About those Trillions in derivatives ......

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

It appears raising interest rates aren't just bad for the regular folk. I'm betting that most of these companies are the so called ghost companies with fictitious or overzealous valuations. Or of the many over leveraged companies.

The wheels on the car spin round and round, round and round, round and round, the wheels on the car spin round and round .... until it goes pop and flat.

 

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

In addition to derivatives .....

The big thing to watch is what is happening now between Saudi Arabia and China. China has already signed a Strategic Partnership agreement with the Saudis today, but tomorrow, is going to be big announcement of buying oil in yuan, and the real likelihood of the Saudis being accepted into BRICS by the first of the year. That, on top of everything else that is wrong with America, will send the dollar and the American economy diving into the toilet and through the sewer pipe. All the projections of a major recession/depression will come true for 2023, because it will set the stage for all other countries to sell off their U.S. notes and dump their dollar holdings. With a national debt over $31 trillion, there is no way the U.S. will ever recover. There is nothing the U.S. can do about it, short of giving up some real estate to other countries. It's best that Americans learn Mandrin, if they want to survive at all. When all those $31 trillions of U.S. dollars are repatriated via other countries dumping their reserve dollars and Treasury holdings and other assets denominated in U.S. dollars, lookout; Inflation? No one has seen, here, what hyper-inflation looks, or feels, like. It will be a catastrophic economic life forever changing ending event.

We are in the early stages of the biggest depression ever. Prepare accordingly.

 

[Gilligan]

Hmmm...

 

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

And ..... so it begins. The continued downfall of the U.S. dollar. How many other countries soon to follow suit? Total dumping of U.S. dollar reserves being repatriated coming soon. How soon? No crystal ball here. But I'd say within 5 to <10 years, beginning now.

China’s Xi Jinping Pledges More Energy Deals With Gulf Producers

Chinese leader Xi Jinping used the last day of a visit to Saudi Arabia to promise to buy more Gulf crude and start paying for some of it with the Chinese currency, the yuan.

www.wsj.com

And for those that think the Chinese Yuan won't be getting stronger, more favored in use by other countries, remember, China has the largest manufacturing capacity in the world and exports to nearly every country in the world. The U.S.? Manufactures/produces nothing the world wants or needs anymore; outside armaments, bullets, rockets, and military aircraft.

Sure, we might have our military to politely, with force, or threat of force, tell other countries to continue using the U.S. dollar, but when other countries start banding together, standing against using a value losing dollar from a bully, thinking of their own self-interests and that of their people, then we are in heap big trouble. The nations of the world, and their leaders, are getting tired of the currency games, and the meddling in the affairs of other countries, the U.S. is playing. As well as hating the forcing of, and in your face degeneracy we keep trying to export.

The writing is clearly on the wall. And as I said before ..... "We are in the early stages of the biggest depression ever. Prepare accordingly."


Ohh ohhhh. I wonder if these two world leaders will be killed off like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi were when they started to sell, tried to sell, their oil in other than U.S. dollars? I'm thinking not. Unless we really really want WW3 to start.

Isn't geopolitics fun boys and girls?

 

[HemiHauler]

What you are missing here is that the reason that oil is denominated in USD is because we maintain a trade deficit, thus ensuing USD are pervasive (this is a large reason for Bretton Woods). For a petro-yuan, China would have to run a trade deficit, which they do not want. Could China purchase *some* oil in yuan, rice, cheap consumer plastics? Sure. But not to fuel their entire nation, as KSA/other Gulf States can only use so much of that stuff.

See the Triffin Dilemma for more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

I'm not concerned in the least.

 

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

What you are missing here is that the reason that oil is denominated in USD is because we maintain a trade deficit, thus ensuing USD are pervasive (this is a large reason for Bretton Woods). For a petro-yuan, China would have to run a trade deficit, which they do not want. Could China purchase *some* oil in yuan, rice, cheap consumer plastics? Sure. But not to fuel their entire nation, as KSA/other Gulf States can only use so much of that stuff.

See the Triffin Dilemma for more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

I'm not concerned in the least.

Nope. Not missing anything.

Actually, after Nixon ended the Bretton Woods agreement, in 1971, severing the dollar peg with gold, with the stroke of his pen, he had to neutralize crude oil as an economic weapon and found a way to persuade the hostile kingdom of Saudi Arabia to finance America’s widening deficit with its newfound petrodollar wealth. The basic framework was simple. The US would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide Saudi Arabia military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plough billions of their petrodollar revenue, secretly, back into U.S. Treasuries and finance America’s spending. With other countries, nor finance economists, in general, nary the wiser. Of course, this forced other countries to maintain U.S. dollar reserves since oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia only took U.S. dollars in trade.

That arrangement is now coming to an end due to the hubris of the U.S..

 

[HemiHauler]

For your consideration ...



Nope. Not missing anything.

Actually, after Nixon ended the Bretton Woods agreement, in 1971, severing the dollar peg with gold, with the stroke of his pen, he had to neutralize crude oil as an economic weapon and found a way to persuade the hostile kingdom of Saudi Arabia to finance America’s widening deficit with its newfound petrodollar wealth. The basic framework was simple. The US would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide Saudi Arabia military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plough billions of their petrodollar revenue, secretly, back into U.S. Treasuries and finance America’s spending. With other countries, nor finance economists, in general, nary the wiser. Of course, this forced other countries to maintain U.S. dollar reserves since oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia only took U.S. dollars in trade.

That arrangement is now coming to an end due to the hubris of the U.S..

My statement isn’t incompatible with all of this being true - and I do not disagree with anything you’ve written here.

The truth is that no currency can replace the US dollar as global petro-currency WITHOUT simultaneously running a trade deficit.

There could be a rare exception here and there, the the US has been running a trade deficit since Bretton Woods. China runs a surplus and will likely always run a surplus.

 

[PeoplesElbow]

We are in the early stages of the biggest depression ever. Prepare accordingly.

My problem with statements like these is the folks that make them are never held accountable for being wrong or will admit they are wrong. They will just claim it hasn't happened.....yet. how many times did Harold Camping predict the rapture only to say there was some new data to calculate. In 20 years if it hasn't happened yet you will still claim we are in the early stages.

 

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

My problem with statements like these is the folks that make them are never held accountable for being wrong or will admit they are wrong. They will just claim it hasn't happened.....yet. how many times did Harold Camping predict the rapture only to say there was some new data to calculate. In 20 years if it hasn't happened yet you will still claim we are in the early stages.

Held accountable for an opinion? Could I, and others be wrong? Sure. But taking the totality of information currently available, a depression, or economic crash is definitely on the horizon.

These things do not happen within an immediate timeline. The progression towards a depression does take time. Of course we could be in a depression right now, and most likely are, and no one would know it from the "positive" gaslighting economic news we are getting. They are programming into people a perception that everything is fine, but with a few bumps. When in actuality, the destruction is being hid from us. Everyone can personally observe what is happening. Prices sky rocketing. The FED is, (and congress knows), already pushing to make unemployment increase to 7.5% next year, or higher, by increasing interest rates. So what happens when more people are laid off? Less spending = less economic activity = depression. If consumer spending, which comprises 70% of GDP, and unemployment increases, then consumer spending, the largest driver of our economy, will drastically decline. Stock prices will collapse due to the lack of consumer spending.

 

[Merlin99]

For your consideration ...



Held accountable for an opinion? Could I, and others be wrong? Sure. But taking the totality of information currently available, a depression, or economic crash is definitely on the horizon.

These things do not happen within an immediate timeline. The progression towards a depression does take time. Of course we could be in a depression right now, and most likely are, and no one would know it from the "positive" gaslighting economic news we are getting. They are programming into people a perception that everything is fine, but with a few bumps. When in actuality, the destruction is being hid from us. Everyone can personally observe what is happening. Prices sky rocketing. The FED is, (and congress knows), already pushing to make unemployment increase to 7.5% next year, or higher, by increasing interest rates. So what happens when more people are laid off? Less spending = less economic activity = depression. If consumer spending, which comprises 70% of GDP, and unemployment increases, then consumer spending, the largest driver of our economy, will drastically decline. Stock prices will collapse due to the lack of consumer spending.

You don't state it as an opinion, if it was it would be prefaced with something like "I think" or "we could be".

 

[LightRoasted]

For your consideration ...

You don't state it as an opinion, if it was it would be prefaced with something like "I think" or "we could be".

Hence why I changed by heading to, "For your consideration" ... Just throwing out my, (more or less educated), opinions every time I post. Which tend to be on the financially conservative side. To give people pause to critically think of what is happening so they may heed the information and take any necessary steps to protect themselves. It is not all rainbows and unicorns out in the real world and people should wake up is all.

But hey. Look at the market today. I'd say we are well on our way an economic crisis. Jobless claims and retail leading the downfall.