Corona Death Predictions Flashback

TPD

TPD

the poor dad
This was the story from June 16th with chinese death predictions:

IHME Projects

U.S. coronavirus deaths could surpass 200,000 by the beginning of October, as infections have spiked in parts of the country while numbers dropped in Europe, according to a report on Monday.
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That part was right - we have surpassed 200k by October.

The institute said Florida would be among the hardest-hit states, with a projected 18,675 deaths, after it saw 2,000 new coronavirus cases for two straight days over the weekend
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Looks like that part will be wrong - as of today, Sept 27th, Florida is reporting 14,032 deaths. I don't think they will have more then 4000 deaths in the next 4 days, but I have been wrong before.

Arizona's fatalities were upped by 56 percent from 4,762 to 7,415, the news organization
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That prediction also appears to be wrong - as of today, Arizona is reporting 5,623 deaths. 1800 more by Oct 1? I doubt it.

Deaths in California were raised by 72 percent from 8,812 to 15,155,
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Looks like California is the only winner in these predictions - 15,532 deaths as of Sept 26th.


You can conclude what you want. All I know is that Florida is open for business and California is not.
 
Hijinx

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
When you have people working on statistics to try to explain why we ruined the economy with nothing more than a bad flu it's hard to get a good figure as to how many died.

Personally I don't trust any of the figures they have put out we went thru the whole Corona season without anyone catching a common cold.
 
G

gunsmoke

Active Member
TPD said:
This was the story from June 16th with chinese death predictions:

IHME Projects

You can conclude what you want. All I know is that Florida is open for business and California is not.
Click to expand...

You understand how these things work, right? (no why would you?)

They basically take the current death rates multiply them by a the number of days till some random date in time to get an expected total deaths at the random date in time.

So the forecasts are just snapshots in time based on current events...you understand this right? And that, as events change, the forecast changes?

Its like weather forecasting or political polling. Are you really dumb enough to think this is an exact science??? (yeah, based on previous comments, you are.)
 
GURPS

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
gunsmoke said:
So the forecasts are just snapshots in time based on current events...you understand this right? And that, as events change, the forecast changes?
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yep wildly OVER INFLATED ...... it is time to take off the mask
 
Gilligan

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
gunsmoke said:
You understand how these things work, right? (no why would you?)

They basically take the current death rates multiply them by a the number of days till some random date in time to get an expected total deaths at the random date in time.

So the forecasts are just snapshots in time based on current events...you understand this right? And that, as events change, the forecast changes?

Its like weather forecasting or political polling. Are you really dumb enough to think this is an exact science??? (yeah, based on previous comments, you are.)
Click to expand...

Gee. You sure are smart.
 
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Hijinx

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
Well happily November 3rd. is coming up and after the election the Corona will disappear.
 
Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
...to think this is an exact science???
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Wasn't this what our medical experts and certain political leaders said, though, to "trust the science"? That these same medical experts and certain political leaders demanded Trump "follow the science" because it was so "exact"?

Didn't the Imperial College London Model followed by the IMHE model essentially crash the world economy because they claimed to be so exact in their forecasting?

Sorry, but ain't playing this is an inexact science this modeling stuff. Why? Because these folks ensured us that the models were meticulous and therefore would be spot-on. They weren't in either case; in fact, their predictive ability may have been worse than weather forecasting.

Bottom line, as far as I'm concerned, much of the scientific establishment and certain of our political leaders blew it. Trust is a hard thing to earn back; it will be years before I grant these folks the level of trust I gave them in the early days of COVID-19. I thought they had our best interests at heart; instead, what we've found out is that this was all about the politics.

--- End of line (MCP)
 
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