Chasey_Lane
Salt Life
Too bad for them - they are already screwed on that deal.rdkarob said:
Drop in Home Prices Forecast....
- Thread starter Pandora
- Start date
Chasey_Lane
Salt Life
Gov't housing is in that neighborhood (townhomes).rdkarob said:
Chasey_Lane
Salt Life
Check out this house in that neighborhood. www.homesdatabase.com and MLS # SM6477581.rdkarob said:
Toxick
Splat
itsbob said:
I've been keeping my eye on the Tucson Arizona area. Living in the city is cheaper than living here, and living in the bedroom communities is way cheaper than here. (A 4 bedroom 2 bth with 2 car garage in Green Valley AZ runs around $900/mo to rent.) Tucson's economy is fairly bustling.
Same with Santa Fe/Albuquerque (I was paying close attention there too, because I was considering a job there). I was looking at a 4 bedroom 2-1/2 bathroom house wtih 1500sqft there not counting the two car garage in a decent area in a good school district for about $180K. In the city.
Other places I peeked at, but did less research: Illinois. Texas. Utah. All were cheaper at a glance, although I didn't dig too deeply in those places. I was pretty focused on Arizona and New Mexico.
Hawkeyewife
New Member
Does anybody have the number of foreclosures in St Mary's for 2007, 2006 etc? I think that is a pretty good indicator of how healthy the market is. In many of the DC suburbs, the number of foreclosures in the first six months of this year has far surpassed the number for previous years. Jim Cramer was freaking out about this the other day. It will be interesting to see what happens. I am not in the business of buying/selling homes but I do have a BS in Economics and I see one of two things happening:
1. Housing prices will fall as interest rates are increased by the Fed, causing a shake-up in the housing and mortgage industries, possible recession resulting in the rest of the economy
or
2. The Fed will sacrifice the value of the dollar and decrease interest rates (ever thought you could buy a home with a 3% interest rate?) to keep the bottom from falling out of the housing market, though we'll probably still see a decrease in the price and of course inflation will also take over so a lack of price decrease will not make any difference in real dollars anyway.
Just a thought. Fascinating though and boy am I glad we didn't buy when we relocated here in Nov 2006.
1. Housing prices will fall as interest rates are increased by the Fed, causing a shake-up in the housing and mortgage industries, possible recession resulting in the rest of the economy
or
2. The Fed will sacrifice the value of the dollar and decrease interest rates (ever thought you could buy a home with a 3% interest rate?) to keep the bottom from falling out of the housing market, though we'll probably still see a decrease in the price and of course inflation will also take over so a lack of price decrease will not make any difference in real dollars anyway.
Just a thought. Fascinating though and boy am I glad we didn't buy when we relocated here in Nov 2006.
itsbob
I bowl overhand
Why would foreclosures be indicative of the health of the housing market?Hawkeyewife said:
Wouldn't future sales and new builds be more of an indicator?
I would think the amount of foreclosures would be indicative of how many stupid people bought into mortgages they couldn't afford in the first place.
Unless you bought into an ARM the purchase price nor the payment goes up, and I would assume we aren't seeing a mass reduction in take home pay (another indicator of an economy going South), so the only excuse for an increase in foreclosures is people buying houses they couldn't afford in the first place.
somdrenter
Sorry, I'm not Patch...
Housing starts are up from 2002. That’s right fellas. Keep building.FromTexas said:
Are foreclosures up since 2002?
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
Yes, but at less than 3% of the total economy, the subprime market isn't going to cause us any pain even if the entire thing went bust. Look at the article by Ben Stein that I posted in a thread a little down from this one which demonstrates even at a worst case scenario, foreclosures would only be 1% of the entire mortgage lending market. The lending part of this market (packaged bonds/etc) can eat 1% like a piece of candy.somdrenter said:
No gloom and doom. No
...Most of the problem is perception... not reality. Of course, doom and gloom makes print and the Jim Cramers of the world like you to feel rattled so you will watch their show, make their hedgie friends money, etc...
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
Don't forget home sales are at or above 2002, also. That is the key second point of that equation. So, again, what was the housing disaster we had in 2002? Oh, there wasn't one. It was considered a good market. Just because people aren't getting the 10-30% YoY returns they did previously, it is now a bad market... again, think perception... not reality.somdrenter said:
itsbob
I bowl overhand
It's a monthly measure of signed contracts for the sale of existing homes which is produced by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
According to the NAR, "A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed."
Since existing-home sales are counted when the transaction is closed, the NAR developed the pending home sales index (PHSI) as a leading indicator of existing-home sales (EHS).
A rising index depicts economic strength; a declining index reflects economic weakness.
Washington Post 1 Aug 2007:
Pending sales of existing homes rose by 5 percent in June compared with the previous month, a surprisingly positive sign for the beleaguered housing market, a real-estate trade group said Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors said it was the largest monthly gain in more than three years and that increases in pending sales were reported across the country.
According to the NAR, "A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed."
Since existing-home sales are counted when the transaction is closed, the NAR developed the pending home sales index (PHSI) as a leading indicator of existing-home sales (EHS).
A rising index depicts economic strength; a declining index reflects economic weakness.
Washington Post 1 Aug 2007:
Pending sales of existing homes rose by 5 percent in June compared with the previous month, a surprisingly positive sign for the beleaguered housing market, a real-estate trade group said Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors said it was the largest monthly gain in more than three years and that increases in pending sales were reported across the country.
somdrenter
Sorry, I'm not Patch...
So, these folks would rather foreclose than sell the house? I wouldn’t think so. They can’t sell. They have too much competition (from others in the same circumstances and from the builders who continue to build) And/or they owe more than the house is worth, due to an ARM, HELOC, REFI and/or dropping prices.
Where would you get these future sales numbers? The NAR has called the bottom several different times now and home builders continue to revise their forecast based on current trends. Some homes builders don’t see a bottom until 2009.
Exactly. Salaries have not kept in step with housing prices, it was the EZ, no money down, toxic mortgages that kept prices inflated. As lenders implode and lending standards tighten, the buyer pool shrinks. As foreclosures increase, those homes add to the already bloated inventory and those that loose their home will not be buying anytime soon.
somdrenter
Sorry, I'm not Patch...
FromTexas said:Yes, but at less than 3% of the total economy, the subprime market isn't going to cause us any pain even if the entire thing went bust. Look at the article by Ben Stein that I posted in a thread a little down from this one which demonstrates even at a worst case scenario, foreclosures would only be 1% of the entire mortgage lending market. The lending part of this market (packaged bonds/etc) can eat 1% like a piece of candy.
No gloom and doom. No
Most of the problem is perception... not reality. Of course, doom and gloom makes print and the Jim Cramers of the world like you to feel rattled so you will watch their show, make their hedgie friends money, etc...
Are you talking real estate or the economy? The DOW has recently ebbed and flowed on the tip of a pin due to the mortgage debacle. Last week AHM, next week Accredited Home Lenders(LEND).The big box stores have felt the affects of slipping home prices (Lowes/HD). Is it a factor for the economy? And it’s time to move passed sub-prime, we’re talking ALT-A lenders now. AHM was considered ALT-A by many…
..And this just in, FED holds rates……again. Can’t lower to save the mortgage industry thus devaluing the dollar even further, can’t raise to save the dollar thus dooming the mortgage industry……
But the largest factor of that 1%, is the over 2 Million folks likely to face foreclosure. (7 Million according to folks like Jim) Speaking of Mr. Cramer, like I said before, I think he’s crazy. But quite a few sheeple heard him say “just walk away from your home”. These are the same sheeple that applied for, and received toxic loans.
somdrenter
Sorry, I'm not Patch...
The FED held rates todayHawkeyewife said: