Oct. 30, 2002
In a race that began as a coronation for Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, U.S. Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. now has the edge in his quest to become the first Republican governor since Spiro T. Agnew was elected in 1966, according to a new independent poll.
The survey of 869 likely voters taken Oct. 26-28 by Potomac Survey Research, sponsored by The Gazette and The (Baltimore) Sun, shows Ehrlich with 46 percent and Townsend with 42 percent of the vote.
The margin of error is 3.4 percent. Twelve percent of likely voters are undecided.
Ehrlich continues to dominate in the rural areas of the state and the Baltimore suburbs while Townsend continues to run strongly in the Democratic bastions of Prince George's County, Montgomery County and Baltimore city. Her mentor, Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D), carried only those three jurisdictions in 1994 and 1998 when he won the governor's mansion.
In Montgomery, Townsend leads 58 percent to 36 percent; in Prince George's, 63 to 22, and in Baltimore city, 68 to 18.
However, Townsend has failed to build on her lead in those jurisdictions in the past month. The fact that her numbers are not soaring there indicates that "there's not something happening out there pretty profound and pretty emotional to really get these Democrats fired up here in the waning days of this campaign," said pollster G. Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research. The poll results indicate that the swelling of Democratic support for Glendening that won him the 1998 election is not happening this year, he said.
"If [Townsend] doesn't maximize turnout [in the three jurisdictions], she's not going to have enough numbers to offset how strong [Ehrlich] is throughout the rest of the state," Haller explained. Outside of the three largest jurisdictions, 59 percent of likely voters support Ehrlich.
Townsend spokesman Peter Hamm acknowledged that voter turnout would decide the election.
"It's absolutely critical because the evidence continues, every poll continues, to show this is a dead heat," he said. "There is no excuse for staying home" for voters who consider themselves progressives who favor better schools, protecting the environment, and gun control.
Shareese N. DeLeaver, a spokeswoman for Ehrlich, said the poll shows growing support for the congressman's campaign.
"We have a solid Republican base, and we have made significant inroads into getting the crossover vote," she said.
Glendening's dismal approval rating of 37 percent continues to drag on Townsend. His ratings have plummeted in the past two years along with the faltering economy and a series of personal scandals.
The two candidates have raised a record $16 million to finance their campaigns, with a slight edge to Ehrlich, according to campaign finance reports.
Millions of dollars in attack ads from both candidates appeared to be driving up each other's negatives with voters. Townsend's negatives continue a long upward trend, reaching 42 percent, up from 38 percent in September and 27 percent in January. Ehrlich's continue a swift rise to 32 percent from 27 percent in September and 9 percent in January. Ehrlich's favorable rating, however, cracks 50 percent for the first time, hitting 51 percent, while Townsend stays steady at 50 percent.
But in another sign of trouble for Townsend's campaign, the poll found moderates, independents and undecided voters all have favorable views toward Ehrlich.
Both candidates are campaigning hard in the three largest jurisdictions this week. Townsend toured Montgomery County on Tuesday, announcing she would expand the authority of the state's Handgun Roster Board to regulate and ban assault weapons before moving on to a town hall meeting Tuesday night with County Executive Douglas M. Duncan (D) at Highland View Elementary School. She will spend Thursday morning in Prince George's.
Ehrlich picked up an endorsement from the county's Fraternal Order of Police on Tuesday and has a "Democrats for Ehrlich" fund-raiser scheduled for tonight in Lanham. On Monday, he shook hands at the Addison Road Metro in Capital Heights and attended a luncheon at Flaps Restaurant in Potomac.
The key battleground for the campaign could be in Prince George's County, where the Maryland Poll shows 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, the largest block of undecided voters in the state. Next is Baltimore city, where 10 percent are undecided.
Townsend holds a 5-point edge among infrequent voters, while Ehrlich has a 7-point margin among the most likely voters.
The poll follows other surveys taken in the past month that show the gubernatorial race to be an extremely close one. A Washington Post poll showed a dead heat, and polls by Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications Inc. of Annapolis and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington showed the two candidates to be within a single point of each other.
In a race that began as a coronation for Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, U.S. Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. now has the edge in his quest to become the first Republican governor since Spiro T. Agnew was elected in 1966, according to a new independent poll.
The survey of 869 likely voters taken Oct. 26-28 by Potomac Survey Research, sponsored by The Gazette and The (Baltimore) Sun, shows Ehrlich with 46 percent and Townsend with 42 percent of the vote.
The margin of error is 3.4 percent. Twelve percent of likely voters are undecided.
Ehrlich continues to dominate in the rural areas of the state and the Baltimore suburbs while Townsend continues to run strongly in the Democratic bastions of Prince George's County, Montgomery County and Baltimore city. Her mentor, Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D), carried only those three jurisdictions in 1994 and 1998 when he won the governor's mansion.
In Montgomery, Townsend leads 58 percent to 36 percent; in Prince George's, 63 to 22, and in Baltimore city, 68 to 18.
However, Townsend has failed to build on her lead in those jurisdictions in the past month. The fact that her numbers are not soaring there indicates that "there's not something happening out there pretty profound and pretty emotional to really get these Democrats fired up here in the waning days of this campaign," said pollster G. Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research. The poll results indicate that the swelling of Democratic support for Glendening that won him the 1998 election is not happening this year, he said.
"If [Townsend] doesn't maximize turnout [in the three jurisdictions], she's not going to have enough numbers to offset how strong [Ehrlich] is throughout the rest of the state," Haller explained. Outside of the three largest jurisdictions, 59 percent of likely voters support Ehrlich.
Townsend spokesman Peter Hamm acknowledged that voter turnout would decide the election.
"It's absolutely critical because the evidence continues, every poll continues, to show this is a dead heat," he said. "There is no excuse for staying home" for voters who consider themselves progressives who favor better schools, protecting the environment, and gun control.
Shareese N. DeLeaver, a spokeswoman for Ehrlich, said the poll shows growing support for the congressman's campaign.
"We have a solid Republican base, and we have made significant inroads into getting the crossover vote," she said.
Glendening's dismal approval rating of 37 percent continues to drag on Townsend. His ratings have plummeted in the past two years along with the faltering economy and a series of personal scandals.
The two candidates have raised a record $16 million to finance their campaigns, with a slight edge to Ehrlich, according to campaign finance reports.
Millions of dollars in attack ads from both candidates appeared to be driving up each other's negatives with voters. Townsend's negatives continue a long upward trend, reaching 42 percent, up from 38 percent in September and 27 percent in January. Ehrlich's continue a swift rise to 32 percent from 27 percent in September and 9 percent in January. Ehrlich's favorable rating, however, cracks 50 percent for the first time, hitting 51 percent, while Townsend stays steady at 50 percent.
But in another sign of trouble for Townsend's campaign, the poll found moderates, independents and undecided voters all have favorable views toward Ehrlich.
Both candidates are campaigning hard in the three largest jurisdictions this week. Townsend toured Montgomery County on Tuesday, announcing she would expand the authority of the state's Handgun Roster Board to regulate and ban assault weapons before moving on to a town hall meeting Tuesday night with County Executive Douglas M. Duncan (D) at Highland View Elementary School. She will spend Thursday morning in Prince George's.
Ehrlich picked up an endorsement from the county's Fraternal Order of Police on Tuesday and has a "Democrats for Ehrlich" fund-raiser scheduled for tonight in Lanham. On Monday, he shook hands at the Addison Road Metro in Capital Heights and attended a luncheon at Flaps Restaurant in Potomac.
The key battleground for the campaign could be in Prince George's County, where the Maryland Poll shows 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, the largest block of undecided voters in the state. Next is Baltimore city, where 10 percent are undecided.
Townsend holds a 5-point edge among infrequent voters, while Ehrlich has a 7-point margin among the most likely voters.
The poll follows other surveys taken in the past month that show the gubernatorial race to be an extremely close one. A Washington Post poll showed a dead heat, and polls by Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications Inc. of Annapolis and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington showed the two candidates to be within a single point of each other.