Automakers Cave To Biden’s Electric Car Dreams, And Ignore Their Own Customers

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
So what are car makers going to do if consumers continue to turn their noses up at the fancy new battery-powered cars they are churning out? What will GM or Honda do if they have no gas-powered cars to fall back on? How will these companies justify their massive investments in plug-in research and development?

Simple. Automakers will become the biggest, fiercest, and most relentless lobbyists for electric car mandates. If consumers continue to flock to the remaining gas-powered cars available to them, the only way to stop such “misbehavior” would be to have the government outlaw the sale of such cars.

In other words, you will have private industry teaming up with big government to dictate to consumers what they can and can’t buy.

What is that system of government called again? Oh, right, national socialism, aka, fascism.

 

glhs837

Power with Control
Not really rejection, not not being adopted to to lack of compelling products. If you make an attractive electric car with sufficient range, people will buy them. Of course, doing that while making money, that's the trick. Only one company actually selling EVs at a profit right now. GM loses thousands on every Bolt. And keeping one in four customers, thats a margin almost any product would love to have, I think.
 

Sneakers

Just sneakin' around....
There are some things that electric just can't compete with. Like hauling a house trailer cross-country. If there is no alternative to electric, entire industries will fold.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
What green dreams are made of. You want to push "eco-friendly" lithium then I'll keep investing in lithium and rare earth mining.
View attachment 156801

Except that's not really a lithium mine. Its BHPs Econdida copper mine. Funny thing is, that it looks like Rio Tinto has found commercially viable amounts of lithium in 100 years of tailings from an existing mine. That should keep things moving right along for a while. And there are other methods that look promising as well.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
There are some things that electric just can't compete with. Like hauling a house trailer cross-country. If there is no alternative to electric, entire industries will fold.
Thats true for now. But nobody should expect some instant transition, and I agree that govt sticking its nose in isnt the way to go. That said, the charging issue isnt as big a deal as it's made out to be. For most, note I said most, not all, it's simply a matter of charging at home for virtually all charging needs. Apartments and condos, they will need to add charging, but that will come as the need increases. The great majority of commuters do not travel enough in a day to ever worry about public charging.
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Thats true for now. But nobody should expect some instant transition, and I agree that govt sticking its nose in isnt the way to go. That said, the charging issue isnt as big a deal as it's made out to be. For most, note I said most, not all, it's simply a matter of charging at home for virtually all charging needs. Apartments and condos, they will need to add charging, but that will come as the need increases. The great majority of commuters do not travel enough in a day to ever worry about public charging.
The only thing I can think of to justify govt involvement is for it to work with manufacturers to produce a charging standard. (But then I know very little about EV's so maybe it already has.)
 

Sneakers

Just sneakin' around....
That said, the charging issue isnt as big a deal as it's made out to be.
I tend to agree with that. There's lots of talk about the infrastructure not being able to support the increase in charging, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as it's made out to be. Charging doesn't require huge amounts of high power, but rather low to moderate. And think about not so many years ago when no one had a/c or a house full of electric stuff or a million devices to be charged. The power delivery system really hasn't been upgraded for years but the current load far exceeds what it was just 20 years ago. Same thing is happening now.

I was thinking more in terms of the energy required to tow, and what kind of range you'd get with a limited battery supply. Having to stop every hundred or so miles makes a reasonable trip unreasonable. Unless there is a major new development in battery storage, there will still be a need for gas/diesel vehicles.

I know there is a 'fleet' of experimental long distance electric haulers being tested. Haven't seen any real world results recently.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
The only thing I can think of to justify govt involvement is for it to work with manufacturers to produce a charging standard. (But then I know very little about EV's so maybe it already has.)

Has not, although one standard is required in Europe. But, at least for Tesla, they can use anyones since they deliver with adapters. But since they by far the most comprehensive system, it's not a big deal. I sort of like letting the market sort it out.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
I tend to agree with that. There's lots of talk about the infrastructure not being able to support the increase in charging, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as it's made out to be. Charging doesn't require huge amounts of high power, but rather low to moderate.

I was thinking more in terms of the energy required to tow, and what kind of range you'd get with a limited battery supply. Having to stop every hundred or so miles makes a reasonable trip unreasonable. Unless there is a major new development in battery storage, there will still be a need for gas/diesel vehicles.

I know there is a 'fleet' of experimental long distance electric haulers being tested. Haven't seen any real world results recently.
You do need a good sized battery to tow, the Tesla Semi is set to deliver to a few early customers this fall. But in that sense this is an easier use case than consumers. Most places you are going to pick up from or deliver to already have good electrical so adding charging while loading/unloading works well, and there are tons of routes that fit within the 500 mile loaded range. When you remove fueling time and a huge amount of maint cost, that fleet truck metric looks really good. We'll see how it works for civilians once the battery trucks arrive. Rivian, we'll see, they are not really setting themselves up for the towing crowd. Cybertruck, not the big rigs crowd, but the tri-motor has a 14,000 tow rating. The base has 7,000lbs. Range at those loads? No telling, since it will be using a new cell chemistry and pack architecture. Not to mention a novel structure for the rest of the vehicle. Lordstowne is looking at fleet operators, not much towing requirements there, I dont think.

Nobody yet trying for the fith wheel F-35o crowd.



The cost to put in power lines and new infrastructure to supply the electrical needs of 276 Million vehicles, plus an all electric home or apartment for 332 Million Americans and God only knows how many illegals is going to be pretty staggering.
Good thing that doesnt have to happen overnight. Thats the benefit of the slow adoption. Nobody expects us to take 276 million gas cars off the streets and replace with EVs. No thinking person anyway. 1% now, 5% in a few years, 15% maybe 10 years from now.
 

Sneakers

Just sneakin' around....
Good thing that doesnt have to happen overnight. Thats the benefit of the slow adoption. Nobody expects us to take 276 million gas cars off the streets and replace with EVs. No thinking person anyway. 1% now, 5% in a few years, 15% maybe 10 years from now.
^that. The infrastructure will be able to keep up over time.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Not really rejection, not not being adopted to to lack of compelling products. If you make an attractive electric car with sufficient range, people will buy them. Of course, doing that while making money, that's the trick. Only one company actually selling EVs at a profit right now. GM loses thousands on every Bolt. And keeping one in four customers, thats a margin almost any product would love to have, I think.
FYI Tesla only makes profits from selling green energy credits, cars do not make them money. That is also why they put money into Bitcoin.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
FYI Tesla only makes profits from selling green energy credits, cars do not make them money. That is also why they put money into Bitcoin.
Oh, they make a profit on every car they sell, hefty BMW/Mercedes type margins even. But they are also investing that profit back into growth. They could slow growth (like not be building out two new and expanding one factory and developing new methods and materials) and show profit just from car sales. But why do that when your competitors are willing to throw wads of cash at you to help fund your growth? You can show a profit and still be spending like crazy on growth. They would be foolish to not take advantage of that.



.

Tesla said automotive gross margins in the third quarter were 27.7%, up from 25.4% in the previous quarter and 22.8% in the third quarter of 2019. That metric is a key measure of an automaker’s sustainable profitability, and it shows that Tesla has made steady progress in bringing down production costs per car.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Oh, they make a profit on every car they sell, hefty BMW/Mercedes type margins even. But they are also investing that profit back into growth. They could slow growth (like not be building out two new and expanding one factory and developing new methods and materials) and show profit just from car sales. But why do that when your competitors are willing to throw wads of cash at you to help fund your growth? You can show a profit and still be spending like crazy on growth. They would be foolish to not take advantage of that.



.
From the same source

 

glhs837

Power with Control
From the same source

Key line...

has probably peaked, and will begin a long slide before pretty much vanishing in a few years.
And that's okay, seeing as in the next 12 months, they will have increased capacity at Shanghai and maybe Fremont (they have applied to add another sprung structure "tent") and finished construction and begun production at two entirely new factories, one of which will introduce a new model. Inside to 18 months they should also have competed construction of and begun production in three battery factories co-located with Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. So before those credits dry up, they will have a lot more production capacity, and be selling models in Europe and Asia that are not subject to import taxes, increasing margins even with price reductions to be more competitive. Most likley wont stop the high CAPEX, as they are talking about a factory in India, and maybe South America. But those increases in production should drive higher efficiency and higher margins. So as the "free" money dries up, they should be making enough earned money that the numbers remain the same.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Key line...



And that's okay, seeing as in the next 12 months, they will have increased capacity at Shanghai and maybe Fremont (they have applied to add another sprung structure "tent") and finished construction and begun production at two entirely new factories, one of which will introduce a new model. Inside to 18 months they should also have competed construction of and begun production in three battery factories co-located with Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. So before those credits dry up, they will have a lot more production capacity, and be selling models in Europe and Asia that are not subject to import taxes, increasing margins even with price reductions to be more competitive. Most likley wont stop the high CAPEX, as they are talking about a factory in India, and maybe South America. But those increases in production should drive higher efficiency and higher margins. So as the "free" money dries up, they should be making enough earned money that the numbers remain the same.
That is really some Obama level hoping for a green market.

As Toyota and Ford ramp up alternatives I am seeing a lot of "I'm done with Tesla" sentiment. Toyotas plug in hybrids are starting to steal market share. A plug in minivan that soccer mom's don't have to think about charging if they don't want to is going to be a huge hit to Tesla's bottom line.

 

glhs837

Power with Control
That is really some Obama level hoping for a green market.

As Toyota and Ford ramp up alternatives I am seeing a lot of "I'm done with Tesla" sentiment. Toyotas plug in hybrids are starting to steal market share. A plug in minivan that soccer mom's don't have to think about charging if they don't want to is going to be a huge hit to Tesla's bottom line.
We'll see. People keep buying. Not sure folks are cross shopping minivans with even Model Ys though. But maybe they are. I know I see more Mdels 3 and Model Ys every month even down here.
 
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