How large is the secret, undersampled, undercounted Trump vote?

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
I tend to doubt - doubt - in polling. There have been MANY times in the past when polling has been a poor bellwether of the outcome, because circumstances went outside of the normal parameters assumed by pollsters.

But I also doubt they're accurate when over the same period there are *massive* differences in polling.

The news shows tend to believe the RCP average. I think that's a good start, but I would also throw out outliers which are consistently on the edge of reason.
When one poll puts Trump ahead by 4 and another puts Hillary ahead by 10, at least one of them is wrong but likely both are very wrong.

I do however see indications that there is probably more Trump support than is measured.

The problem is the focus on "Likely" voters. Pollsters don't grab names out of a hate and do guesswork, because you can't set up your sample unless you know SOMETHING about the person you're asking.
Despite what you think, polls are not random, nor SHOULD a poll be if it has any chance of being accurate.

So how do they know? Well, *past* data, for one. Voter rolls, for another. Because it's pretty much a waste of time to poll people who aren't even registered to vote.
Since a large portion of registered voters STILL don't show up at the polls, they go with "Likely Voters" which is usually very accurate. "Likely" being defined as someone who has voted recently and often
(often in the sense of, in each cycle - not illegally).

But there's a problem - "Likely" voters completely miss two groups of people - NEW voters and people who have chosen to exercise their right to vote who haven't been voting.
They're pretty much out of the sample completely. If they should be significant, the polling will be all wrong. If not, their numbers will be overwhelmed by the rest of the voters.

Some polls use samples that reflect either registration enrollment or past experience - for instance, if 32% of the voting population is registered as Democrat, that's what the sample should be.
On the other hand, if 34% of the persons who VOTED were registered Democrats, they may go with THAT. But what happens when a significant surge occurs in any demographic?
There's no accounting for it. I think pollsters KNEW that in 2008, many voters were going to show up to cast a vote for the first black President - and also accurately noticed that not nearly as many
showed up to re-elect him, although it was enough.

But no one has a clue this time around.

WILL we see a Reagan type surprise turnaround, or will the pollsters be spot on? Honestly, I think election night will have a LOT of surprises. A LOT of them.
And they may not favor YOUR candidate, whomever he/she may be.
 

officeguy

Well-Known Member
Sure, if you think that 3000 people are representative of a 180mil electorate, yes than you could think that there is more support for the little orange traffic barrel than the polls show.
 

mAlice

professional daydreamer
This

And this

Maybe it's a lot more than 12 to 15 people nationwide after all

Or maybe even this

Now's the time to panic, liberals.

I believe Trump is going to win, and I think it will be by a landslide. I may be wrong, but there are some things that I find strange about this election.

The first thing that stands out is the yard signs and bumper stickers. Where are they? Trump supporters aren't putting signs out because they don't want their houses/vehicles vandalized. Hillary minions don't care. They are the crazy, screaming SJW's who think the world revolves around them anyway. They should have Hillary signs all over the place. Where are they?

Another thing is the media lies. If you do the research, you can find all kinds of video interviews of blacks/women/jews/hispanics/naturalized citizens/etc; who will be voting for Trump.

Another thing is the "gut" feeling. I had it with Obama, too.

Like I said, I may be wrong, but I hope not.
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
I believe Trump is going to win, and I think it will be by a landslide. I may be wrong, but there are some things that I find strange about this election.

The first thing that stands out is the yard signs and bumper stickers. Where are they? Trump supporters aren't putting signs out because they don't want their houses/vehicles vandalized. Hillary minions don't care. They are the crazy, screaming SJW's who think the world revolves around them anyway. They should have Hillary signs all over the place. Where are they?

Another thing is the media lies. If you do the research, you can find all kinds of video interviews of blacks/women/jews/hispanics/naturalized citizens/etc; who will be voting for Trump.

Another thing is the "gut" feeling. I had it with Obama, too.

Like I said, I may be wrong, but I hope not.

I have no idea who will win, I am busy building my Nuclear shelter just in case Hillary does and starts WW3 with Russia.
 

h3mech

Active Member
I believe Trump is going to win, and I think it will be by a landslide. I may be wrong, but there are some things that I find strange about this election.

The first thing that stands out is the yard signs and bumper stickers. Where are they? Trump supporters aren't putting signs out because they don't want their houses/vehicles vandalized. Hillary minions don't care. They are the crazy, screaming SJW's who think the world revolves around them anyway. They should have Hillary signs all over the place. Where are they?

Another thing is the media lies. If you do the research, you can find all kinds of video interviews of blacks/women/jews/hispanics/naturalized citizens/etc; who will be voting for Trump.

Another thing is the "gut" feeling. I had it with Obama, too.

Like I said, I may be wrong, but I hope not.


we completely agree trump by a landslide
 

black dog

Free America
I predict a huge Trump landslide.

Today, Ronald Reagan’s 1980 defeat of Jimmy Carter seems like it must have been a foregone conclusion. After all, Reagan won 44 out of 50 states and beat Carter by over 10 percent in the final popular vote tally. But only a week or so before the election, Carter was ahead. A late October Gallop Poll put the incumbent Carter up by 8 percent among registered voters and by 3 percent among likely voters. But Reagan’s performance in that contest’s only televised debate, held on October 28th, changed voters’ minds, and the ground shifted under Carter’s feet. Despite late polls putting him behind, Reagan accomplished a dramatic victory.
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron

The LAT poll has had Trump ahead more frequently than Hillary. I have no idea how they come to their data, though.

And again, I have never understood how the actual polls can show Trump ahead, but the reporters/pundits/CW squawk repeatedly that Hillary is killing Trump in the polls. Where is that information coming from? Because it's not coming from the polls themselves.
 

Larry Gude

Strung Out
WILL we see a Reagan type surprise turnaround, or will the pollsters be spot on? Honestly, I think election night will have a LOT of surprises. A LOT of them.
And they may not favor YOUR candidate, whomever he/she may be.

See, I like your point in general but I think the hatred of Trump and the hatred of Hillary will tend to cancel out. Plus, the D's and R's who can't stand their own candidate, who will not vote for them, will also tend to cancel out. I think turnout will be very low other than the passionate and that favors Trump. No one is much FOR Hillary whereas there is a FOR' Trump passion as well as being the 'new' as well as the traditional economy indicator as well as the consecutive party thing. There are a lot of little indicators that favor Trump, few that favor her. And yet, a lot of people, when it comes down to it, will they actually be able to vote for the guy when it's real?

Should be an interesting night!
 

black dog

Free America
Bet I pay more for my cell phone and internet than you SCUM

Hahahahahahaahahahahahaha,, you are delusional, and it's time to set down the pipe.
It's the TAXPAYERS SILLY, that pay for your phone and internet.
And let's not forget that Snap card..
 
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