2020 Census: California, New York Lose One House Seat While Texas Gains Two

[GURPS]

The 2020 Census data confirm what we have known for a long time: A lot of people fled and continue to flee oppressive blue states like California, Illinois, and New York to freedom-loving states like Texas and Florida.

It is the first time California lost a seat since it became a state in 1850.

States that lost a seat:

• California
• Illinois
• Michigan
• New York
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• West Virginia

States that gained a seat:

• Colorado
• Florida
• Montana
• North Carolina
• Oregon
• Texas (two seats)

California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania voted for President Joe Biden.

Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas voted for former President Donald Trump.

insert thinking emoji

Democrats have the House majority, 218-212. The number does not include the five vacancies.

The shift in the Census could slim the Democratic majority even more or help the Republicans take over.

2020 Census: California, New York Lose One House Seat While Texas Gains Two

"The South grew 10.2%, more than twice the rate of the Northeast or the Midwest. U.S. growth fell from 9.7% in the previous decade."

legalinsurrection.com

 

[DaSDGuy]

People still have to vote

 

[SamSpade]

ON THE OTHER HAND -

The states get to re-draw the districts and if they have a Democratic legislative body - they will simply find a way to eliminate a district that elects a Republican. New York is already doing this. They lose a seat but to the Democratic Party which runs the state - a great big "meh".

 

[GURPS]

The states get to re-draw the districts and if they have a Democratic legislative body - they will simply find a way to eliminate a district that elects a Republican.

this is why the 2020 congressional elections were so important

 

[SamSpade]

this is why the 2020 congressional elections were so important

I'm thinking that despite the leftie bluster - a Republican House in 2022 is pretty much a given.
It is extremely unusual for the party that elects a new President to LOSE seats in the House.
Republicans made gains where no one thought they would to achieve the closest House minority in recent history.
Mid-terms almost always go against the party in the White House - and they just need to flip 5 seats.

 

[Clem72]

ON THE OTHER HAND -

The states get to re-draw the districts and if they have a Democratic legislative body - they will simply find a way to eliminate a district that elects a Republican. New York is already doing this. They lose a seat but to the Democratic Party which runs the state - a great big "meh".

Same could be said for the states gaining seats right? Or do we think Texas is above drawing districts as carefully as possible to avoid giving the new seats to Austin, Houston, or San Antonio?

 

[SamSpade]

Same could be said for the states gaining seats right? Or do we think Texas is above drawing districts as carefully as possible to avoid giving the new seats to Austin, Houston, or San Antonio?

I'm not making a political case here for either party - I'm just saying that reapportioning seven seats isn't going to yield hardly anything.
The only time it WOULD, would be in a state that has NO Republican seats - like Massachusetts for example.

Looking over the state legislatures and who is going to win or lose, it's going to be pretty close to a draw.
New York, California and Illinois are held by Democrats who will redraw as to not lose a Democrat.
Ohio is controlled by Republicans who will redraw as to not lose a Republican. West Virginia will lose a Republican.

Oregon and Colorado will add a Democrat; Montana, Florida and Texas will add four Republicans.
The others - I'm not so sure.

The GOP will gain - but not by a lot.

 

[vraiblonde]

The Republicans are all excited about this, but here's the thing:

Those relocated voters aren't necessarily conservatives who will vote accordingly. Those House seats the states pick up may very well go to Democrats. Do Texas and Florida really need more Democrat voters, messing up those states like they messed up the state they came from? I say no, no they don't.

Other flaws in this plan have already been pointed out, the takeaway being that I wouldn't get too excited about this if I were you.

 

[Clem72]

The Republicans are all excited about this, but here's the thing:

Those relocated voters aren't necessarily conservatives who will vote accordingly. Those House seats the states pick up may very well go to Democrats. Do Texas and Florida really need more Democrat voters, messing up those states like they messed up the state they came from? I say no, no they don't.

Other flaws in this plan have already been pointed out, the takeaway being that I wouldn't get too excited about this if I were you.

If they are transplants from California they are by-and-large going to districts that are already blue. Still seems like a win. You cant make Houston any more blue, but you may be able to get another R seat in the house...