RED WAVE? Poll Shows Republicans Could Pick Up 9 Senate Seats

[GURPS]

According to new Morning Consult polls, Democrats are in serious trouble in Senate races across the country. Republicans have serious leads in West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin trails by 14 points; North Dakota, where incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp trails by 8; Indiana, where incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly trails by 5; Missouri, where incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill trails by 5; Montana, where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester trails by 5; Florida, where incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is locked in a near-deadlock with Rick Scott; and Pennsylvania and Ohio, where incumbent Democrats Bill Casey and Sherrod Brown are leading by less than two points each, plus Virginia, where Tim Kaine leads by just 3 on the generic ballot. In the best-case scenario for Republicans, then, they could win up to nine additional Senate seats.

The polls are similarly shoddy in the House of Representatives for Democrats. The RealClearPolitics poll average for the generic ballot has Democrats up 6.7%, but the polls are all over the place: The Economist/YouGov has Democrats with a 3-point lead, Quinnipiac has Democrats with an 8-point lead, as does Monmouth.


RED WAVE? Poll Shows Republicans Could Pick Up 9 Senate Seats

 

[SamSpade]

Picking UP seats in a mid-term - the first mid-term - is fairly unusual for ANY President. Most of them lose, and it's a matter of how MUCH they lose.

This year has two things that are unusual - one, there are a lot more Democrats up for re-election that Republicans, and MANY are in typically red states, making them vulnerable.
HARD to believe that Manchin is in trouble, even in West Virginia - former governors as Senators tend to stay popular, and Manchin often votes with the GOP.
Arizona is not reliably Republican anymore, so Flake's seat may or may not stay. But the rest of the analysis - probably on.
Nevada MIGHT flip to the Democrats, but there's a good chance the GOP will pick up about half of the seats likely to flip.

That WOULD make the whole removing Trump from office kind of moot - you can impeach a President, but the Senate removes him - and with
a two-thirds vote. If the Dems seriously lose a lot of Senate seats, the whole impeach thing should quiet down - what's the point, if the vote still won't work?

Here's the other thing - the pattern for first year mid-term losses follows on the "coattails" thing - when a new party comes into power, if they win the White House
by a lot - there's a pattern of coattail riding in the House where Representatives who are in close contests often win with the party in the White House.
Almost always, that extra umph of votes disappears by the next election cycle. So a Republican or Democrat who won a House seat in a district that usually votes
the other way usually gets bumped back after two years.

BUT only if there are coattails to ride - if the person who gains the White House squeaks in, it's unlikely any district that was iffy went his way in the general election.
This explains why someone like George W Bush actually GAINED seats in his first mid-term.

On the other hand, Trump isn't winning over much of the country, in general. He may have sort of "negative" coattails - people voting against him in mid-terms.
I don't think the "wave" is all that much, and if Trump pulls off another big win or two, the "Blue Wave" might vanish.

I do think the Democrats have a slim chance - but better than 50% - of re-taking the House.
They have ZERO chance of taking the Senate. Zero.

 

[GURPS]

On the other hand, Trump isn't winning over much of the country, in general. He may have sort of "negative" coattails - people voting against him in mid-terms.
I don't think the "wave" is all that much, and if Trump pulls off another big win or two, the "Blue Wave" might vanish.

Contrary to Progressive Fantasy Polls .. Trump is no less Popular then he was when he was elected

D's Still Despise him
R's Still Support him

and Independents are in the dislike column as far as Polls go

I am not sure this really counts against Trump as in did they support him in the 1st place with votes ... my instinct tell me not so much

but then as I repeatedly point out these 'Trump Sucks' Polls are heavily over sampled to D's and I's

 

[Kyle]

I'm hoping the tantrum continues and develops into a full blown backlash.

It'd be nice to see democrats suspended along the road like a shoulder of the Appian Way.

 

[vraiblonde]

On the other hand, Trump isn't winning over much of the country, in general.

Why do you say that? Because I personally see an enormous swell of support for his policies and agenda. Not just my personal friends, but across social media as well. I'm somewhat amazed at the people I know to be Lefties who have jumped on board the Trump train.

If the media weren't constantly peddling these stupid stories and conjecturing out their ass to manipulate the half-wits, Trump would be the most popular president in history. He'd be like the Beatles.

 

[vraiblonde]

I'm hoping the tantrum continues and develops into a full blown backlash.

It'd be nice to see democrats suspended along the road like a shoulder of the Appian Way.

This is the reason I keep hearing from the ship jumpers: they are chilled and appalled at the way the Dems are going after our President, trying to negate our election and overthrow our government.

 

[Kyle]

This is the reason I keep hearing from the ship jumpers: they are chilled and appalled at the way the Dems are going after our President, trying to negate our election and overthrow our government.

All the rioting, burning, vile protests and attacks are what made a convert of my friend, the one you met when I moved, and his wife.

It also convinced him to buy an AR.

The marxists are making converts. ( Just not the ones they want )

 

[SamSpade]

If the media weren't constantly peddling these stupid stories and conjecturing out their ass to manipulate the half-wits, Trump would be the most popular president in history. He'd be like the Beatles.

The problem is - the half-wits vote. My son comes in from school telling me that Trump is a racist and all kinds of stuff.

He's special needs, so he barely knows who Trump IS. Just that he's bad (sixth grade).
That tells me he is hearing it at school, but probably not from teachers.

I don't see the change of support he will need to keep the House. This far out, an election is very hard to predict except in districts and states highly unlikely to change.
For instance, there's almost no chance a Republican will win the Senate seat in New Jersey.
But they do - and have, for a while - have a good chance to gain seats in the Senate.

 

[vraiblonde]

All the rioting, burning, vile protests and attacks are what made a convert of my friend, the one you met when I moved, and his wife.

Okay, THAT is a jaw dropper. My memory of them is that they were devoted liberals and Democrats.

 

[vraiblonde]

For instance, there's almost no chance a Republican will win the Senate seat in New Jersey.

And yet they had a two-term Republican Governor... And the second time, he smoked the Democrat's ass but good.

We'll see. I honestly didn't think Trump was going to win in 2016. I, like most people, thought for sure the fix was in for Hillary. And then.... Now Trump is still facing the same media excoriation, but he's had time to put his campaign promises into action, and we're also getting to see the vicious dogpile from the Left, including the biased lying media. So sure, people who are easily manipulated will vote against Trump no matter who his opponent is, but there are more aware and involved Americans than I thought there were. I'm pleasantly surprised by that and hereby apologize for my blanket sneering in the past.

 

[SamSpade]

And yet they had a two-term Republican Governor... And the second time, he smoked the Democrat's ass but good.

Who sadly, is very unpopular in New Jersey now, and the Democratic governor they have now smoked HIS opponent last fall.

We'll see. I honestly didn't think Trump was going to win in 2016. .

Oh me neither. I was shocked. So was the woman staying with my parents (I was at my parent's house that night, because my father was dying, and my mother was out of town).
Except she was for Hillary. I kept checking the polls and data, and watched states like Pennsylvania start to flip - NC safely in Trump territory - and watch with shock as Michigan and Wisconsin
flip, two states I never thought would - and then it looked like MINNESOTA might flip. So yeah - didn't expect it at all.

But he's been on an uphill battle since then. Typically a President is on his highest right after a win, and on inauguration day.
The media seemed determined to show that the country did not like him and that whole how big was the crowd thing was something all the networks had to quibble over to say
"See! See! He's not that popular!".

He's had to struggle to break 50% since.

 

[Rommey]

Arizona is not reliably Republican anymore, so Flake's seat may or may not stay. But the rest of the analysis - probably on.

Something else to consider: if McCain's seat becomes vacant before the General election, then both Arizona Senate seats would be up for grabs in the same election. That scenario could give a Dem a better chance of getting at least one of the seats.

 

[This_person]

Something else to consider: if McCain's seat becomes vacant before the General election, then both Arizona Senate seats would be up for grabs in the same election. That scenario could give a Dem a better chance of getting at least one of the seats.

I hope those two seats go Republican this time - they've been Dem for a while. Well, in practice, not name.

 

[GURPS]

If the media weren't constantly peddling these stupid stories and conjecturing out their ass to manipulate the half-wits ...

this every time someone posts a poll Trump's approval has fallen

 

[GURPS]

My son comes in from school telling me that Trump is a racist and all kinds of stuff.

my daughter [now 7th Grade] was coming home from school in 2016 saying some of her class mates / kids in other classes were crying Trump was going to Enslave the if he got elected

what kind of screwed up parent is telling there 4th. 5th or 6th grade child is a white guy is elected they are going to be made slaves again

 

[vraiblonde]

I hope those two seats go Republican this time - they've been Dem for a while. Well, in practice, not name.

I'll say it again:

John McCain, Lindsey Graham, etc, are the Republican leadership. If you do not agree with their agenda, YOU are the RINO.

 

[This_person]

I'll say it again:

John McCain, Lindsey Graham, etc, are the Republican leadership. If you do not agree with their agenda, YOU are the RINO.

I've stopped considering myself a Republican. I only consider myself a Constitutional conservative.

 

[Gilligan]

I've stopped considering myself a Republican. I only consider myself a Constitutional conservative.

Same here, pretty much. Gave up on the GOP completely back in '012...and was on my way out before that.