The S&P 500

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
I think it is going to bleed out for a couple more weeks. Hopefully just a couple more weeks. I have been out of stock since the third week of May, I jumped the gun a bit and would been better off if I had waited till the middle of Sept but can't win them all.
 

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
I think it is going to bleed out for a couple more weeks. Hopefully just a couple more weeks. I have been out of stock since the third week of May, I jumped the gun a bit and would been better off if I had waited till the middle of Sept but can't win them all.
You do not lose any money until you sell.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
You do not lose any money until you sell.

Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.
 

b23hqb

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.

Opportunity can never be recovered. I've had a bad week, and am downgrading my risk tolerance tomorrow from moderate to conservative for a while.
 

tommyjo

New Member
Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.

Only one problem, by your own admission, you blew the front side call. You got out too low.

Your second problem is that you have about a 100% chance of blowing the back side call (when to get back in) as well.

According to your rough exit time, you panicked around 24.5 on C fund...in mid Sept the C fund was in the low 26s...so your already lost out on about 7.3% return opportunity and you've missed your divs that would have been reinvested (another opportunity you have already lost). . Of course, you won't get back in if it goes down 10% (that's IF the C fund falls a full 10%)...you'll miss that too (for no other reason than you are human and for the additional reason that you are obviously overconfident in your abilities).

That's a brilliant plan you are working on.

2008 was a SLIGHTLY different market than now. Although if your math then was as suspect as it is now...
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Only one problem, by your own admission, you blew the front side call. You got out too low.

Your second problem is that you have about a 100% chance of blowing the back side call (when to get back in) as well.

According to your rough exit time, you panicked around 24.5 on C fund...in mid Sept the C fund was in the low 26s...so your already lost out on about 7.3% return opportunity and you've missed your divs that would have been reinvested (another opportunity you have already lost). . Of course, you won't get back in if it goes down 10% (that's IF the C fund falls a full 10%)...you'll miss that too (for no other reason than you are human and for the additional reason that you are obviously overconfident in your abilities).

That's a brilliant plan you are working on.

2008 was a SLIGHTLY different market than now. Although if your math then was as suspect as it is now...

Think what you want but in 15 years I have built a balance of a bit over 400k. So lets say I save myself a 10% drop that is 40k, it took a really long time to save that first 40k.

I know that I am not going to hit the peaks, as long as I save myself something on the drops I am very happy, even if I get back in on the downward side.

Nonw of the funds pay dividends they are figured into the share price. It wasn't the C fund that I got out of I was using C for simplicity sakes, it was L2040 that I got out of. I went to 25% into the F and 75% in the G. I passed the same share price I got out at this past week, except what I put into the G and F grew so right now I have more than I would have had if I stayed in.

Pretty sure there are more bad days ahead.
 

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
Think what you want but in 15 years I have built a balance of a bit over 400k. So lets say I save myself a 10% drop that is 40k, it took a really long time to save that first 40k.

I know that I am not going to hit the peaks, as long as I save myself something on the drops I am very happy, even if I get back in on the downward side.

Nonw of the funds pay dividends they are figured into the share price. It wasn't the C fund that I got out of I was using C for simplicity sakes, it was L2040 that I got out of. I went to 25% into the F and 75% in the G. I passed the same share price I got out at this past week, except what I put into the G and F grew so right now I have more than I would have had if I stayed in.

Pretty sure there are more bad days ahead.
C Fund last 12 months 19.83%
 

mamatutu

mama to two
I have increased my risk with my attempts at timing the market, I am doing it for the possibility of increasing my returns.

I used to work for a market timer back in the day in Potomac. He couldn't even get it right, and that was his biz. I saw some pretty bad stuff while I was in his employ. My advice is play it safe. If you are nervous about the market, only keep about 25% in; the rest cash. Then again, many of the money gurus on tv/books, etc. say leave it and ride it out. All I know is that my parents put their faith in Merrill Lynch since I was a wee one, and they lost a bundle. I would say just go with what your gut tells you, as in your intuition and what feels right for you.
 

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
I used to work for a market timer back in the day in Potomac. He couldn't even get it right, and that was his biz. I saw some pretty bad stuff while I was in his employ. My advice is play it safe. If you are nervous about the market, only keep about 25% in; the rest cash. Then again, many of the money gurus on tv/books, etc. say leave it and ride it out. All I know is that my parents put their faith in Merrill Lynch since I was a wee one, and they lost a bundle. I would say just go with what your gut tells you, as in your intuition and what feels right for you.
Do you know that I consider you an idiot?
 
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