CDR Salamander: "How Things Can Get Real Stupid Real Fast"

[Yooper]

An excellent blog post about the complexity of "things"; about the difficulty of parsing/sorting "branches & sequels" (< 10 mins for a thorough reading; to include linked article in the blog post):

How Things Can Get Real Stupid Real Fast

It is helpful to keep in mind that as difficult as it is to understand why your neighbors and family members make the decisions they do in...

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

The ‘ole planner in me can’t help but take strange little articles in open source and play them out four more turns – about three different ways, flipping one or the other assumption/variable to see where they can lead. From Most Likely COA [Course of Action] to most Dangerous COA – the exercise can be … a bit maddening.

I don’t think the time is quite ripe for China to make its military statement on the global stage, but there is a non-zero chance that smart Chinese planners are doing the math right now on what a tottering former empire a bit over extended and with few friends might provide to a nation looking to make a point.

Weakness is not a good play for Britain right now. I really hope her European friends start to back her play, but I have my doubts.

Pause to let it all soak in. Though the post is specifically about Iran's recent request to China for support in the Persian Gulf, you will probably also realize it's an excellent commentary about the dangers of seeing things too simplistically; in too binary a manner.

Problems exist in various shades of gray; players change and players change goals and approaches as they enter and exit the game. Even the games change as opposing forces seek advantage. To claim otherwise is juvenile and disingenuous. It's been my experience (personal and professional) that where human beings are involved it's often the counter-intuitive solution that works best. Of course, this assumes one has the courage to venture out of one's comfort zone.

--- End of line (MCP)