Another Pollster Sees a Trump Win

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. “There is definitely a submerged Trump vote,” Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: “I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.”


 

Kyle

Having a Beer while the world burns!
PREMO Member
I'm going to need this to be such a big win that they call it on election night. Currently the Dem criminals are like, "Oh, we may not know for weeks - MONTHS! - who won the election...."

Yeah, screw that.
They're afraid it'll take them that long to manufacture the "Discovered ballots" with Bidens name on them.
 

gunsmoke

Active Member
538 gives Trafalgar Group a C/D rating. Bot, can't you find anyone with any credibility????

This GOP pollster got 2016 right, but its claim of 'shy' Trump voters is looking off-base for 2020

Trafalgar gained notice after the 2016 elections for being one of the few pollsters to predict that Donald Trump would win the key swing states that proved crucial to his Electoral College victory, including Michigan. The outfit's founder, Robert Cahaly, argued he was able to do so by accounting for so-called "shy" Trump voters—those who, due to an alleged "social desirability bias," are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support Donald Trump.

However, Trafalgar's approach didn't fare all that well two years later. In the dozen polls the firm made public in the last two weeks before the 2018 midterms, nine were too favorable to the GOP, including one that predicted Republican Brian Kemp would win the Georgia governor's race by 12 points (he prevailed by just 1 point). On average, Trafalgar missed by 5 points and outright called three races incorrectly, including the contests for Senate in Arizona and both Senate and governor in Nevada.

Cahaly is nonetheless sticking to his thesis, even though every serious analysis has rejected the notion that these supposedly "shy" Trump voters actually exist.
 

WingsOfGold

Well-Known Member
I'm going to need this to be such a big win that they call it on election night. Currently the Dem criminals are like, "Oh, we may not know for weeks - MONTHS! - who won the election...."

Yeah, screw that.
Should it go to the SC because of shady write ins I'd LOVE to see Barrett put the final nail in the coffin. Should Trump get in Thomas need retire and more young blood fill his seat.
 

Louise

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Depends if it's big enough for Screwmer, Shitt and SanFranNan. :)
God bless the USA. I have had an ear worm for the last week now, because I grew up in the ‘60’s. It still fits all these years later. Here ya go...

 
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