Even When Progressives Lose, They Claim Victory

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
"Why the win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is still good for Democrats," CNN wrote (No, this is not The Onion, we swear).

Here's the crux of writer Harry Enten's point:

In a neutral environment, the margin should be much wider. President Donald Trump won the district by 21 percentage points in 2016 and Mitt Romney won it by 25 percentage points in 2012. Combining those outcomes and controlling for how well Democrats did nationally in each of those contests, we can say that Arizona 8 is 25 points more Republican than the nation. Lesko looks like she's going to do about 20 percentage points worse than that.

But let's dig a bit deeper into these claims buy the "experts." The New York Times reports that 173,708 votes were cast in all 143 precincts of the 8th Congressional District. But here's the thing: Special elections draw out far fewer voters than mid-terms or presidential elections. In 2016, nearly twice as many people -- 327,325 people -- voted in the 8th District than they did on Tuesday.

Now, these "experts" might be able to say that the enthusiasm was a bit higher on the Democratic side, because they turned out 82,318 Democrats (in 2016, 120,992 people voted for Hillary Clinton), whereas the Republicans turned out 91,390 Republicans (in 2016, 190,163 people voted for Donald Trump).



CNN Writes Most Hilarious Headline Ever: 'Why Win For Republicans In Arizona Still Good For Democrats'
 
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