Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking

tommyjo

New Member
From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/


A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily care about some of the controversies that the “mainstream media” treats as game-changing developments.

It’s an entirely reasonable theory. We live in a highly partisan epoch, and voters are usually loyal to politicians from their party. Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

Here is the really interesting paragraph:

The number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump has sharply risen since early in his term, meanwhile, from the mid-30s in early February to 44.1 percent as of Tuesday. In most surveys, Trump’s strongly disapprove rating exceeds his overall approval rating, in fact.

The number of people who strongly disapprove of Trump is larger than the total number of people who approve of Trump? Wow...that is pretty telling.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/




Here is the really interesting paragraph:



The number of people who strongly disapprove of Trump is larger than the total number of people who approve of Trump? Wow...that is pretty telling.

Three and a half months in - isn't "telling" anything. His overall approval ratings have been trending upward.
And I'm convinced a substantial portion of the anti-Trump crowd will not approve no matter what happens - they have insulated themselves inside an echo chamber where everything is opposed to Trump.
 

PsyOps

Pixelated
Ah, yes, those famous polls. The ones that were so accurate during the election.

:lol:

TJ lives on polls that support her thinking. If the polls reflected the other way, she would be deathly silent - probably kicking her poodle around out of anger.
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
This from the woman who laughs at the sources used here by regular forumites.

FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis

I looked at their staff. Are any of them over 30?

I had to look it up because I never heard of it before.
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron
I had to look it up because I never heard of it before.

I had never heard of it until the 2016 election, when the site was touted as an oracle and never wrong.

Then, of course, they were spectacularly wrong about Donald Trump.

A quick run through the Politics section of their site reveals almost exclusively negative opinion pieces about Trump. I think that tells you all you need to know.
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
I had never heard of it until the 2016 election, when the site was touted as an oracle and never wrong.

Then, of course, they were spectacularly wrong about Donald Trump.

A quick run through the Politics section of their site reveals almost exclusively negative opinion pieces about Trump. I think that tells you all you need to know.

It also explains why TJ frequents it.
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron
It also explains why TJ frequents it.

Garbage in, garbage out.

That's why these folks are convinced that Trump is the antichrist: because that's what they're being told by their media of choice and they don't want a second opinion or any kind of balanced reality.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
I had never heard of it until the 2016 election, when the site was touted as an oracle and never wrong.

I've gone to it for years - oddly enough, even though they were *CREATED* with regard to presidential elections (538 being the number of electors), they've made their mark with sports, which is how they're mostly reliable.

Their problem - among others - is, once they've made the call for a given state, they call it as a given. That is, they don't give an answer of "Hillary has XX% chance of winning this or that state". Once they've called it, they're closer to "she has a 100% chance of winning this or that state - it's in the bag". So if they were wrong on three or four states - PA, WI, MI and FL - they get the entire election wrong. And it was easy to get those wrong. Seriously, who here thought he really had a chance in WI or MI?
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
I've gone to it for years - oddly enough, even though they were *CREATED* with regard to presidential elections (538 being the number of electors), they've made their mark with sports, which is how they're mostly reliable.

Their problem - among others - is, once they've made the call for a given state, they call it as a given. That is, they don't give an answer of "Hillary has XX% chance of winning this or that state". Once they've called it, they're closer to "she has a 100% chance of winning this or that state - it's in the bag". So if they were wrong on three or four states - PA, WI, MI and FL - they get the entire election wrong. And it was easy to get those wrong. Seriously, who here thought he really had a chance in WI or MI?

If the Democrats had a real candidate instead of a legal leper he wouldn't have had a chance.

Leper=a person who is avoided or rejected by others for moral or social reasons.
 
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