Dean on...

[Larry Gude]

...the scene.

Howard is starting to snowball. There are two stories linked to Drudge today talking about his whirlwind fundraising tour, the Clinton-esque sums, his commanding lead in New Hampshire and just how unprecedented it all is.

I saw him on Blitzer (Wolfgang) this past weekend and he is really getting his act down, very Presidential sounding and very un-like the fireball stuff that got him started. His stances are already softening, he is going pro war (I supported this and that)for all the ones that are going well, first Gulf War, Afghanistan, Al Queda and only harping that Iraq is fine for us to be doing now except W oversold it and isn't coming clean about this and that. Certainly sons and daughters wouldn't be dying under President Dean.

Very nuanced stuff. Even his deflection of criticism from fellow dems is confident and reserved. He pointed out that Leiberman knows his campaign is in trouble and that Joe needs to make waves. Very matter of fact tone in that Joe is doing what he has to and that it's OK with Howard.

At this rate, we can call of the primaries and watch Howard woo liberal blacks, Unions and Hispanics all fall and winter.

I know no one cares right now but Dean is doing a hell of a job and I'm interested.

 

[vraiblonde]

Sorry, musta missed the "Presidential" interviews. Every time I see him on TV he looks like he has to fart. Just this weird pixillated look on his face.

 

[SamSpade]

He looks like another Clinton.

My BIGGEST peeve about Clinton has always been, I felt as thought the press SOLD him to us. He was doing lousy, way behind in the polls but it was clear the networks wanted him. They convinced the viewership that HE was the one they should look at even if no one was paying attention.

 

[Bruzilla]

I gotta disagree with you Sam. Clinton won because when he was down in the polls he would just campaign his a$$ off! When it looked like he wasn't going to win in New Hampshire, he was campaigning twice as much as anyone else, and he did the same thing in every other state.

I do agree that Dean is the current media darling, and is reaping the benefits of that status. Since he's been so over-the-top in his rhetoric it'll be interesting to see how moderates relate to him should he win the primaries.

 

[SamSpade]

Clinton may have done those things - but he WAS clearly the media darling before New Hampshire. He came in SECOND in New Hampshire and poof! he's the 'frontrunner'. Now watch this time around. Dean will lose in all of the initial caucuses and primaries but he'll still get all the media attention. Clinton didn't win in Iowa, Maine or New Hampshire and trailed in the polls but they still called him a frontrunner.

 

[Larry Gude]

Howard...

...is going to win New Hampshire HUGE unless he does something dramatically stupid. Everything is going his way right now and only he can stop himself while the party establishment is flaying about trying to get some sort of traction.

He's got the money and he's got the momentum from a ton of left of center white libs who just despise W and he knows he's the front runner which is why he is working on his tone and bearing.

It will be interesting to watch all his Bush haters try to keep their mouths shut as Dean softens his stances to woo the moderates who always decide who will be President.

It'll be REALLY interesting to see how long the Clintons can stay out of trouble as Deans power consolidates and their power wanes and Terry McCaullife, the DNC boss, becomes marginalized. Seems Dean and Terry simply hate each other.

As far as Clinton goes, I see no comparison to Dean. Clinton was/is the master at speaking to all sides and making them feel his is listening all while actually saying nothing. Dean sticks his foot in his mouth all the time.

Interesting stuff.

 

[Bruzilla]

I agree with ya' Larry... Dean is going to win big in New Hampshire. The only thing that got Clinton noticed by the media was the fact he was screwing his wife's hairdresser. They were all swarming around him like sharks waiting for the big bow-out that they expected, but Clinton outsmarted them, took his case to the people, lied his a$$ off, and prevailed.

I heard about a poll yesterday that said that 60%+ of Democrats think that Bush will be re-elected. The concensus was that there are a lot of Democrats who are supporting Dean, even though he would be a "suicide vote" in the general election, as a way to send a message to the DNC for the 2008 election. Basically, they're going to support Dean in the primaries, cry through the general election, and hope for a strident Liberal in 2008.

 

[Larry Gude]

I dunno...

...bout dat, Bruz, the "message vote" scenario.

It is my humble opinion that Young Billy C feels that his real calling and legacy was/is to build a lasting power structure in the Democratic party to move the image (and attendent electability) to right of left, thus the DLC, Gores Presidency, Mcauliffe and Sen. Hillary.

Right now, Dean threatens all of what remains. Gore lost but Hillary won. If Dean wins the nomination and is viable, does well, as he is becoming and starting to look like, he will earn the power to change the entire power structure that Bill has built, meaning the Clintons lose control over the fundraising apperatus and all the favors and power than they now dispense and/or control.

A strong showing for Dean ruins everything for Hillary in 2008. He runs again if he loses close or becomes the King Maker for the next front runner if he loses by enough to have had his fill as long as he doesn't melt down. He wins, obviously that ain't good for our Girl Hill either.

So, I see no real choice, unless they can find some other way to cripple Dean, but for Hillary to get in, maybe late, with the goal of finishing a strong second to Dean and not alienate his base while leaving him looking to liberal to win thus W cleans his clock and he is out of the way in 2008.

The hopes that Dean would ruin himself are starting to very iffy. Dean is showing a strong desire to actually win meaning he will do what he's gotta do, a la Clinton.

 

[Ken King]

Of course Dean is on the move. What else is there for him to do? Of all the candidates on the Democratic trail he is the only one able to devote 100% of his time to campaigning. This is his full time job.

I’ve been looking at this guy a lot lately. There are some good things and bad. Of those running I would say that he has the best package being offered up. He was a governor and doctor, his state had a balanced budget (to include statewide health insurance coverage for the children), he’s from Park Avenue (raised there and worked on Wall Street in his early life), he understands big business and big money, he is big on the environment, and he is not an anti-gun nut. When you look at the whole picture, I would say he is a serious contender and the Bush folks need to look out.

The only bad thing I have found, at least for me, was his staunch stance against the war with Iraq. But after reading about his brother’s death in Laos back in 1974, and listening to this reasoning behind his stance, I do understand his position (even if I don’t agree with it). It ought to be an interesting next 5 or 6 months up until the primaries.

 

[Larry Gude]

I'm telling you...

...Dean is the guy and I'm not saying this because I want him to be the guy, as in 'easy to beat'.

Kerrey is an absolute joke after his performances this weekend.

Leiberman is the answer to a "Snapple" interesting fact lid.

Gephardt? come on.

Clark will angle for the Veep job under Dean and all will gather round to support the guys come election time.

Only two things will prevent us from having one hell of a race:

1. Saddam turns up dead and Iraq is clearly moving successfully towards democracy and stabilization, the people are clearly doing well.

2. The economy continues to rebound and good jobs start becoming available.

#1 is simply not likely. We got a tall task on order here because so few people have any interest in success. Not impossible, just unlikely. #2 is taking care of itself, as it usually does.

Possible #3 in all this is Osama. He turns up dead, great. He stays uncomfirmed AND another serious attack occurs...

Dean might have the time to do all this running but Dick has been running since '88 while Kerrey, (especially) and Lieberman barely have day jobs. Dean has the time AND he has been doing a good job with that time.

The wild card is what will the Clintons do? If Hillary really wants to be President (safe bet, yes?) and Bill still wants to run the party then they can't afford a Dean win or even great showing. It is starting to look to late for them to sabotage Howard, he's getting that strong.

Dean is forcing everyones hand. His greatest achievement, if he doesn't win, is showing just how wrong minded our campaign finance laws are.