5 Reasons A Senate Trial Would Be A Nightmare For Democrats

[Yooper]

From The Federalist:

5 Reasons A Senate Trial Would Be A Nightmare For Democrats

If impeachment of President Trump occurs and a Senate trial happens, the GOP has the advantages. It could be a disaster for Democrats.

thefederalist.com

Not a sure thing for either side, but here's Marcus' take as to why this impeachment push may turn out to be, well, a nightmare for the Democrats. The entire article is worth reading (< 5 mins), but here are the closing two paragraphs:

So, is there a way out of this mess for Democrats? There may be. Over the weekend if you were very quiet and listened very carefully, a new word started emerging. That word is “censure.” Censuring, rather than impeaching, the president would allow Democrats to claim some measure of holding Trump accountable without the parade of horribles listed above. It might also deprive Trump of the ability to claim total exoneration.

But alas, it may be too late for that. Democrats promised their base blood, and blood will be had. But as in any good fight, once you level your best shot, the other guy gets to hit back.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[transporter]

1. Losing Control Of the Process

In the six weeks thus far of L’Affaire Ukraine, House Democrats have been in complete control of the process. They have chosen witnesses, whether testimony is in private or public, set the rules of questioning and the schedules. In all these areas, their hand has been firmly on the wheel. It is hard to overestimate what an incredible advantage this is.

The details, as always in a partisan biased opinion piece are questionable:

• Who has testified in public? Name one.
• The transcripts I have looked at gave Rs and Ds the same amount of time to question.

The general point, though is valid. Of course, an out of control Senate run trial will be a nightmare for the Rs...so this item is by no means a slam dunk positive for the Rs.

 

[transporter]

2. Oh Hi, Hunter Biden

Among the advantages the Democrats have had in the House inquiry is that of approving witnesses. Although they allowed Republicans to request witnesses, the authority to approve them is entirely Democrats’.

This came into play this weekend when the GOP requested Hunter Biden be brought in to testify about his knowledge of alleged corruption at the energy company Burisma, where he was making Mr. Burns money for Homer Simpson knowledge. That alleged corruption lies at the heart of the entire impeachment.

So just to point out the stunningly obvious....the impeachment isn't about Hunter Biden...the impeachment is about Trump's actions and determining if: 1. they were legal and 2. if they warrant removal from office.

But this deflection will be the go to tactic of Trump's R defenders...because he can't be defended on the actual quid pro quo allegations. This tactic will work well for the ignorati base.

 

[transporter]

3. Senators On The Trail

There are currently six Democratic senators running for president of the United States. Two of them, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, are polling in the top three of all candidates. The Iowa caucus in on February 3. So let’s be generous and say Santa gives Democrats Articles of Impeachment by Christmas, We would be looking at almost all of the month of January, at least, taken up with a Senate trial.

Huh...so just to point out the stunningly obvious....

All six of these people will be campaigning each and every day on national tv during the impeachment trial of a President that the majority of the country disapproves of. How exactly does that hurt them?

 

[transporter]

4. Republican Unity

During the Trump era, the time the GOP and conservatives in general have been most united and powerful was during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings....

The Senate will try to recreate this energy in much the same way. As they puncture the one-sided story crafted by House Democrats, look for Trump’s support to solidify, just as Kavanaugh’s did. There could be no better outcome for the president, who relies almost solely on his base for electoral success.

Trump's base isn't likely going to be enough for him to win an electoral college vote again. He isn't going to be going up against Hillary Clinton again. The majority of the country disapproves of him and an even larger majority believe the country is on the wrong track.

Ginning up the base is fine...but Rs are a smaller portion of the electorate than Ds and Is are larger than Ds or Rs.

 

[transporter]

5. The Odds Of Winning Are Not Good

Notwithstanding the televisual spectacle we will all be treated to this week during public testimony, the Democrats have already made their basic case to the American people and to Republicans in the Senate. The dream of a few short weeks ago, that cracks would emerge and suddenly senators would start turning on Trump, is now dissipating as dawn rises over an actual vote on impeachment.

No the odds are not good...but the "basic case" stuff is BS. Hearing people state they heard the President do inappropriate things is a whole different way to impact public opinion....

Oh and the odds of Nixon surviving were pretty good too.

 

[Kyle]

 

[vraiblonde]

The main reason a Senate trial would be a disaster for House Democrats is because they will at that point become irrelevant. Adam Schiff is a STAR right now, on all the shows, everyone kisses his ass. The second that vote is taken, pffft. Back in the bin he goes. Swalwell is all agog because the bot shows give him face time; the second that vote goes through he goes back to being "Who?"

Senators don't care about House members - they're considered lowly and elected by dummehs. Once they're no longer piddling around with this impeachment garbage they go back to anonymity and Senators will be the stars.

 

[herb749]

Huh...so just to point out the stunningly obvious....

All six of these people will be campaigning each and every day on national tv during the impeachment trial of a President that the majority of the country disapproves of. How exactly does that hurt them?

I think their Medicare for all cry will be cut off as not about the subject.

 

[herb749]

So just to point out the stunningly obvious....the impeachment isn't about Hunter Biden...the impeachment is about Trump's actions and determining if: 1. they were legal and 2. if they warrant removal from office.

But this deflection will be the go to tactic of Trump's R defenders...because he can't be defended on the actual quid pro quo allegations. This tactic will work well for the ignorati base.

The Joe Biden threat to Ukraine has to come up. He did the same thing that Trump's accused of. Can't a President investigate corruption.?

 

[Yooper]

Let's add this....



Re: Tweet 31.

Could it be that THIS is why the Dems don't want Ciaramella tied to the impeachment inquiry (remember, the impeachment inquiry is about Ukraine and Biden)? Because Ciaramella is AT THE HEART OF THE ENTIRE Ukraine-Biden imbroglio. Not just now (as a so-called "WB"), but then (back in 2016). If true, it makes his "WB" complaint more than a little self-serving. And it makes one wonder if Vindman told Ciaramella about the call in order to warn him that trouble was coming down the pike. As a result, Ciaramella launches the complaint because the best defense is a good offense, right?

Take a look at the entire thread. Dense, complex, but also riveting.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[stgislander]

The Joe Biden threat to Ukraine has to come up. He did the same thing that Trump's accused of. Can't a President investigate corruption.?

Not if he's a "political opponent" according to the Dems.

 

[Gilligan]

Not if he's a "political opponent" according to the Dems.

Joe is going to beat Donald like a drum.



He's said so hisself about a hundred times.

 

[Kyle]

Joe is going to beat Donald like a drum.
He's said so hisself about a hundred times.

... just like he did to Bran Flake!