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"The chance of a federal government shutdown increased dramatically and precipitously last week from 40 percent to 60 percent. It’s now more likely than not that a shutdown will result from the craziness going on in Washington.
With the House already in recess until after Labor Day and the Senate about to leave town this week, all of the components that had led to my previous 40 percent estimate got worse. There’s now even less time – Congress will be in session only a handful of days before the fiscal year begins on October 1 – for the House and Senate to devote to appropriations.
The leadership has already admitted that nothing has been decided about how to deal with this situation. In other words, this will be the kind of last minute, ad hoc decision that in the past has repeatedly failed and led to unwanted consequences…like a shutdown. In budget technical terms, the House and Senate leadership will be flying by the seat of its pants.
With the House having passed only six of the fiscal 2016 appropriations and the full Senate having considered none, few of the major program decisions have yet to be made and there won’t be time in September for Congress to make many (or even any) of them.
Add to the lack of time the ever-hardening positions on the key appropriations question of military vs. domestic spending. Congressional Republicans continue to insist that there be more for the Pentagon and less for domestic departments and agencies; House and Senate Democrats continue to demand more for both and are willing to get in the way of legislation that doesn’t do that. It’s not clear at this late point in the year how the continuing resolution that will be needed to keep the government open in the absence of regular appropriations can possibly satisfy both sides.
Meanwhile, the White House keeps promising a veto if the CR has higher military but lower domestic spending, and the threat seems real."
"The chance of a federal government shutdown increased dramatically and precipitously last week from 40 percent to 60 percent. It’s now more likely than not that a shutdown will result from the craziness going on in Washington.
With the House already in recess until after Labor Day and the Senate about to leave town this week, all of the components that had led to my previous 40 percent estimate got worse. There’s now even less time – Congress will be in session only a handful of days before the fiscal year begins on October 1 – for the House and Senate to devote to appropriations.
The leadership has already admitted that nothing has been decided about how to deal with this situation. In other words, this will be the kind of last minute, ad hoc decision that in the past has repeatedly failed and led to unwanted consequences…like a shutdown. In budget technical terms, the House and Senate leadership will be flying by the seat of its pants.
With the House having passed only six of the fiscal 2016 appropriations and the full Senate having considered none, few of the major program decisions have yet to be made and there won’t be time in September for Congress to make many (or even any) of them.
Add to the lack of time the ever-hardening positions on the key appropriations question of military vs. domestic spending. Congressional Republicans continue to insist that there be more for the Pentagon and less for domestic departments and agencies; House and Senate Democrats continue to demand more for both and are willing to get in the way of legislation that doesn’t do that. It’s not clear at this late point in the year how the continuing resolution that will be needed to keep the government open in the absence of regular appropriations can possibly satisfy both sides.
Meanwhile, the White House keeps promising a veto if the CR has higher military but lower domestic spending, and the threat seems real."
