Trump's chances

[SamSpade]

I've mentioned before that, out of all the polling places, the ones that are there for BETTING purposes tend to be *very* good.

So my first stop is usually FiveThirtyEight.

It's had Trump's chances of winning somewhere in the mid-twenties (as a percent). It also shows, state by state what his chances are per state, and three different types of looking at the outcome - based on polling, based on strictly current polling (if the election were held TODAY) and based on polling and forecasting (includes trends and other things).

His chances have nearly doubled in the last two to three weeks.

The other site that I tend to believe the most is PPP, only because in the last election, they were practically perfect in their forecast. (As opposed to Gallup, which came in last in a field of about a dozen and a half).
I also don't pay much mind to any poll unless it uses "Likely Voters" because anything else is window dressing - it doesn't mean anything if you're a registered voter, but you haven't voted in years and probably won't this time either.
And it means nothing at all if you're not registered to vote, because votes elect candidates, not opinions.

What I HAVE noticed over the last two months is that battleground states have really boiled down to four. All others being somewhat stable, if Trump wins North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Florida - he wins.
He currently leads in three of those (not Virginia).

He is also gaining ground significantly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada.

I'm thinking if he wins the first debate, it's over.

 

[Grumpy]

I'm thinking if he wins the first debate, it's over.

Mitt kicked azz in the first debate in 2012, then for some reason gave up. It ain't over til its over.

 

[PsyOps]

I'm thinking if he wins the first debate, it's over.

I'm really trying to imagine what this is going to look like.

Trump really struggles with specifics and details. And now that he has changed his tactics, how will he go after her without looking childish or misogynistic?

Clinton will just continually come across as a liar. While she will be able to discuss the issues more fluently, it will be impossible for her to spout her lines without deep distrust.

I’m really wondering what ‘winning’ in these debates will look like.

 

[SamSpade]

I'm really trying to imagine what this is going to look like.

Trump really struggles with specifics and details. And now that he has changed his tactics, how will he go after her without looking childish or misogynistic?

Clinton will just continually come across as a liar. While she will be able to discuss the issues more fluently, it will be impossible for her to spout her lines without deep distrust.

I’m really wondering what ‘winning’ in these debates will look like.

I dunno. Admittedly, the debates are partly cosmetic - we learned that in the Nixon Kennedy debates, where radio listeners claimed Nixon won, but TV viewers claimed Kennedy won.
Also, it's visual - who looks more calm, poised, makes the right comeback, who knows their stuff and who is faster on the draw when it comes to a good argument.

Neither of them have a record of Jeopardy-like swiftness when it comes to argument. Like Gore - smart or not - they'll fall back on inserting crap they already know and dodge questions.

I have no idea how it will turn out.

 

[Clem72]

I dunno. Admittedly, the debates are partly cosmetic - we learned that in the Nixon Kennedy debates, where radio listeners claimed Nixon won, but TV viewers claimed Kennedy won.

So I remember that being a big issue at the time, and have heard it brought up every few years. But I don't remember if there was a study that accounted for the obvious bias in who would have been watching vs listening in 1960. It's not like everyone had a TV.

 

[SamSpade]

So I remember that being a big issue at the time, and have heard it brought up every few years. But I don't remember if there was a study that accounted for the obvious bias in who would have been watching vs listening in 1960. It's not like everyone had a TV.

I never remember it being polled or scientifically examined - it was just asked of people and they gave their answers.

The REASON is clear enough - on paper, on the transcript, Nixon would be a winner. However, without makeup under the lights, he LOOKED awful.

It's usually the singular event pointing to the way we market Presidential candidates, who previously were not that visible to the general public.

 

[Larry Gude]

Mitt kicked azz in the first debate in 2012, then for some reason gave up. It ain't over til its over.

Yup.

The 'for some reason' was that Mitt got scolded by the powers that be that taking ANY GOP blame for what was wrong was simply unacceptable. That's probably the only thing that matters; will Trump continue to not care about the feelings of those who lead us to downfall and continue to call them out and continue to get the same effect Mitt did that one time, credibility, or will he sell the thing out? He continues to take a share of the blame then all his attacks on THEIR mistakes will remain credible and he wins.

 

[Larry Gude]

I'm really trying to imagine what this is going to look like.

Trump really struggles with specifics and details. And now that he has changed his tactics, how will he go after her without looking childish or misogynistic?

Clinton will just continually come across as a liar. While she will be able to discuss the issues more fluently, it will be impossible for her to spout her lines without deep distrust.

I’m really wondering what ‘winning’ in these debates will look like.

No one whose gonna vote for him gives a crap about specifics. His "Don't worry about it, I'll be the boss, hire experts and make the best decisions then' resonates because that's what a leader does. Not this asinaine "I have all the answers' crap we somehow want to think is true.

Hillary HAS to fluster him somehow and that is NOT something she's ever shown the ability to do. She'll try some ham handed crap about him being mean to women and being a bigot. All he has to do is call her a tired old hag of a loser, the worst 'cankles' he's never seen, can't keep her husband on the porch and has severe resting bytch face and a fat butt while declaring how none of his exes left because his dick was too small and he wins.

:shrug:

 

[vraiblonde]

Mitt kicked azz in the first debate in 2012, then for some reason gave up. It ain't over til its over.

This ^^

I admit I get a kick of of polls saying that Trump is ahead, but that's just immaturity and ha-ha on my part. I hope Trump does well in the debate, and I hope Hillary has another "episode" right in the middle of it. But that is also for my own entertainment because Trump could knock it out of the park and Hillary could collapse on the stage gasping, and the media would still say she was brilliant, Trump was horrible, and Hillary won the debate.

 

[vraiblonde]

No one whose gonna vote for him gives a crap about specifics. His "Don't worry about it, I'll be the boss, hire experts and make the best decisions then' resonates because that's what a leader does. Not this asinaine "I have all the answers' crap we somehow want to think is true.

Thank you. Any president - or anybody at all - who says they have all the answers and they're an expert on everything is a lying sack and not fit to lead. Not one person who has ever created anything successful did it alone and by their knowledge solely. Any leader worth their salt will put experts in place, because that's what experts are for.