Blue Wave? New Midterm Projection Shows Republicans Holding the Senate

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
To be fair, these two outcomes aren't mutually exclusive, to a certain extent. A decent sized Democratic wave could crash down on Republicans, sweeping out their House majority and a number of governors, and the GOP could still hold their upper chamber majority -- thanks to an astoundingly favorable 2018 map. That map is a double-edged sword for Mitch McConnell and company, however: If it were less slanted in their favor this cycle, they could easily lose their majority in a tough cycle. A fortunate break. On the other hand, if they were looking at the exact same map under better political conditions, they could realistically be expected to make major gains, perhaps in the ballpark of half a dozen seats. A wasted opportunity. But 2018 is what it is, and baking in all of the various and competing factors one respected prognosticator's new analysis predicts that Republicans will retain their Senate majority:

Democrats have a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Senate majority this November, according to FiveThirtyEight’s just-launched 2018 Senate forecast. Republicans have a 2-in-3 chance of keeping control. Unlike in the race for the House of Representatives, in which Democrats are favored, they’re fighting uphill in the upper chamber. The FiveThirtyEight Senate model produces probabilistic forecasts, as opposed to hard-and-fast predictions about who will win or lose, using a statistical model that looks at polls of each race, fundraising, how each state has voted historically and more.

[TWITTER]https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1039860381878050816[/TWITTER]

The 'check on the president' question is interesting, in that it feeds into the intensity advantage Democrats enjoy. In certain wave years, polls end up missing the degree to which turnout disparities turn unlikely scenarios into realities -- which is why Republicans should absolutely not rest assured that the Senate will stay in their hands after the fall. That said, whip-sharp political writer Josh Kraushaar surveys the landscape and concurs with the FiveThirtyEight verdict, building the case that GOP Senate gains might be the likeliest outcome, based on the data at this stage:

The odds [of a Democratic Senate takeover] aren’t any better now than they were several months ago. Republicans have made progress in several key states (North Dakota, Missouri, Arizona) even as they’ve suffered setbacks in others (West Virginia, Indiana, Montana). All told, it’s looking most likely that the Senate will remain closely divided, with Republicans holding their narrow advantage past 2018. Republicans will blow a historic chance at picking up many seats, given the uniquely favorable Senate map, while Democrats are still struggling to ensure that all their vulnerable red-state senators return to Congress despite a favorable national environment. Here’s the Senate math: If Republicans can defeat two of the six vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection, they’ve locked down their majority for another cycle. Strategists from both parties agree that Republicans have pulled ahead in North Dakota, where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is facing a spirited challenge from Rep. Kevin Cramer. Public polls show Missouri's and Florida’s contests as pure toss-ups, while Indiana remains highly competitive.



Blue Wave? New Midterm Projection Shows Republicans Holding the Senate
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
A year ago, I would have said there was ZERO chance of them losing the Senate.

I still think it's low - but I would have bet good money that Tester, Manchin and Donnelly were sure fire losers, and that Tennessee wouldn't even be CLOSE.

As it stands, the best bet is the GOP will GAIN one seat. Keeping any sort of lead in the Senate pretty much ends the likelihood of impeachment,
no matter what the charge - there's no point in doing it if it can't succeed in removal.

If I'm concerned about anything, it's that the Dems will go full metal socialist - and get elected in places.
Even if elected, I think they'll lose eventually, but they can cause a lot of damage.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
If I'm concerned about anything, it's that the Dems will go full metal socialist - and get elected in places.
Even if elected, I think they'll lose eventually, but they can cause a lot of damage.
California is already going FULL Socialist
 
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