Massive Shift in Urban Voting Helped Elect Trump
Trump saw gains nearly everywhere, but urban areas stand out because, without massive turnout in the big cities, Democrats can kiss their electoral prospects goodbye.
Big cities are where the elite tend to congregate, and the Democrat coalition has recently been characterized by an odd alliance between wealthy, overeducated and irrationally leftist elites and working-class minorities. Throw in public employee unions and Democrats could count on huge turnout in urban areas.
The turnout, while still large, is not quite so massive anymore as America's cities face a crisis in governance.
Trump most overperformed in large metro counties, according to analyst Jed Kolko. Compared with his run against Joe Biden, Trump ran 9 points closer to Kamala Harris in such areas—a bigger gain than he saw in suburbs, college towns, or military posts.
It wasn’t just a few cities, either. Trump improved on his 2020 performance in cities as diverse as Chicago, Detroit, and Dallas. He won Miami-Dade County outright. He got the closest margin for a Republican in New York City in 30 years. He won a precinct in lower Manhattan; one south Philadelphia neighborhood voted for him by almost three to one.
These swings are partly a byproduct of the surprising diversity of the Trump coalition, which exit polling suggests may have included a fifth of black men and a majority of Latino men. In New York City, Trump ran up votes not just on Staten Island, but in hyper-diverse Queens and South Brooklyn.