Drop in Home Prices Forecast....

[Wickedwrench]

Yes, do you have any idea why homes are listed for 1K? TIA if you know

Well I'll be damned.

 

[StarCat]

Did you ckick on the mortgage calculator? It's $10.11 a month.

Yeah lol I wish someone would tell me why they are listed like that. It cant be a rental payment or anything since it says "for sale" so I dunno.

 

[StarCat]

Well I'll be damned.

Awww I meant funny good, not funny bad.

 

[jazz lady]

I don't know. I'd ask a neighbor but they're all leaving.

I just thought it was the dead raccoon in my woods but now I know what it really is. Please God, let me be upwind of him today.

 

[czygvtwkr]

I looked at 10 houses, all in the 230-270k price range and out of those 10 5 have been on the market for 4-6 months.

 

[somdrenter]

I looked at 10 houses, all in the 230-270k price range and out of those 10 5 have been on the market for 4-6 months.

Check out the inventory trends since 2003.

http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/index.cfm

St. Mary’s has more than doubled in inventory since last year (currently 611 homes on the market, this time last year was 280)

Absolutely no need to pay anything close to asking price these days. There’s plenty of inventory to take your time and have the seller make concessions.

 

[Claff]

Did you ckick on the mortgage calculator? It's $10.11 a month.

Finally, something I can afford.

 

[itsbob]

So in 2004 During the BOOM avg days on market was 51.. last year during said DECLINE average time on market was 41.. how does a 20% decrease in time on market add up to a bubble bursting??

Now the average for homes sold in April is 66.. again the boom was 51, so a two week longer wait.. big deal.. ANd the price of the homes is still up 6.5%.. a sign of normalizing, not a bubble bursting..

You go and ask for concessions, at less then market value, see how many houses you can buy.. according to the statistics YOU provided, average sale price is STILL >97% of asking price.. there maybe one or two out there that HAVE to sell.. but most are just selling to get into something nicer and bigger. They'll wait. Of course if I had to give you a 3% concession to sell you my house so I could spend my 150K equity.. I'd probably do it.

 

[somdrenter]

So in 2004 During the BOOM avg days on market was 51.. last year during said DECLINE average time on market was 41.. how does a 20% decrease in time on market add up to a bubble bursting??

Now the average for homes sold in April is 66.. again the boom was 51, so a two week longer wait.. big deal.. ANd the price of the homes is still up 6.5%.. a sign of normalizing, not a bubble bursting..

You go and ask for concessions, at less then market value, see how many houses you can buy.. according to the statistics YOU provided, average sale price is STILL >97% of asking price.. there maybe one or two out there that HAVE to sell.. but most are just selling to get into something nicer and bigger. They'll wait. Of course if I had to give you a 3% concession to sell you my house so I could spend my 150K equity.. I'd probably do it.

Inventory=Supply
Homes sold=Demand

Home sales are stagnating
Inventory is a all time high

Simple Econ 101

Why would I take your 3% concession? I have 610 other homes to chose from.

No doubt, you will have some equity. But only what the buyer will allow you to have.

 

[ylexot]

Inventory=Supply
Homes sold=Demand

Home sales are stagnating
Inventory is a all time high

Simple Econ 101

Why would I take your 3% concession? I have 610 other homes to chose from.

No doubt, you will have some equity. But only what the buyer will allow you to have.

I think his point was that home sales are not stagnating. :shrug:

 

[vraiblonde]

I wish I had a ton of money right now. I'd grease some palms to get permits, then put up a subdivision with 1500 sq. ft. 3 BR 2BA brick homes - for sale only, NO rentals. Put a price tag of $120,000 on them and wait the 15 minutes it would take to sell every single one of them.

There is housing going up like a maniac in our little burg but it's all these $500k+ beasts. This effectively prices young couples getting started out of the market - husband makes $50k and wife is home with a squab or two, they CANNOT afford to buy a home in this area unless they get a 50 year mortgage or something stupid like that.

So it seems to me that a smart developer would stop doing what everyone else is doing and put up smaller homes to broaden the market.

 

[somdrenter]

I think his point was that home sales are not stagnating. :shrug:

Then his point would be wrong.

Looking at trends from 2003

Inventory is Increasing

Prices are increasing

Home sales are flat, if not almost negative

 

[Larry Gude]

Dirty secret...

I wish I had a ton of money right now. I'd grease some palms to get permits, then put up a subdivision with 1500 sq. ft. 3 BR 2BA brick homes - for sale only, NO rentals. Put a price tag of $120,000 on them and wait the 15 minutes it would take to sell every single one of them.

There is housing going up like a maniac in our little burg but it's all these $500k+ beasts. This effectively prices young couples getting started out of the market - husband makes $50k and wife is home with a squab or two, they CANNOT afford to buy a home in this area unless they get a 50 year mortgage or something stupid like that.

So it seems to me that a smart developer would stop doing what everyone else is doing and put up smaller homes to broaden the market.

Assume a $500,000 house, 7%, 10% down;

Monthly P/I;

15 year; $4,000
20 year; $3,500
30 year; $3,000
40 year; $2,800
50 year; $2,700


Most people are 15 or 30 year and the cash flow difference is large; $1,000 a month.

Going out to 40 or even 50 ain't gonna help that much and if two or three hundred bucks even matters on a mortgage that big, you have no business in that expensive a house.

 

[onebdzee]

I wish I had a ton of money right now. I'd grease some palms to get permits, then put up a subdivision with 1500 sq. ft. 3 BR 2BA brick homes - for sale only, NO rentals. Put a price tag of $120,000 on them and wait the 15 minutes it would take to sell every single one of them.

The company that bought the land where the old "Ltown dairy" is had the same idea....only difference is the price tag is $400k

From what I hear(and this just might be rumor), they are putting 300 new homes on that land

 

[Wickedwrench]

The company that bought the land where the old "Ltown dairy" is had the same idea....only difference is the price tag is $400k

From what I hear(and this just might be rumor), they are putting 300 new homes on that land

That was a pretty piece of land.

 

[Wickedwrench]

I just thought it was the dead raccoon in my woods but now I know what it really is. Please God, let me be upwind of him today.

You stick around me for other reasons then.

 

[Pete]

I saw a realtor sign in my neighborhood yesterday just around the corner. .75 acres, 3Br, 2 1/2 Ba, no garage $330K.

I have 1.5 acres, 4Br, 2 1/2 Ba, garage and paid $199K in June 2003. I am happy

 

[bresamil]

I saw a realtor sign in my neighborhood yesterday just around the corner. .75 acres, 3Br, 2 1/2 Ba, no garage $330K.

I have 1.5 acres, 4Br, 2 1/2 Ba, garage and paid $199K in June 2003. I am happy

A friend of mine just bought a house near yours.

 

[ylexot]

Then his point would be wrong.

Looking at trends from 2003

Inventory is Increasing

Prices are increasing

Home sales are flat, if not almost negative

Exactly which reports are you looking at?

St Mary's County Year End Real Estate Trend Indicator - <$30K to >$500K Format (from the link you provided):
2005
Total Units Sold: 1,731
Average Days on Market: 41
2004
Total Units Sold: 1,446
Average Days on Market: 51
2003
Total Units Sold: 1,450
Average Days on Market: 42
2002
Total Units Sold: 1,358
Average Days on Market: 74

Yeah, that looks oh-so-stagnant

 

[vraiblonde]

Yle, that's for 2005 and the middle of the housing boom. 2006 is going to be a different story, trust me.