FromTexas
This Space for Rent
So, a brand new statistical tool is going to predict housing prices for you.
Moody's is in the financial analysis business. This is a new tool for them to market. It does not have a proven track record yet to show it works. You have to take their word for it they have found the magical inputs to get the right output. It is just like the many other "economic" tools that have been developed over the years. Some turn out to have predictive value (minor usually) and many have turned out to be duds. They could be right, but if anybody, including Moody's, could have predicted the direction of the markets and other economic activities with any major accuracy, they would be the only source for how to invest, etc... So, take it for what its worth. They are a good name, but its still just a way to guess at the future. And, if you really pay attention, they are just assiging a degree of risk.
F
Fallen
Guest
Thats a good question. I copied the title right from the article.FromTexas said:How do you reconcile hardest hit and 14 on the list?
F
Fallen
Guest
So, if I can miraculously find a house for 200k once the market goes down, I should buy it because in 5 years it will be worth 400k? I think we are moving to VA, it'd be nice if we bought a house out there and the market went insane like it did here but I doubt ititsbob said:
itsbob
I bowl overhand
Around here, you bet it will go insane again, just give it time.Fallen said:So, if I can miraculously find a house for 200k once the market goes down, I should buy it because in 5 years it will be worth 400k? I think we are moving to VA, it'd be nice if we bought a house out there and the market went insane like it did here but I doubt it
Bluepeapod
New Member
Fallen said:So, if I can miraculously find a house for 200k once the market goes down, I should buy it because in 5 years it will be worth 400k? I think we are moving to VA, it'd be nice if we bought a house out there and the market went insane like it did here but I doubt it
We just moved here August 2005 b/c we couldn't even THINK about affording a house in 2006. The ppl we bought our house from bought it 10 years ago at $115K and sold it to us for $290K. When we got this one, it was the 4th one we had put a contract on before we won one! In fact, the most poignant loss in my memory is a beautiful 3 y/o TH asking $260, we bid $280, was sold for $310!!
At any rate, NOW (FREAKING FIGURES) We thought the value of our house would keep going up so we could refi this horrible mortgage (2/6 ARM. ugh.) within a year's time... Nope. Value is up to *maybe* $315 (and only b/c we put $10K of new windows in). We need it to go up to $340 before it makes any sense to refi.
So, anyway - HI, I'd like to introduce myself as one of those people who got TOTALLY SCREWED in this!!!!
Assuming that isn't sarcasm, how do you figure you got screwed? After 10k of windows your home has gone up in value, by your estimation, another $15k over 1 year. That isn't bad.Bluepeapod said:So, anyway - HI, I'd like to introduce myself as one of those people who got TOTALLY SCREWED in this!!!!
itsbob
I bowl overhand
That, and in a "normal" market it would take 6 or 7 years to reach the break even point.. where your house has gained enough value where you could refinance/ sell and still make up for the money you spent on closing, realtor fees.. etc.. Here, you'll still do it in half that time, even in the "down" market.
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
Bluepeapod said:We just moved here August 2005 b/c we couldn't even THINK about affording a house in 2006. The ppl we bought our house from bought it 10 years ago at $115K and sold it to us for $290K. When we got this one, it was the 4th one we had put a contract on before we won one! In fact, the most poignant loss in my memory is a beautiful 3 y/o TH asking $260, we bid $280, was sold for $310!!
At any rate, NOW (FREAKING FIGURES) We thought the value of our house would keep going up so we could refi this horrible mortgage (2/6 ARM. ugh.) within a year's time... Nope. Value is up to *maybe* $315 (and only b/c we put $10K of new windows in). We need it to go up to $340 before it makes any sense to refi.
So, anyway - HI, I'd like to introduce myself as one of those people who got TOTALLY SCREWED in this!!!!
You didn't get screwed. You screwed yourself. No market made you choose a highly risky ARM. Thats just as bas as the people crying the economy screwed them because their dumb arse decided that since they couldn't afford a house, they would zero percent finance at a variable interest rate and now they have no equity to even begin to refinance at as their interest rates rise.
somdrenter
Sorry, I'm not Patch...
C
czygvtwkr
Guest
I dont think it will ever go as crazy as it did just two years ago. There was a combination of reasons then. The largest of which include the very low interest rates and the developement limitation that the county comission put on new houses being built in St Marys (must be room in schools before a house is built). Since the developement law is already here and the Fed may never lower rates that far again for a long time I doubt that we will see anything like that ever again. Not to mention that people have to be able to afford the house they buy, they can only go so high.