Lefties get a bad case of DTS
- Thread starter Monello
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SamSpade
Well-Known Member
If Trump's first two years avoid another recession and have even marginal success - there's a good chance he'll beat the mid-term losses.
But largely for the same reason BUSH beat it too. No coattails.
In big elections, like '80 and '92, there's this wave of throw the bums out that tends to dislodge incumbents in districts where their party is favored - even by a little bit. You end up with a representative from the "other" party in a district that normally would not vote for him most of the time. People LIKE to think this is because there's this groundswell of new thinking overtaking the voters, but that doesn't happen. What happens MORE often is, the guy at the top of the ticket attracts more of his own party and pulls in a lot of people behind him, down lower on the ticket.
But in a squeaker of an election - the guy at the top usually doesn't manage that. There's not this huge wave of voter sentiment voting down the ticket for his party. What happens where there IS one, is that mid-terms, all that feel good vote in the other guy is gone - the White House isn't on the ticket - and voters often kick out the guy who just got in.
Now - make no mistake. Incumbents USUALLY win. Even in years where the party changes and there's a big deal about 50-60 seats changing hands, which is HUGE in the history of the House.
But it is STILL less than 20% of the House. Even in BIG CHANGE years, considerably better than 80% of the seats don't move, and in most years, much better than 90%.
The SENATE is another matter, and I think there's a really good chance the GOP will GAIN seats. Because the Senate has a term of six years, every two years close to a third of them are running for re-election. And therefore - there aren't as many. The Senate also has a very good retention rate for incumbents - but the wave "lags" because the term is longer. 2018's Senators up for re-election came aboard in 2012, during a year Obama won. And he still had coattails. And as many as eight Senators are seeking re-election in states Trump won this past year. In some states where he won - by a LOT. That's no guarantee - Manchin won in 2012 in a state where Romney won by almost 30 points. But it looks dire for the Democrats in 2018.
If the public gets sick of their tantrum - they will be digging their graves.
But largely for the same reason BUSH beat it too. No coattails.
In big elections, like '80 and '92, there's this wave of throw the bums out that tends to dislodge incumbents in districts where their party is favored - even by a little bit. You end up with a representative from the "other" party in a district that normally would not vote for him most of the time. People LIKE to think this is because there's this groundswell of new thinking overtaking the voters, but that doesn't happen. What happens MORE often is, the guy at the top of the ticket attracts more of his own party and pulls in a lot of people behind him, down lower on the ticket.
But in a squeaker of an election - the guy at the top usually doesn't manage that. There's not this huge wave of voter sentiment voting down the ticket for his party. What happens where there IS one, is that mid-terms, all that feel good vote in the other guy is gone - the White House isn't on the ticket - and voters often kick out the guy who just got in.
Now - make no mistake. Incumbents USUALLY win. Even in years where the party changes and there's a big deal about 50-60 seats changing hands, which is HUGE in the history of the House.
But it is STILL less than 20% of the House. Even in BIG CHANGE years, considerably better than 80% of the seats don't move, and in most years, much better than 90%.
The SENATE is another matter, and I think there's a really good chance the GOP will GAIN seats. Because the Senate has a term of six years, every two years close to a third of them are running for re-election. And therefore - there aren't as many. The Senate also has a very good retention rate for incumbents - but the wave "lags" because the term is longer. 2018's Senators up for re-election came aboard in 2012, during a year Obama won. And he still had coattails. And as many as eight Senators are seeking re-election in states Trump won this past year. In some states where he won - by a LOT. That's no guarantee - Manchin won in 2012 in a state where Romney won by almost 30 points. But it looks dire for the Democrats in 2018.
If the public gets sick of their tantrum - they will be digging their graves.
unless Trump has some MAJOR Scandal that affects the fly over state voters .....
they will continue to shake their heads at the coastal tantrums, Block Bloc Anarchists rioting, burning, beating Trump Supports unconscious and vote the Dems out
SamSpade
Well-Known Member
unless Trump has some MAJOR Scandal that affects the fly over state voters .....
they will continue to shake their heads at the coastal tantrums, Block Bloc Anarchists rioting, burning, beating Trump Supports unconscious and vote the Dems out
On the OTHER hand -
2018 is *also* a big gubernatorial year. If the Dems want to accomplish anything, they may need to look here for change.
Their bench is getting pretty shallow as of late.
DipStick
Keep Calm and Don't Care!
Also it's about 2020. If Trump is re-elected and Republicans gain more seats, the Democratic Party is done forever and the Republicans will have absolute power. Possibly enough to rewrite the Constitution.
Problem there is it's old people who are deciding our fate. We don't have a voice.
Problem there is it's old people who are deciding our fate. We don't have a voice.
DipStick
Keep Calm and Don't Care!
my vote doesn't count in PG County - 85 % voted for Hillary
suck it up buttercup
I'm not referring to the electoral college dipsheot.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Like what??? What could he possibly do, based on a public figure we've known for over 30 years, whose behavior is pretty much an open book, that would cause him political problems?
Using a White House intern as a humidor? :shrug:
Larry Gude
Strung Out
You say that as though it cost someone their job before. It didn't. :shrug:
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Point being that when you are HITLER, NAZI, FASCIST, SATAN, evil, gonna kill us all, in bed with Russia, Putin's bytch, in bed with Saudi, Egypt, corrupt, won't release your taxes, hate women, hate kids, gays, hate puppies, evil beyond words to make CERTAIN people undergo more back ground checks, you are the EOTWAWKI, what on earth could he possibly do?
This is the core problem with 'what next?' for what's left of Obama's party; when you've shot your wad, shot it all, and the guy hasn't done jack #### to be worried about, what then???
"Oh!!! NOW he's done it!!!" :shrug:
I believe it's a different situation this time. And I'm not talking about politicians, but the people on the street. The Dem voters left gave Clinton a pass because they loved him. They wouldn't give Trump a pass. I believe the people in the flyover states (Rep) that put Trump in the White House wouldn't put up with that crap no matter who did it.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
They're not giving his a pass now and it simply...does...not...matter. He just keeps on keeping on. The left is ripping itself apart and they're making it impossible for people who may be sympathetic to some concerns about Trump, maybe a nominee or two, maybe he's moving a little too fast, whatever, they're giving them absolutely NO chance of joining a mob of insane people losing their minds over ANYTHING the guy says or does. It leaves NOTHING left for a real problem let alone something like a transgression one might expect from the WORST MAN IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.
God help the left if Trump keeps on showing he's not a mad man. Once in a great while, the crazy guy screaming about some doom and gloom might be right. Most of the time, it's just some crazy guy screaming about HIS delusions.
I do believe I stated 'People in the Fly Over States .... I am not talking about the Seditious Black Bloc Anarchists
Larry Gude
Strung Out
WHY would his most ardent supporters give a crap??? I mean, what would it take? Banging the help? "Oh, that Donald. He is a randy boy..." Caught on a hot mic complaining about how dumb GOPer voters are??? We already went through that in the campaign.
Unless and until the left comes up with a sane, reasoned argument, he's got an WIDE open field. In the mean time, he seems to be doing pretty well. :shrug:
That's why I answered the way I didn't. I do believe there are some things the folks in the fly over states would run away from Trump on.
