Drop in Home Prices Forecast....

[Gwendolyn]

So you can buy and pay 2000 a month for the next 20- 30 years

You can't get a house down here for less than $2000 sadly. In Ohio we had a huge house with a three car detached garage for $726 with everything escrowed. In Erie it was $1175. Here it's $1987 for less of a house. It's just nuts. I don't understand what is here to justify the prices. I'd gladly pay that much for DC but St. Mary's county?

We are renting from people while they are stationed someplace else because I wasn't paying those prices. We are only here for 4 years anyway. You shouldn't buy if you aren't going to stay for at least 5 years.

 

[ylexot]

You can't get a house down here for less than $2000 sadly.

first page of the homes for sale classifieds...
http://classifieds.somd.com/cgi-bin/classifieds.cgi?db=j_realestate&session_key=&search_and_display_db_button=on&results_format=long&db_id=4913&query=retrieval

 

[czygvtwkr]

$1700 A month here, yea its higher than it should be but hey what are you going to do.

A big part of the increase is the laws of St Marys county regarding rural and developement areas, the "critical area" BS, and the no houses can be built until there is room in the schools for the kids. These laws were passed by a county comission that had lots to gain by the increase in property prices in St Marys county.

 

[Gwendolyn]

first page of the homes for sale classifieds...
http://classifieds.somd.com/cgi-bin/classifieds.cgi?db=j_realestate&session_key=&search_and_display_db_button=on&results_format=long&db_id=4913&query=retrieval

Yeah I meant in places I'd let my kids go outside.

 

[somdrenter]

This is the guy who has admitted to manipulating the markets for himself and his hedge fund buddies by shorting stock and causing a stir in both his book and in an interview. Yet, he is a trustable source!

My point exactly. This guy is off his rocker. Just a few months ago he was pushing REI stock, “no sub-prime melt down…will not spread to ALT-A etc..etc.” Of course, this looks like a classic pump and dump.

But he does have a following. The same Joe Sixpack that bought off on the I/O, negative amortized, adjustable rate mortgage at 4x income, has just heard from his financial guru to walk away and send the bank some “jingle mail”. Hilarious clip, but I think you may have mistaken this one with the “Armageddon” video.

 

[somdrenter]

You are right. Screw the research. They are only professionals.

Yep, professionals in which their commission depends on the buyer paying as much as possible for a product. No thanks, I'll do my own research.

 

[FromTexas]

Yep, professionals in which their commission depends on the buyer paying as much as possible for a product. No thanks, I'll do my own research.

Two questions:

1) Are housing starts and home sales at or slightly above what they were in 2002?

2) If you say, "yes" (the only right answer), was there a housing scare in 2002 or was the market considered good?

 

[itsbob]

You can't get a house down here for less than $2000 sadly. In Ohio we had a huge house with a three car detached garage for $726 with everything escrowed. In Erie it was $1175. Here it's $1987 for less of a house. It's just nuts. I don't understand what is here to justify the prices. I'd gladly pay that much for DC but St. Mary's county?

Go check the prices in DC and you'll see how great a deal you are getting down here.

Multiply the price of house by 3 (minimum) for a house in a decent neighborhood in DC compared to one in say Leanardtown or Dameron. Now if you want to live in a neighborhood where you go to sleep being serenaded by by the report of handguns and sirens, you MIGHT be able to get by with paying double of what you would pay here.

 

[This_person]

Go check the prices in DC and you'll see how great a deal you are getting down here.

Multiply the price of house by 3 (minimum) for a house in a decent neighborhood in DC compared to one in say Leanardtown or Dameron. Now if you want to live in a neighborhood where you go to sleep being serenaded by by the report of handguns and sirens, you MIGHT be able to get by with paying double of what you would pay here.

And, divide by 2 or three the price of a house here for what it would be over 90% of the country. We're too close to DC, and some people can commute. People can't afford to live here if they don't work on base, work for the nuclear plant, or commute. The people who've lived here their whole life have the advantage of family selling or giving them land, and the connections to get houses built. Someone here as a blue collar worker (say, an enlisted person at the base) has an enourmously hard time making it.

 

[itsbob]

And, divide by 2 or three the price of a house here for what it would be over 90% of the country. We're too close to DC, and some people can commute. People can't afford to live here if they don't work on base, work for the nuclear plant, or commute. The people who've lived here their whole life have the advantage of family selling or giving them land, and the connections to get houses built. Someone here as a blue collar worker (say, an enlisted person at the base) has an enourmously hard time making it.

Divide by two or three, to live where? Where unemployment is in the double digits? Where the majority of the population is on welfare or steals from the "haves" to get by??

Anywhere in the country that has a thriving economy, as low unemployment as us, and a peaceful environment is going to cost the same or more, with VERY few exceptions.

I know of a place where I can buy a house for a less than a third of what i paid here, but I wouldn't voluntarily chose to live there, or raise my kids there.

 

[FromTexas]

Divide by two or three, to live where? Where unemployment is in the double digits? Where the majority of the population is on welfare or steals from the "haves" to get by??

Anywhere in the country that has a thriving economy, as low unemployment as us, and a peaceful environment is going to cost the same or more, with VERY few exceptions.

I know of a place where I can buy a house for a less than a third of what i paid here, but I wouldn't voluntarily chose to live there, or raise my kids there.

Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin... :shrug:

Thriving economies, low unemployment, and plenty of peaceful living environments. You can get nice homes in good suburbs for $150k or less in all those places ($100k is not unreasonable to find).

 

[somdrenter]

Go check the prices in DC and you'll see how great a deal you are getting down here.

Glad you mentioned DC. That area has seen multiple YOY price declines since Sept ‘06.

 

[Lugnut]

Glad you mentioned DC. That area has seen multiple YOY price declines since Sept ‘06.

How can you see MULTIPLE YoY (year over year) price declines in an 11 month period?

 

[This_person]

Divide by two or three, to live where? Where unemployment is in the double digits? Where the majority of the population is on welfare or steals from the "haves" to get by??

Anywhere in the country that has a thriving economy, as low unemployment as us, and a peaceful environment is going to cost the same or more, with VERY few exceptions.

I know of a place where I can buy a house for a less than a third of what i paid here, but I wouldn't voluntarily chose to live there, or raise my kids there.

It's actually a lot more common than you make it seem. Unemployment is extremely low throughout the country right now. "High" rates in most areas are lower than average rates of the 70's.

Where I work, the cost of living here is a main reason we're having problems getting and keeping people. Several people in my group sold their houses for three times what they paid in the early 90's, moved to jobs with comparable incomes in TN, NY, NC, SC, IL, and bought houses better than what they had here for cash (from selling their homes here) with money left over. Only one has come back, and that was very reluctantly for family reasons, not financial.

 

[somdrenter]

Two questions:

1) Are housing starts and home sales at or slightly above what they were in 2002?

2) If you say, "yes" (the only right answer), was there a housing scare in 2002 or was the market considered good?

-Housing starts plunge
Housing starts fall much more than forecast, lowest level since '97; permits also fall as single-family permits hit 6-year low.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
February 16 2007: 11:52 AM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Housing starts plunged in January to the slowest pace in more than nine years as the latest government reading on the battered housing market seemed to suggest it is not stabilizing as some had hoped.-

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/news/economy/housingstarts/index.htm

Even with this news, builders keep turning them out, only adding to the bloated inventory.

 

[FromTexas]

-Housing starts plunge
Housing starts fall much more than forecast, lowest level since '97; permits also fall as single-family permits hit 6-year low.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
February 16 2007: 11:52 AM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Housing starts plunged in January to the slowest pace in more than nine years as the latest government reading on the battered housing market seemed to suggest it is not stabilizing as some had hoped.-

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/news/economy/housingstarts/index.htm

Even with this news, builders keep turning them out, only adding to the bloated inventory.

I didn't ask if one month had an aberration. I asked if housing starts and home sales (realized annually) are at or above what they were in 2002? I notice you had to go way back to January to find that aberration which means you don't have anything else...

 

[somdrenter]

How can you see MULTIPLE YoY (year over year) price declines in an 11 month period?

Several months in a row in which YOY prices are lower compared to the same month last year.

 

[Lugnut]

Several months in a row in which YOY prices are lower compared to the same month last year.

Ah ok. I had annual stats stuck in my head.

 

[rdkarob]

Question about all this

I have a question about all this:

My friend is moving in a house that is costing her 390K, no down payment and she and her husband make about 100k a year, gross. After that they need to take out 700 a month in c/s. The mortgage company is getting them in at a fixed rate but how the heck are they qualifying. It boggles my mind. Also, they both have bankruptcy about 5 years ago. The house is being built now and should close in 4 months. The paperwork has not been sent to the underwriter yet, could they be building this house and excited about nothing?
How in the heck can they qualify, remember, no money down!!!
Thanks

 

[itsbob]

Glad you mentioned DC. That area has seen multiple YOY price declines since Sept ‘06.

And after the declines (?) how do their prices compare to SoMD??

A Rancher in a nice neighborhood goes for over a million... townhouses are 3/4 of a million and up..

Garden Condo's are going for 3/4 of a million to 3 million..

Price decline or not, they are WAY over what we are paying here.

I've lived in a lot of places over my lifetime, I'd say this area is worth the price. Great schools, great communities, lot of outdoor recreation..
oh, and of course the forums..