised the alarms that the sky was falling and everyone was now working part-time. Then, in the months that followed when the anomalous spike - which was most likely just a consequence of the nature of sample surveys - corrected itself (i.e. the part-time numbers came back down, even below where they had been before the spike) those same pundits somehow didn't take notice. People were left thinking the narrative they'd been sold was true, that part-time employment was climbing while full-time employment was falling. It wasn't true, the opposite was more so true - the full-time to part-time trend (which had previously been true in the wake of the recession) had stopped some time ago and had actually started to reverse.

So with all that said, let's get down to the brass tacks. Using the measures that The Blaze wants to point to, and understanding that they are from a sample survey and bounce around Tourette's-like from month to month, what do you think those measures have shown over the last year or two? How much has part-time employment gone up or down and how does that compare to how much full-time employment has? Go one step further if you want and compare the two looking only at part-time employment that's the result of economic conditions. Then let's keep an eye on what happens to these numbers over the next 3 or 6 months. If the PT keeps going up and FT down (which is not what had happened in the months previous to this last one), then there'll be something there to be concerned about.

I can give you the answers to what I just asked if you want, but maybe you want to look for yourself to see what's actually gone on. And, btw, if we decide that we just can't trust the BLS's data - fair enough. But then that would mean not putting much stock in what The Blaze is trying to make you believe (as it's based on that BLS data) nor in what many other narrative peddlers have been trying to sell.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
GURPS - In this case I think it's The Blaze that's trying to pull the wool over people's eyes - when it comes to that Exhibit A that is, as I'm not talking about the job quality / Obama's nefarious plans point (on that, well, it is what it is - the guy's trying to sell a book). Recent employment reports have been quite good - that's not a lie, it isnt spin, it's the truth. June's report was not a disaster, that's an absolutely absurd assertion (an AAA).



:yay:
 

Did you get a chance to check out what those part-time and full-time employment numbers have done over recent years as I suggested?

We'll be getting July's employment numbers tomorrow morning. I'm expecting another strong report - e.g. more than 200,000 nonfarm payrolls added again, but who knows how the Household Survey numbers will shake out.

It isn't a huge deal so I'm not making a separate thread for it, but I think it's worth noting that the seasonally adjusted 4-week average for initial UI claims reached its lowest level in 8 years today (297,500). I like to convert those totals to rates based on the size of the covered pool. That number converts to 0.226% based on a covered employment number of more than 131 million. My handy dandy spreadsheet tells me that's the 17th lowest rate since the numbers have been kept, going back to 1971. So, over 40+ years, only 16 times has the 4-week average for initial jobless claims been better than it is now. Again, that only means so much and I wouldn't make too big a deal about it - but it's a fairly positive indicator, only part of one side of the equation though it may be.

I'd also note - and this is especially more for curiosity's sake than to make some grand claim as I only put so much stock in weekly initial UI numbers (as distinguished from 4-week averages) - that the jobless claims number for the previous week (the one ending July 19th) is 279,000. The rate for that (0.2121%) is the second lowest ever since the numbers have been kept. That's over 40+ years times 52 weeks.
 
The report was a little weaker than expected, but nonfarm payrolls adds was still 209,000 (with modest upward prior month revisions). The Household Survey numbers (at least the main ones I've looked at already) were pretty quiet, though the headline unemployment rate did tick up owing to a few people returning to the labor force.

I think this report is just what the equity markets ordered after yesterday's major sell-offs. It's decent but not great, so little reason for new worries about the economy in general and at the same time it shouldn't really add to concerns that labor market slack is starting to be taken up so fast that the Fed is likely to move quickly to raise rates as soon as QE is tapered away. I think some numbers from yesterday got some in the markets worrying about the latter.
 
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