What voters most hate about politicians is their maddening refusal to keep – or even try to keep – their campaign promises. In this regard, Trump is a truly revolutionary force in politics, a veritable saint among demons. Given that, and the relative peace and prosperity Americans enjoy, how do we explain a presidential approval rating that remains mired in the low to mid-40s? Since Trump is the center of political gravity and leads the GOP, the question of how voters really view him is a major factor in the upcoming election.
Republicans should discount the polls – the picture heading into the 2018 elections is brighter than it seems. There are at least eight ways in which poll numbers are likely exaggerated against Trump – and thus Republicans in general:
1. Pollsters are asking the wrong question. Every polling firm aside from Rasmussen appears to ask this exact question: "Do you approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?" Clearly, "handling" is a loaded term in the context of Trump: there are millions of Americans who don't care for his "handling" of things – which largely speaks to demeanor and style – but are at the same time satisfied with his actual job performance and results. It's not clear exactly what question Rasmussen asks regarding Trump's job approval (an inquiry went unanswered), but Rasmussen reports its results in terms of "job performance."
2. Many firms produce consistently negative results, outside the norm, suggesting bias or a flawed approach. An analysis of the RCP polling data going back to Trump's inauguration shows that Quinnipiac polls consistently produce lower results than other polls taken around the same time. The same is true for CBS, IBD-TIPP; Gallup; and to a lesser extent CNN, CNBC, and Pew. Only Rasmussen consistently produces higher than average results. The questions that are asked, the ideological sample that is polled, and the order in which the questions are asked can all affect the results. And with the exceptions of Gallup and Rasmussen, who always poll exactly 1,500 people, polling samples from other firms always vary. That might facilitate tampering with the data, such as ending the polling after a particularly negative stretch of results.
3. Corporate media ignore Trump's successes and obsesses over issues that can be used to paint him in a bad light. A recent analysis of corporate media's labeling of Trump's emotional state shows the regular use of terms such as "angry" and "lashing out." Analysis has also shown that 93% of corporate media coverage of Trump's first 100 days was negative, and recent coverage has been 91% negative. Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd, and the corporate media know this, so they try to create the impression that most people are anti-Trump. The "Bradley/Wilder Effect" is almost certain to be in evidence in November: voters respond to polling based on the current ethos rather than their own self-interest, but their self-interest produces a different result in the voting booth.
In the last two days, I've seen two Trump bumper stickers, a rare sight. The radical left's violent tendencies have been on vivid display since Trump announced his candidacy, and that violence and vandalism is meant to intimidate Trump supporters. The resulting fear to make a small public statement of support such as posting a bumper sticker or a yard sign is surely an indication that polling results are also affected.
Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/art...d_be_as_high_as_60_percent.html#ixzz5SCsYxj8U
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Republicans should discount the polls – the picture heading into the 2018 elections is brighter than it seems. There are at least eight ways in which poll numbers are likely exaggerated against Trump – and thus Republicans in general:
1. Pollsters are asking the wrong question. Every polling firm aside from Rasmussen appears to ask this exact question: "Do you approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?" Clearly, "handling" is a loaded term in the context of Trump: there are millions of Americans who don't care for his "handling" of things – which largely speaks to demeanor and style – but are at the same time satisfied with his actual job performance and results. It's not clear exactly what question Rasmussen asks regarding Trump's job approval (an inquiry went unanswered), but Rasmussen reports its results in terms of "job performance."
2. Many firms produce consistently negative results, outside the norm, suggesting bias or a flawed approach. An analysis of the RCP polling data going back to Trump's inauguration shows that Quinnipiac polls consistently produce lower results than other polls taken around the same time. The same is true for CBS, IBD-TIPP; Gallup; and to a lesser extent CNN, CNBC, and Pew. Only Rasmussen consistently produces higher than average results. The questions that are asked, the ideological sample that is polled, and the order in which the questions are asked can all affect the results. And with the exceptions of Gallup and Rasmussen, who always poll exactly 1,500 people, polling samples from other firms always vary. That might facilitate tampering with the data, such as ending the polling after a particularly negative stretch of results.
3. Corporate media ignore Trump's successes and obsesses over issues that can be used to paint him in a bad light. A recent analysis of corporate media's labeling of Trump's emotional state shows the regular use of terms such as "angry" and "lashing out." Analysis has also shown that 93% of corporate media coverage of Trump's first 100 days was negative, and recent coverage has been 91% negative. Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd, and the corporate media know this, so they try to create the impression that most people are anti-Trump. The "Bradley/Wilder Effect" is almost certain to be in evidence in November: voters respond to polling based on the current ethos rather than their own self-interest, but their self-interest produces a different result in the voting booth.
In the last two days, I've seen two Trump bumper stickers, a rare sight. The radical left's violent tendencies have been on vivid display since Trump announced his candidacy, and that violence and vandalism is meant to intimidate Trump supporters. The resulting fear to make a small public statement of support such as posting a bumper sticker or a yard sign is surely an indication that polling results are also affected.
Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/art...d_be_as_high_as_60_percent.html#ixzz5SCsYxj8U
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
