I’m not sure about that, there’s a lot of I’m not voting for him,I’m voting against the other guy.
And Kennedy COULD pull off a Perot. DOUBTFUL. Perot at least had a message that appealed to people - get the economy moving, get rid of the deficit, stop the flow of jobs out of the country. He was a weird little guy, but he had a record of getting things done.
Kennedy's main appeal is - he's not Trump or Biden. But conservatives want to vote for Trump, and lefties want Biden, and unless Kennedy gets ENOUGH polling in his direction - the snap back will favor one of the two. If voters believe that one of the TWO will win, you will still get the "vote against the other guy".
There's also the thing about Trump running against Hillary - or Biden. And that is, no voter could tell you WHY they voted for the Democrat (except, with Hillary - because she was a woman. That's it). There was NEVER enthusiasm. I've never been to a Trump rally, but I know MANY who have. THAT is enthusiasm. Super Bowl level enthusiasm. You don't fill a stadium with people because they hate the OTHER guy.
I don't think Kennedy helped himself with this choice, unless he INTENDED to take away Biden voters, or he somehow thinks that independents lean left.